$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '3')). Geez - how much NG do you want before you consider it viable for exploitation? The 2007 EIA proved reserves annual report shows US dry NG reserves at over 237.7 TCF. And these reserves have increased every year for the last decade and the trend is accelerating. With all the good supply news from shale and horizontal drilling, etc. I think you protest way too much. report link:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/natu ... able01.pdf
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PSTARR', 'R')eserves do not equal production. There is little evidence that tightly-held shale gas will change our limits much at all.
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PeakOil is You
Gas-to-Liquids (GTL)
Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.
by Outcast_Searcher » Wed 29 Jul 2009, 15:53:49
(Edit - fixed syntax for quote above, when I hit submit instead of review).
So let's see. The signals from the crude oil market (high prices) are vindication of the doomer energy crowd's viewpoint. (I actually happen to agree with this point, insofar as we are at or near a crude oil peak, and that the best first principle means additional oil finds will be on average much more expensive to recover).
But, when the NG market gives a HUGE and sustained signal that all the massive finds and progress via shale NG
means we can expect a LOT more (and likely relatively cheap) NG in our future -- that's just wrong. PSTARR has more insight than the combined wisdom of the global natural gas markets? ("Re: The Wisdom of Crowds")
Sorry - I just can't see selectively picking data points to fit your initial conclusions for each issue as reasonable.
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Wed 29 Jul 2009, 15:58:42, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.
by Outcast_Searcher » Wed 29 Jul 2009, 16:08:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hy is it that you responded only to my last closing comment? Don't you have anything interesting to say about the natural gas conundrum? Yes there is plenty of gas in the world, but it will not replace free-flowing liquid petroleum for reasons I just touched on. The financial collapse is instructive. Our debt-based financial system depends on growth at any cost. And that growth is predicated on growing energy supplies
Um, a bit of patience please. I posted the apology first, as making people mad is NOT my intent here, and to appear to be doing it deliberately is highly counterproductive (IMO). I had posted one point about your amazing assertion that all the shale NG formations will make little difference.
I may respond to other points, but I would like to ponder them a bit first. This isn't speed chess, after all.
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Re: Natural Gas can not replace depleting petroleum reserves.
by Outcast_Searcher » Wed 29 Jul 2009, 16:36:48
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '2')). Despite the range issues, CNG CAN provide a viable car to make roughly 100+ mile trips, which is fine for the normal daily use of a HUGE proportion of drivers. (50 KG tanks and 200 km range is cited as a reasonable compromise). As I said, folks can rent cars for long trips. Or folks could just replace one gasoline car. And as I said, it would be inconvenient.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PSTARR', '
')
"Can provide a viable car." But would anyone want or afford it?
The same is said for electric vehicles but that idea has yet to taken flight. Here in America we need 200-300 mile ranges or we would need extra cars Who has room for a 4- or 6- vehicle family fleet? You ask for a different America. I see the same one continuing.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PSTARR', '
')
"Can provide a viable car." But would anyone want or afford it?
The same is said for electric vehicles but that idea has yet to taken flight. Here in America we need 200-300 mile ranges or we would need extra cars Who has room for a 4- or 6- vehicle family fleet? You ask for a different America. I see the same one continuing.
The CNG car affordability question is valid. In "$20 per gallon", which I read recently. Steiner, the author, (who is a peak oiler who thinks we will adapt to solve the problems, though it will be expensive and difficult and change American life radically), thinks it will take at least 3 decades to build out a fleet of electric cars to solve the family transport problem - precisely because they will be so expensive for a long time -- even as gasoline soars towards $20 a gallon.
As I remind you again, like Mr. Steiner, I do ***NOT*** think the transition will be cheap or easy (i.e. convenient). However, I think that people can do arithmetic, and once gasoline gets expensive enough (i.e. averages say over 6 bucks a gallon) people will make the switch out of necessity, once it becomes available.
I don't agree your ongoing assertion (at all) that a big (and I mean very big) segment of Americans can't live with a car with a, say, 120 mile range on a tank of fuel. Will it be inconvenient? Hell yes! For everyone not making very long daily commutes (and who will be able to afford THAT when energy gets expensive?) I maintain that about 120 miles is fine.
If you don't leave the city you live in, it will be plenty 99% of the time. If you commute one way even 80 miles, it will be fine, as long as supplies are reliable.
Again, as I said, it may be inconvenient -- but there are solutions for long trips. Renting seems obvious. I do that on occasion if I'm driving an older car to save money, my car is on the fritz, etc. It takes some planning, but so what?
OR - as I said, one can own one CNG car and one conventional car. A huge proportion of American families have at least two cars, and I doubt many will be willing to give that up. You are presenting inconveniences as showstoppers, as far as the technology, IMO.
(The economic concerns overall of changing from oil are certainly valid - and I will address that in another post).
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