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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 03 Aug 2009, 23:20:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')hat our natural gas consumption in several arenas--home heating, electrical generation, etc--continues to increase (at the expense of ecosystem health) is not cause for applause, and is certainly not a measure of peak-oil mitigation. It is irrelevant to the discussion.

A classic pstarr diversion. To wit: His very first sentence at the start of this thread was thus:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')here is an oft-unspoken assumption among the cornucopians that the recent upswing in natural gas production in the United States will somehow mitigate the effects of peak oil.

Now that he has been shown, beyond any reasonable doubt, that these unconventional gas plays can and are leading to increased production, all of a sudden it's not about "natural gas replac[ing] depleting petroleum reserves." Instead, he's now telling us he doesn't want natural gas production to increase, because it will harm the environment.

If you don't want natural gas production to increase because it will harm the environment, then you should simultaneously be jumping up and down with joy about "depleting petroleum reserves" because that, too, will help the environment. But as usual, you pretend you are "concerned" about depleting oil reserves and try to tell everyone else why they, too, should be concerned. But it is all pretense: If you were truly concerned about replacing depleting petroleum reserves, you would be jumping up and down with joy about the potential for natural gas to replace it. Instead you're pooh-poohing it, just as you pooh-pooh every other potential replacement. So in reality you aren't concerned one bit about depleting petroleum reserves, in fact you can't wait for the day. In brief, your whole arguments are a big, fat phony.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')re you kidding? You don't want to confuse with an LNG to an oil tanker, do you?

Nope, no confusion here. They're quite easy to tell apart! :lol:

Oil tanker
Image

LNG tanker
Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 03 Aug 2009, 23:45:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'G')reat! But we use natural gas for things we don't use oil for. Right? Not hard to understand?

And as has been explained to you ad nauseum, natural gas can be used for all the things you're saying it can't be used for. Not hard to understand.

Like oil, you can transport it by ship
Image

Like oil, you can transport it by pipeline. It's almost frictionless, too! :shock:
Image

In fact, it's already got a huge network of pipelines
Image

Like oil, you can fuel your car with it
Image

Like oil, you can fuel a truck with it
Image

And these cars and trucks can fill their tanks with NG at a filling station, just like gasoline and diesel
>>> Picture <<<

About the only thing you can do with oil that you can't do with natural gas is make lubricants from it. Oh well, it's not as if engine oil and other lubricants consume huge amounts of petroleum every year. If we switched everything else over to NG, there's plenty of oil in the tar sands to get our Pennzoil from!

But here's one thing you can do with natural gas that you can't do with oil: Burn it in your house:
Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby outcast » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 00:26:40

I see PStarr still hasn't given up trolling.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 07:26:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'I') see PStarr still hasn't given up trolling.


Feeding the troll's is a bad idea no matter who they are or what side they are on in any discussion.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby Maddog78 » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 08:31:48

Bwahaahahaaaaaa, this thread is very entertaining.
I'm not even going to get into it. OF2 has done a fine job.
This is no point in even debating pstarr. He wants his doom. He loves his doom. He needs his doom.
...........and nothing anybody says is going to get in the way of that.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 11:31:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')Image



And lets not forget boys and girls, this is the profile of a product we were running out of so fast in 1979 that LAWS WERE PASSED TO STOP THE USE OF IT.

Talk about Doomerville run amuck.....and of course...as usual...the expected result was....turns out there was so much that Hubbert can't even fit a bell shaped curve to this one.

Go OilFinder Go!!
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 12:27:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')ut here's one thing you can do with natural gas that you can't do with oil: Burn it in your house:
Image


Beg to differ, my Dad still heats with Fuel Oil (which is actually diesel fuel) and he had the option of a fuel oil burning hot water heater if he wanted to install one. They are still available if you burn oil and want one.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby Maddog78 » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 13:16:37

No wonder you said in another thread that you never leave your house.
There is doom everywhere! Doom! DOOM!


I'm going to gas up my car today and go for a long drive. It's cheap. They're practically giving it away.
I'm also going to get on a plane later this week. Have you seen air fares? Dirt cheap.
They're practically paying you to get on their plane. Life is good.
:-D
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 13:26:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '
')I'm going to gas up my car today and go for a long drive. It's cheap. They're practically giving it away.


I agree!! Doom! Doom everywhere!!

I filled up all 3 cars last week...and didn't create a spot shortage! This week its a roadtrip to Glacier NP to see if they are still there! I hope there aren't any shortages along the way!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '
')I'm also going to get on a plane later this week. Have you seen air fares? Dirt cheap.
They're practically paying you to get on their plane. Life is good.
:-D


But there is Doom in the air! Doom!

I'm going to be flying TWICE in the next month! To a NASCAR race! What happens if we run out while my plane is in the air! [smilie=5shocking.gif]
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 13:35:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')he head of IEA just admitted that peak is here. A nuclear physicist name Hirsch said there is not more time for your fun future. And you guys call me a troll. Laughable :)


Hubbert says we have thousands of years of nuclear isotopes to make up for whatever we lack in fossil fuels, I don't suppose Hirsch ever got around to refuting that particular EXPERT GEOSCIENCE opinion did he?

Pstarr you are a riot, you won't even take the word and work of the originator of the peak oil theory at face value...you only listen to what you naturally want to believe.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 13:39:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')he head of IEA just admitted that peak is here. A nuclear physicist name Hirsch said there is not more time for your fun future. And you guys call me a troll. Laughable :)


Hubbert says we have thousands of years of nuclear isotopes to make up for whatever we lack in fossil fuels, I don't suppose Hirsch ever got around to refuting that particular EXPERT GEOSCIENCE opinion did he?

Pstarr you are a riot, you won't even take the word and work of the originator of the peak oil theory at face value...you only listen to what you naturally want to believe.


short, we should cut pstarr some slack, I mean if you had wasted most of your life/money building some doomstead in the middle of nowhere for a doom that was never to happend you'd be pretty bitter as well.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 15:49:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'B')eg to differ, my Dad still heats with Fuel Oil (which is actually diesel fuel) and he had the option of a fuel oil burning hot water heater if he wanted to install one. They are still available if you burn oil and want one.

What I meant was, in an open flame like that stove. Yeah the house I grew up in was heated with oil, but you wouldn't want that oil fire goin' on in your house without a vent. Unless, of course, you don't mind some carbon monoxide poisoning. ;)
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 16:03:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'L')ike oil, you can fuel a truck with it
Image

Pretty picture. I don't notice it hauling anything. :lol: ICE NG technology is nothing special. There has to be other reasons why this abundant fuel source is not used for heavy hauling. Anyone hazard a guess?

Another totally stupid comment. :roll:

That's a PR pic by Freightliner. Freightliner only sells the cabs, they don't sell the containers. :roll:

But since you mentioned it, here's another one that's actually doing some hauling.

Image
>>> Freightliner Introduces its First Natural Gas Truck <<<

Here's a CNG garbage truck
Image
source

And another one. Some serious haulin' goin' on here.
Image
>>> Waste Management Grows Fleet of Natural Gas Garbage Trucks <<<

How many more pictures like this do I need to show until your denialist pbrain registers the fact that NG can, and already does, do heavy-duty hauling?
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 16:08:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'F')or those new to Peakoil this phenomena is best explained by the Law of Receding Horizons: any product (including energy) designed,developed, and/or manufactured with petroleum will cost more as the price of petroleum increases. Experiences over the last 9 years have.

Now you add on a peak-oil-induced financial collapse into the mix and you have a still-born LNG industry.

Then why is LNG profitable at, like, $2 per Btu? :lol: Must be those laws of receding horizons! :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 05:24:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'T')he article also points out that depening on your assumptions, just using NG available in the US, replacing ALL the gasoline used in cars in the US will allow NG to last for roughly 20 to 50 years.
That was a throw away figure that took no account of growth or of likely production rates.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 05:54:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')ut hey, since you like charts, perhaps I can show you this chart again:

Image
OF2, that is gross withdrawals, as I've pointed out to you before. The marketed production graph is significantly different and perhaps illustrates pstarr's point about the extra energy needed to produce the more difficult reserves. I admit, though, that even marketed production, in the US, has been increasing in recent years; I just wish you'd stop showing half the picture.

Image

(Edited to more closely match OF's graph)
Last edited by TonyPrep on Wed 05 Aug 2009, 06:15:13, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 06:06:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'H')ubbert says we have thousands of years of nuclear isotopes to make up for whatever we lack in fossil fuels, I don't suppose Hirsch ever got around to refuting that particular EXPERT GEOSCIENCE opinion did he?
This is a bit OT but there's an interesting article about nuclear on The Oil Drum. Here's the concluding paragraph:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e can thus conclude Part I: Nuclear Fission Energy Today, with the statement that publicly available official data are inconsistent with the widespread belief that the world is in a "Nuclear Energy Renaissance" phase. In reality, the data about uranium mining and the large number of aging nuclear reactors indicate that the trend of a 1% annual decrease of fission produced TWhe will continue at least up until 2015. In fact, the increasingly serious uranium supply situation might even lead to a forced nuclear shutdown of perhaps 5% of the world-wide reactors, most likely in countries without sufficient domestic uranium mining and enrichment facilities. Such a result would certainly end the widespread belief in a bright future for nuclear fission energy.
The article is by Michael Dittmar, a researcher with the Institute of Particle Physics of ETH Zurich, and he also works at CERN in Geneva.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby Maddog78 » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 09:00:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', ' ')I just wish you'd stop showing half the picture.



I got half a picture for you.
Over half the natural gas rigs are sitting in yards idle.
There is so much natural gas we are running out of room to store it all.
We've got wells that have been drilled that we haven't even fracced and put on line yet because there is no point right now.
You can throw pretty much any scenario of increased use at us you want and we will easily be able to meet demand for decades and this is just from lower 48 state shale gas.
Throw in LNG coming from Qatar for rumoured costs of a $1, multiple other LNG plants both operating and in the planning stages plus the Alaskan n. gas pipe line which could come on line in 5-10 years (even though it won't be needed) and there is n. gas supply for my grand kids kids and beyond.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 12:21:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '
')
You can throw pretty much any scenario of increased use at us you want and we will easily be able to meet demand for decades and this is just from lower 48 state shale gas.
Throw in LNG coming from Qatar for rumoured costs of a $1, multiple other LNG plants both operating and in the planning stages plus the Alaskan n. gas pipe line which could come on line in 5-10 years (even though it won't be needed) and there is n. gas supply for my grand kids kids and beyond.


Shhhhhh. Talk like that flies in the face of doomer prognostications of peak useful energy. It will make you VERY unpopular and produce lots of denial rhetoric and frownie faces. :wink:


Joining this site has amazed me. I expected folks to be (primarily) grappling with the implications of the FACTS behind changing energy technology. Instead it seems to largely revolve around folks defending their belief in their previously held core position with a persistence that equals any religion I've seen. (i.e. "discussions" on evolution science - sheesh)

As for me, I'm absolutely DELIGHTED that I've learned that NG appears poised to save our collective FANNIES - financially if not literally (for at least multiple decades), even if global crude oil shortages/prices get VERY ugly in coming years. And, I really appreciate folks like you and The Dude which provide thoughtful posts backed up by logic and data which the newbs who want to learn (like me) find very productive.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 12:34:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'T')he article also points out that depening on your assumptions, just using NG available in the US, replacing ALL the gasoline used in cars in the US will allow NG to last for roughly 20 to 50 years.
That was a throw away figure that took no account of growth or of likely production rates.


(I will assume you are in the doomer camp from this comment).


If you will review the figures published all over the place for the past decade, you'll see that dry NG supplies and production rates are generally accelerating upwards.

Meanwhile, the average doomer claim is that our global economic trend is down, or barely sideways in fits and starts at best, due to peak oil.

So, which is it? Massive growth or zero to negative growth? You can't just pick each facet of contradictory scenarios to fit the outcome you want and expect your position to have any credibility - not when the facts are as clear as those for dry NG.

(I understand the doomer concerns about other technologies like solar reaching meaningful size and efficiency quickly enough (IMO the jury is definitely still out for those) -- I'm JUST talking about dry NG here).
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