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Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby TonyPrep » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 05:22:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('HumbleScribe', 'T')he difficulty I see in so many threads on this site is that people want everything to be black and white, either/or, when it seems clear that nothing of the kind can happen. Some conservation, some alternative fuels or blends, there is no 'magic bullet'. You can't do everything oil can do with natural gas. But you can do some things.

All assuming that we are at peak oil of course. I am agnostic on that.
But we will get to peak at some stage. We'll also get to peak gas, peak coal and peak any other finite resource. The black and white that you see is the cornucopians who all believe, without exception, that someone will think of something to defy the laws of physics, or at least no limits will happen in their lifetime. Theirs is the view of the dreamer. Unfortunately, most of the world seems to think that way.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby Quinny » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 06:00:26

I was considering purchasing an LPG car, so did a bit of research into them. a frined of mine did conversions for a while, making good money I asked him about the subject and he told me he'd given up because of reliability issues of conversions. although he was making really good money, the liability meant he was spending too much time on non-chargeable remedial work.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby HumbleScribe » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 06:38:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'B')ut we will get to peak at some stage. We'll also get to peak gas, peak coal and peak any other finite resource. The black and white that you see is the cornucopians who all believe, without exception, that someone will think of something to defy the laws of physics,


I'm interested in this statement. Which physical laws do you think it violates to suggest that there are alternative ways of ordering our society which need not involve using oil in exactly the same way as we do now? Our society survived without oil a century ago, and while I'm not suggesting we return to steam power, I am suggesting that there are always alternative ways of doing things. There's a poverty of imagination in some peak oil fundamentalists. We might have to use cars in a different way, move back to the city, take the train more, cycle a bit - my God, the future could really be THAT horrific!
If you think that, in the past, there was some golden age of pleasure and plenty to which you would, if you were able, transport yourself, let me say one single word: "dentistry." P.J. O'Rourke
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby TonyPrep » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 08:13:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('HumbleScribe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'B')ut we will get to peak at some stage. We'll also get to peak gas, peak coal and peak any other finite resource. The black and white that you see is the cornucopians who all believe, without exception, that someone will think of something to defy the laws of physics,
I'm interested in this statement. Which physical laws do you think it violates to suggest that there are alternative ways of ordering our society which need not involve using oil in exactly the same way as we do now? Our society survived without oil a century ago, and while I'm not suggesting we return to steam power, I am suggesting that there are always alternative ways of doing things. There's a poverty of imagination in some peak oil fundamentalists. We might have to use cars in a different way, move back to the city, take the train more, cycle a bit - my God, the future could really be THAT horrific!
I'm not suggesting that finding alternative ways of doing things defies physical laws. What defies those laws is the notion that economic growth can continue indefinitely, that we can indefinitely consume resources beyond their renewal rates and that we can continue to damage our environment with impunity.

What all of these substitute schemes are attempting is the impossible - to have BAU continue indefinitely. If that is not so, why are such schemes proposed?

Although there are questions as to whether natural gas can make up for declines in oil output, the attempt to do so is purely to attempt the impossible. There is no poverty of imagination in suggesting that we need to find a way to live sustainably, if we want some ordered transition from unsustainability. I'm sure that people would want such a transition if they could start thinking.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby Arthur75 » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 08:24:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '
')
What all of these substitute schemes are attempting is the impossible - to have BAU continue indefinitely. If that is not so, why are such schemes proposed?



Problem is that somehow as an individual a civilisation wants to continue living as long as possible, more or less knowing that it will one day die, a stable state if impossible is not necessarily desirable
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby Gerben » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 09:33:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I') was considering purchasing an LPG car, so did a bit of research into them. a frined of mine did conversions for a while, making good money I asked him about the subject and he told me he'd given up because of reliability issues of conversions. although he was making really good money, the liability meant he was spending too much time on non-chargeable remedial work.

This just means he should have sold higher quality products. Yes, that is more expensive.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby HumbleScribe » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 09:44:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')'m not suggesting that finding alternative ways of doing things defies physical laws. What defies those laws is the notion that economic growth can continue indefinitely, that we can indefinitely consume resources beyond their renewal rates and that we can continue to damage our environment with impunity.


Those are two different things. In post-industrial societies like ours, economic growth is largely a function of productivity growth, which is about doing things more efficiently.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')hat all of these substitute schemes are attempting is the impossible - to have BAU continue indefinitely. If that is not so, why are such schemes proposed?


Took me a while to figure out what you meant by BAU. I'm not up on the local jargon. 'Business as usual', I assume.

I don't see many people here advocating that 'BAU' can continue indefinitely. But I do see dozens of chicken littles who think that because we are in a period of transition, the world is going to hell in a handcart. Yet if you argue against them somehow you become a Big Oil Global Warming denying capitalist running dog lackey for even daring to suggest that the future might not be as bad as they paint it. This thread title is a case in point. No, natural gas won't be able to completely replace declining oil reserves, but it can do some of it, and other things can do other parts, and reducing our consumption will do the rest, enabling us to move on as we move - eventually, decades down the line - to a society without much oil.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby kiwichick » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 11:16:29

sure looks like it's going to hell to me

down here in oz the papers have just revealed
that Holden ( a GM subsidary) has had $A200
million line of credit made available to them by the
oz government ( read taxpayers )

plus the $A 179 million to build a "green " car

bailout on bailout for outdated tecnology
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby MattS » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 12:53:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattS', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')BTW, yes I do have a CNG filling station along my commute


I like the idea of filling in the garage myself, but I haven't bought the Civic yet. The wife wants a Prius instead.
If you have $50,000 for a 5,000 psi compressor then you might make it all the way to work. Otherwise with the 500 psi paint-sprayer kind you might make it to the corner and back.


Not all of us are ignorant of what type of compressor is required to fill a basic LNG tank. Links to such types of equipment has been presented to you before. Why do you pretend to have forgotten?
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby MattS » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 12:57:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')s we all know (due its inherent gaseous limitations) natural gas is difficult to deliver in a calorically dense state, and is thus used relatively near the main delivery trunk line (i.e in dense cities).


Tell it to the people in nowhere Montana who have a natural gas line straight to their door. Stop being ignorant of reality.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pstarr', '
')Also it must be compressed at its final destination. (That is why a bladder of gas at atmospheric pressure is useless.) Of course this expends a great deal of energy and thus the net-energy returned in such conditions is lousy and NG is not competitive for distributed auto use. (This is exasperated if the final destination is off the NG delivery grid. Then the gas must be compressed and trucked, decompressed into a local NG grid, and compressed again into the auto tank for decent mileage)


That same natural gas line and a fueling buddy means that here in the middle of nowhere Montana I can easily fill up any particular NG powered car to drive back and forth through Glacier NP. Stop being ignorant of reality.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PStarr', '
')What do you cornies think?



That you have been a hermit in the woods for too long.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby HumbleScribe » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 13:12:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')What do you cornies think?


To paraphrase Mississippi Burning:
"For a moment there Mr Starr it almost sounded as though we were on the same side."
If you think that, in the past, there was some golden age of pleasure and plenty to which you would, if you were able, transport yourself, let me say one single word: "dentistry." P.J. O'Rourke
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby HumbleScribe » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 13:41:07

I was mostly talking about the idea of natural gas vehicles being no panacea. But sure, I'm all for more trains. They do require government backing though - as did the highway network, lest we forget - and you're right that that is politically difficult for the US.
If you think that, in the past, there was some golden age of pleasure and plenty to which you would, if you were able, transport yourself, let me say one single word: "dentistry." P.J. O'Rourke
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby Gerben » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 15:21:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')s we all know (due its inherent gaseous limitations) natural gas is difficult to deliver in a calorically dense state, and is thus used relatively near the main delivery trunk line (i.e in dense cities).

Not necessarily a main delivery line. A smaller line works as well. Ofc. if you have a lot of cars running on natural gas, you'd have to expand the network.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lso it must be compressed at its final destination. (That is why a bladder of gas at atmospheric pressure is useless.) Of course this expends a great deal of energy and thus the net-energy returned in such conditions is lousy and NG is not competitive for distributed auto use.

It takes only a relatively small amount of energy. The net-energy return is much better than for oil to gasoline. Energetically and costwise NG is competititve for distributed auto use.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '(')This is exasperated if the final destination is off the NG delivery grid. Then the gas must be compressed and trucked, decompressed into a local NG grid, and compressed again into the auto tank for decent mileage)

That's why trucks leave their trailers at the gas station to fill the cars there. No decompression required.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever (and this is good news for you cornies out there) there is a potential transport application for un-compressed natural gas. That would be trains. Just as trains are capable of carrying their own coal fuel under advantageous conditions, so to might trains be capable of relying on (carrying) un-compressed gas. Why???? Because the main trunk could follow the train line and the trains could stop relatively often to refuel. The issue of expensive distributed end-use gas lines is mitigated.

What do you cornies think?

Let's hear it for public transportation! Hip hip hoorray!

Wait. Public transportation is socialistic. Never fly. forget it

CNG is used in trains, but uncompressed natural gas is not going to work. A car uses a fuel pump for liquid fuels. ICEs using uncompressed natural gas would need a compressor to inject the fuel in the engine. Also the storage volume would be too large. Even in ships NG is stored under pressure. Cars use 200 - 250 time compression (volume reduction). Pipelines also use higher pressures (upto 1,000 psi). You might want to store CNG on a lower pressure like 1,000 psi, but surely not less.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby TonyPrep » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 17:25:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', 'P')roblem is that somehow as an individual a civilisation wants to continue living as long as possible, more or less knowing that it will one day die, a stable state if impossible is not necessarily desirable
A stable state (or community or set of communities) is certainly desireable, in my opinion. Is it possible? Theoritically, I think it is. Is it likely? The chances are slim but that doesn't mean we should throw our hands up and do nothing. Collapse, in today's societies is probably not going to be pretty.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby TonyPrep » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 17:36:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('HumbleScribe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')'m not suggesting that finding alternative ways of doing things defies physical laws. What defies those laws is the notion that economic growth can continue indefinitely, that we can indefinitely consume resources beyond their renewal rates and that we can continue to damage our environment with impunity.
Those are two different things. In post-industrial societies like ours, economic growth is largely a function of productivity growth, which is about doing things more efficiently.
Two different things but very much linked. It is the pursuit of growth that has caused us to damage the environment. I don't know what you meant by your second point, at least in relation to what I wrote.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('HumbleScribe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')hat all of these substitute schemes are attempting is the impossible - to have BAU continue indefinitely. If that is not so, why are such schemes proposed?
I don't see many people here advocating that 'BAU' can continue indefinitely.
You haven't been here long. Almost all of the resource optimists do nothing but try to convince themselves, and others, just that.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('HumbleScribe', 'B')ut I do see dozens of chicken littles who think that because we are in a period of transition, the world is going to hell in a handcart. Yet if you argue against them somehow you become a Big Oil Global Warming denying capitalist running dog lackey for even daring to suggest that the future might not be as bad as they paint it. This thread title is a case in point. No, natural gas won't be able to completely replace declining oil reserves, but it can do some of it, and other things can do other parts, and reducing our consumption will do the rest, enabling us to move on as we move - eventually, decades down the line - to a society without much oil.What transition do you think is underway? Is it a transition to a sustainable civilisation? That's not what any of the resource optimists want; they want to continue economic growth and not have to adjust too drastically to a resource constrained world. Your characterisation of how the resource optimists are treated is off the mark. They are argued against because they appear not to understand that the earth is finite. They appear not to understand that, in general, the low hanging and best fruit is picked first. Certainly, most are AGW denialists, but only because that allows them to propose schemes such as we've seen here.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby MattS » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 18:29:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') find an occasional reminder of the futility of natural-gas transport in the USA to be an appropriate tonic to allay cornucopian-induced fevers. :lol:


I guess I should forget my days of converting small gasoline engines to run on natural gas, the complexity! The horror! The infinite expense!

In the 80's.

I'm sure its much more difficult now.

:lol:
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby HumbleScribe » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 19:20:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')t is the pursuit of growth that has caused us to damage the environment.


Yet the environment in western countries is pretty clean nowadays. And in the meantime we're much richer than we were.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'Y')ou haven't been here long.


And therefore my opinion can safely be discounted.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')lmost all of the resource optimists do nothing but try to convince themselves, and others, just that.


What do you class as an optimist? Is it 'optimistic' to suggest that peak oil (with the usual caveat that we may not be there) is not the end of Civilisation As We Know It? The resources are there, especially gas and coal. I am in favour of some adjustment to the way we consume them, but not because I think we are running out and we need to conserve them, but because I think otherwise the dislocation caused by climate change will be expensive.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')hat transition do you think is underway? Is it a transition to a sustainable civilisation? That's not what any of the resource optimists want; they want to continue economic growth and not have to adjust too drastically to a resource constrained world.


And that's the point of difference between us I think. I don't think that a susitainable civilisation is of necessity one that forgoes economic growth, or means living like medieval peasants or watching most of the world die. It just means some manageable adjustments to the way we do things. No, of course the world can't live as profligately as America does now. But then mostly it doesn't. Europe is a counter-example. But I see positive change happening in the US. I mean a few years ago the Bush government was still denying global warming was even happening.

You can live as profilgately as you like on renewable energy/resources. That is the transition we need to make, and I believe will make over the coming decades.
If you think that, in the past, there was some golden age of pleasure and plenty to which you would, if you were able, transport yourself, let me say one single word: "dentistry." P.J. O'Rourke
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby MattS » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 19:28:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Do you have numbers that counter my assertion?


Why? It appears your ability to add two numbers together and get the same answer on consecutive occasions is in doubt. You have been presented with both the approximate cost and requirements for an in-garage compressor to fuel a NG Civic in the past and pretend like A) you didn't check the link B) aren't capable of remembering having been provided the link or C) refuse to accept the reality of the world as presented through the link.

Compression is easy. Natural gas lines into quite a few American homes is historical fact. The combination of these two obvious pieces of information means I can fuel a NG car in my house, and if the operating cost of such a configuration is substantially less than me putting expensive, post peak oil into the tank of my car, I'll go do it, and someone will sell me the system

Unfortunately, because a side effect of peak conventional oil in 2005 appears to be happy motoring, I have no economic reason to do so.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby Maddog78 » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 20:31:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')our insult is not a response. Your blather is not intelligent.


No, he gave you the exact response you deserve.
If anybody's blather is not intelligent, well, just look in the mirror.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Postby TheDude » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 20:51:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattS', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Do you have numbers that counter my assertion?


Why? It appears your ability to add two numbers together and get the same answer on consecutive occasions is in doubt. You have been presented with both the approximate cost and requirements for an in-garage compressor to fuel a NG Civic in the past and pretend like A) you didn't check the link B) aren't capable of remembering having been provided the link or C) refuse to accept the reality of the world as presented through the link.


Can you run that by us again? I look for experienced info like this: Why I passed on Phill - Natural Gas Vehicle Owner Community

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ack to Phill, here is why it did not make sense for me:
Price:
$3,982 (list - dealers have no room to come down on this nor any real incentive to sell the product).
Again, used FM2's and FM'4s abound for about the same price. For $500 or so you can get one professionally refurbished.

Fueling Rate:
1/2 gallon equivalent per hour.
FM2's and FM'4s fill at 1 gallon equivalent per hour. If you often drive 100+ per day in your commute, little Phill simply won't keep up.

Lifespan:
Times out at 6,000 hours (3,000 gallons). Must send back to Fuelmaker for a $2,000 refurbish.
FM2's and FM'4s time out at 4,000 hours (4,000 gallons, equivalent to 8,000 on a Phill) but are infinitely rebuildable via a simple on site visit.


Would like to hear your experiences, did you knock something together DIY? Might make a good thread on its own, too.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ompression is easy. Natural gas lines into quite a few American homes is historical fact. The combination of these two obvious pieces of information means I can fuel a NG car in my house, and if the operating cost of such a configuration is substantially less than me putting expensive, post peak oil into the tank of my car, I'll go do it, and someone will sell me the system


In 2008 vehicles accounted for .13% of NG consumption; NGVs account for .048% of the total fleet, 120K on the road: Natural Gas Vehicles for America - NGVA. EIA says 2,765
trucks and buses. Talk about starting from scratch.

Later might run the numbers on what it would take to increase production to meet even a million NGVs; or what it would do to your bill - the people at the NGV forum I link above have plenty to say about that, including retailers hosing them.
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