by Outcast_Searcher » Sun 01 Jan 2023, 19:12:41
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'H')ell, Carnot. I just remembered one of my favorite stories. In the early 1990's I drilled horizontal wells into slowly producing conventional reservoirs in La. state waters. Did not increases proved reserves at all: just recovered the faster given the high flow rates of my hz wells. Overall increased company production from 10 million cubic feet per day to 50 million cf/d.
Hw did Wall Street respond: increased the stock price from $0.75/share to $5.00/share. And if you carefully read the fine print of our annual SEC filing we actually lost money on the wells: the total well cost was greater then the increase in net present value of the production.
Wall Sreet very often follows short term earnings trends (to the exclusion of LOTS of other important things) when valuing stock prices in the short term. Stupid, but true.
The problem is, reality and future forecasting being complex, it can be difficult to tell which prices are rational and which aren't. Generally you need to be an expert in the area being considered AND lucky enough not to get smacked by something (like new tech, geopolitics, etc) out of the blue to take advantage.
In my 40 years of investing, I've managed to do that a few times, but given the risk, only risked small amounts of capital in the ideas. (And my time of likely understanding small public software firms' primary product better than the market and the (supposed) analysts is WELL past).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.