[Maddog78]

At this point this thread has no relevance to where I live.
Shelves are full and there are even new stores being built and opening with only a few obscure type businesses shutting down but even in boom times there were always a few like that shutting down here and there.
I guess the lower mainland of B.C. is just different than many other parts of N.A.

[Caffeine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '
')Back on topic: I have started to hear from people of all walks of life about how a) the aisles are getting bigger at large stores b) the longer time it takes for things to get in stock and c) how much less of everything is on hand. For the first time in 25 years of truck driving my dad is afraid to quit his job because, "there are just too many unemployed truck drivers out there."

[Caffeine]

Mods: Just wondering, but why is this in Open Discussion? Problems involving the trucking industry OR the grocery industry can certainly be Peak Oil-related...

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'A')t this point this thread has no relevance to where I live.
Shelves are full and there are even new stores being built and opening with only a few obscure type businesses shutting down but even in boom times there were always a few like that shutting down here and there.
I guess the lower mainland of B.C. is just different than many other parts of N.A.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Caffeine', 'M')ods: Just wondering, but why is this in Open Discussion? Problems involving the trucking industry OR the grocery industry can certainly be Peak Oil-related...

[timmac]

Deleted by Wisconsin_Cur

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3').1.8 Messages devoid of content: This includes posts with nonsense characters (ie. flksdhf). This also includes posts with a single word or only containing emoticons.

[timmac]

I just thought you might have to much time on your hands so I updated some post from a week or so ago, so you could read them, let me know if you need any more..

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'I')t is practically Impossible for JIT to break down internally. For JIT distribution to suffer a breakdown there would have to be an external catalyst. The US consumer for the most part consumes by foreign countries loaning the US money to buy their exports. Since the US does not make much anymore this includes lots of products form: oil, fertilizers, cell phones, textiles, electronics, cars, etc. At some point the exporting countries of the world may decide they will no longer loan the US consumer anymore money to buy their products. At that point all the JIT distribution that involves imported goods would grind to a halt over night. We may not see $300 bread but we might see $500 imported coffee and sugar. Those Chinese made $20 sneakers at Wal-mart will cost $600 after the breakdown.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'A')t this point this thread has no relevance to where I live.
Shelves are full and there are even new stores being built and opening with only a few obscure type businesses shutting down but even in boom times there were always a few like that shutting down here and there.
I guess the lower mainland of B.C. is just different than many other parts of N.A.

[the48thronin]

This is how the trucking companys are playing it in thier press releases of their earnings statements.
link

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '7')/17 Landstar Hit By Decrease in Loads, Fuel Surcharge Revenue

Landstar System, Jacksonville, Fla., saw declines in both net income and revenue during the second quarter, on the heels of a 16 percent loss of loads hauled, low fuel surcharge revenue and continued price pressure. However, the company believes the worst is over.

The company's second quarter net income was $17.9 million, down from $29.8 million in the same quarter of last year, a 16.6 percent decline. Revenue landed at $491.2 million from $697.7 million in the second quarter of 2008, a decrease of about 14 percent.

The company's revenue for the first half of 2009 came out to be $960 million, compared to $1.306 billion for the 2008 period. Net income for the first six months was $31.8 million, versus $53.5 million for 2008.

"In the 2009 second quarter, Landstar's revenue continued to be negatively impacted by the severe recession in the domestic and global economies," said Henry Gerkens, Landstar president and CEO. "As was the case in the 2009 first quarter, revenue declines were experienced in just about every sector, including revenue generated from the U.S. Department of Defense."

The second quarter results include $2 million in costs related to the company's recent acquisitions of Premier Logistics and A3 Intregation, supply chain transportation integration companies.

Revenue hauled by Landstar's independent contractors in the second quarter was $288.6 million, or 59 percent of revenue, compared to $375.4 million, or 54 percent of revenue, in the 2008 second quarter. In the second quarters of 2009 and 2008, the company invoiced customers $27.3 million and $90.3 million, respectively, in fuel surcharges that were passed on 100 percent to independent contractors and excluded from revenue.

Revenue hauled by third-party truck brokerage carriers was $165.2 million, or 34 percent of revenue, in the 2009 second quarter, compared to $261.7 million, or 38 percent of revenue, in the 2008 second quarter.

Meanwhile, the company's quarterly dividend did grow, with a 13 percent increase to 4.5 cents a share.

"I do not foresee a significant change in the current freight environment as we move through the third quarter," Gerkens said. "However, there has been a slight improvement in volume trends. In addition, some of the very difficult revenue comparisons experienced during the first half of 2009 begin to ease toward the end of the 2009 third quarter and into the 2009 fourth quarter. I believe the worst is over."

[the48thronin]

and the experts weigh in on the industry's health...Data is just now out for MAY!

includes link



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')efore the two-point drop, the index had shown three consecutive monthly improvements. A rating of 0 is neutral, so the current -22 places the health of the trucking industry “in solidly negative territory,” FTR said in a news release.



"The improvement in the Trucking Conditions Index, prior to June, was a function of reductions in the interest rates that truckers are paying, as well as the general expectation that freight will stop falling later this year," said Noel Perry, senior consultant and managing director of FTR Consulting Group. He said further improvement in the Index will”require that freight volumes actually stop contracting and rates begin to improve. This will not occur for some months yet and when it does, it will be a slow climb."

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'T')he best bread around here is from Fayzes in downtown La Crosse. They have a cranberry walnut that is addictive. I think a loaf there is $4.50ish... Everything is made right there.

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Caffeine', 'M')ods: Just wondering, but why is this in Open Discussion? Problems involving the trucking industry OR the grocery industry can certainly be Peak Oil-related...

[the48thronin]

I have been on the phone today with several people all of whom brought this subject up themselves NONE of whom read this discussion.

One is the GM of a major agricultural machinery outlet in the upper Midwest who was explaining to me the difficulty he is having acquiring the necessary parts load he predicts he will need for the coming harvest season.

His remarks were all about which parts were outsourced by the manufacturer and have been unavailable since last NOVEMBER when they ordered the parts load for this years harvest. His stark assessment was that in several brands of agribusiness machines, there will be critical parts not available because the manufacturer themselves cannot get the parts from their suppliers who also were running JIT based inventory.

We made several conference calls to the people we each knew investigating further and he is right.. several major suppliers who all were JIT suppliers are not going to be able to meet the needs of even the manufacturers much less the parts for repairs at major distributors.
Two parts in particular that his data base predicted a need of at least 20 which he ordered last year, the manufacturer is able to supply only 40 nationwide and they ( because of the order being placed last year) have shipped his 20 leaving the entire rest of the country to fight over the remaining 20 that will be available between now and DECEMBER.

He immediately moved the inventory of 20 into a guarded ( inventory control not armed guards) category with several other very critical parts meaning his dealership will not under any circumstance allow another dealer to buy. They are reserved for only customers who bought their machinery from the dealership. This is not a part someone can work around if they are using their combine. His statement to me was some farmers may go bankrupt for lack of a replacement part during the harvest, but not his customers if he can help it. His order for 20 was a half order, he was thinking he could order 20 more last week and was shocked when the overnight delivery was not available. Now they are saying December far too late for this years harvest, but he has in fact ordered 40 more for December just to insure supply next year.

Another phone call was from a road contractor who is desperately looking for used skid steer equipment to buy just to strip parts off of due to a shortage of parts for that particular machine which is all too common to need to be unavailable.

I mentioned signs of the failure of JIT. Both of these callers are in charge of large multi state operations, each of them said that in their view JIT was completely collapsed as it pertained to their industrial/agribusiness machinery and parts.

Each of them was also discussing the need for reliable shipping of parts if they could be located at a distance stripped off of used equiptment and then transported just as parts leaving the remaining equiptment for scrapping or what ever. They were intending to buy equiptment at auction, send a crew to strip off the needed parts and have them available in case of desperate need.

HMMM that colossus seems to be tipping further with each swing....

[Caffeine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'H')is stark assessment was that in several brands of agribusiness machines, there will be critical parts not available because the manufacturer themselves cannot get the parts from their suppliers who also were running JIT based inventory.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Caffeine', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'H')is stark assessment was that in several brands of agribusiness machines, there will be critical parts not available because the manufacturer themselves cannot get the parts from their suppliers who also were running JIT based inventory.

[wisconsin_cur]

If one distributer uses ~20 of a part a year (it would be helpful to know what part) what percentage of combines will need the part. For sake of a thought experiment lets say this is 5%. So 5 of every 100 combines would be out during part of the harvest.

Depending on field conditions this could or could not be a big deal. Especially in a time of crisis farmers are willing to help one another. If a normal harvst would be (mostly) done (in a given area) over the course of 3 weeks an increase of 5% of time (assuming 16 hour days, 6 day weeks) is one day's work. In practice it would be a bit more than that (the farmer would not have 20 combines coming to his field at once) but given an average year in regards to ability to get into the field it would not be a unsurmountable problem.

It could serve as a kind of wake up call of how fragil JIT is and lead to more "hoarding" and in this respect it might be a good thing.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'I')f one distributer uses ~20 of a part a year (it would be helpful to know what part) what percentage of combines will need the part. For sake of a thought experiment lets say this is 5%. So 5 of every 100 combines would be out during part of the harvest.

Depending on field conditions this could or could not be a big deal. Especially in a time of crisis farmers are willing to help one another. If a normal harvst would be (mostly) done (in a given area) over the course of 3 weeks an increase of 5% of time (assuming 16 hour days, 6 day weeks) is one day's work. In practice it would be a bit more than that (the farmer would not have 20 combines coming to his field at once) but given an average year in regards to ability to get into the field it would not be a unsurmountable problem.

It could serve as a kind of wake up call of how fragil JIT is and lead to more "hoarding" and in this respect it might be a good thing.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'I') faked all the pictures too right?

[JJ]

This whole thread is but a doomer fantasy.

and the american way of life is non-negotiable.