[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'T')his whole thread is but a doomer fantasy.

and the american way of life is non-negotiable.

[dbruning]

"and the american way of life is non-negotiable."

Look Mr. Cheney, I can easily say my having a solid gold car that runs on dreams and rainbows is non-negotiable....doesn't mean I am going to get it.

Your "American Way of Life" depends on several factors...all of which need to run smoothly in order for you to continue BAU, when they start to fail, I suspect you will find strongly stating that this is not negotiable will do very little for you.

As a exercise in planning, why not consider that something might not go as planned, perhaps a earthquake or whatever, and maybe do a little work to make sure you can survive a serious short term problem. If you truly feel there is nothing further that needs to be done - you are completely entitled to your opinion, hell, I even hope you are right.

To those of us that disagree that things are running smoothly and will continue to do so however, your statement regarding things being non-negotiable comes across as misguided (to be polite).

[Maddog78]

Seems like it's not all bad news for trucking companies.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29763093/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ownturn puts trucking firms in driver’s seat
Rising jobless rate helps fill chronic shortage of long-haul drivers

Two months ago, Todd Smith of Metropolis, Ill., had never been in the cab of a semi rig. Now it is his office and his home away from home.

Smith got laid off for the winter from his job as a concrete worker, leaving his family to survive the season on just one income. Adding that to the rigors of pouring concrete as he ages, Smith went back to school. Last month, he graduated from the truck driver training program at Shawnee Community College in Ullin.

“I’ve been out of school now for 20-some-odd years and never dreamed I’d come back to school for this or anything else, for that matter,” Smith said.

For Smith and thousands of other Americans, 18 wheels is the new look of a weekly paycheck. With companies slashing jobs across the country, trucking companies aren’t exactly booming, but they are holding their own, and many say they are looking to grow.

“The economy is bad, but it’s not as bad as some of the news organizations would have you believe,” said Lance Hillman, president and chief executive of Fort Edward Express Co. Inc. of Fort Edward, N.Y., which hauls petroleum and cement over much of the Northeast.

Fort Edward needs workers, Hillman said: “We could put people to work tomorrow if they’re qualified.”

Bad economy boosts trucking
If it seems counterintuitive that long-haul trucking would remain relatively healthy during a deep recession, there’s a wild card: timing.

Because about 80 percent of U.S. industry relies on trucks to move its most basic building blocks from Point A to Point B, the nation’s estimated 1.8 million long-haul truck drivers are especially sensitive to the state of the economy. In fact, they’re usually at the leading edge of economic booms and busts.

snip........................

[hardtootell-2]

Another example of energy insecurity or as I like to think of it non-available energy

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/calgary/story/ ... inery.html

Its hard for the suburban poodles to keep consuming if they can't get to the malls!

Take note everyone- there is no government response at the local, regional or national level. No stockpiles of fuel, no emergency response, not even soothing words to the public. What makes anyone think if this was more protracted and widespread that the government response would be any more effective?

You are on your own!

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'S')eems like it's not all bad news for trucking companies.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29763093/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ownturn puts trucking firms in driver’s seat
Rising jobless rate helps fill chronic shortage of long-haul drivers

Two months ago, Todd Smith of Metropolis, Ill., had never been in the cab of a semi rig. Now it is his office and his home away from home.

Smith got laid off for the winter from his job as a concrete worker, leaving his family to survive the season on just one income. Adding that to the rigors of pouring concrete as he ages, Smith went back to school. Last month, he graduated from the truck driver training program at Shawnee Community College in Ullin.

“I’ve been out of school now for 20-some-odd years and never dreamed I’d come back to school for this or anything else, for that matter,” Smith said.

For Smith and thousands of other Americans, 18 wheels is the new look of a weekly paycheck. With companies slashing jobs across the country, trucking companies aren’t exactly booming, but they are holding their own, and many say they are looking to grow.

“The economy is bad, but it’s not as bad as some of the news organizations would have you believe,” said Lance Hillman, president and chief executive of Fort Edward Express Co. Inc. of Fort Edward, N.Y., which hauls petroleum and cement over much of the Northeast.

Fort Edward needs workers, Hillman said: “We could put people to work tomorrow if they’re qualified.”

Bad economy boosts trucking
If it seems counterintuitive that long-haul trucking would remain relatively healthy during a deep recession, there’s a wild card: timing.

Because about 80 percent of U.S. industry relies on trucks to move its most basic building blocks from Point A to Point B, the nation’s estimated 1.8 million long-haul truck drivers are especially sensitive to the state of the economy. In fact, they’re usually at the leading edge of economic booms and busts.

snip........................

[IslandCrow]

The BBC started a project to track a container as it travelled around the world. The latest write-up has the title: BBC box stranded by shipping's decline

Link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8172846.stm

There are some interesting parts of the write up that I think relates to this thread as it monitors the problems the JIT distribution system is facing (and the collapse of trade):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he whole container shipping business has been hit hard by the economic downturn.

The slump has occurred just as a large number of new vessels are coming into service.

The over-capacity has caused big falls in freight rates and growing financial problems for the industry.
...
Hapag-Lloyd - the world's fifth largest container shipping company - is seeking new funding.

Industry insiders report that other major shipping lines are under intense financial pressure.

"The container business made a collective profit of $5 billion (£3bn) in 2008. It is likely to make a loss of up to $20 billion this year," according to Richard Meade, news editor of the industry bible Lloyd's List.

After 53 years of annual growth, the volume of cargo carried by container ships may record a fall in 2009.

The May figures for westbound Asia-Europe services were down by a fifth on the previous year - an indication of the severity of the slump.

The problems for the industry have been compounded by a boom in building large new container ships.

And while older ships are being taken out of service it is estimated that the total available capacity will rise by 10% next year.

While many forecasters believe that world trade should start to pick up next year it will almost certainly not grow by enough to use up the spare shipping capacity, so vessels and containers will be less intensively used than in recent years.

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ight at the beginning of the
"the recovery is coming in the third quarter" chorus .....

two weeks later several of the biggest trucking companies stopped hiring any school graduates and closed thier contract truck driving schools.

[the48thronin]

[quote=http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService4/idUSTRE56U3KV20090731] And the beat goes on........[/quote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'V')olumes have rebounded as manufacturing activity stabilizes, and the worst of the credit squeeze and de-stocking that hit the global supply chain around the turn of the year have eased.

Trade data are consistent with other indications the worst of recession is over.

How quickly trade volumes increase depends on the pace of recovery. Volumes have grown roughly twice as fast as global GDP since the end of the World War Two.

Even a moderate in activity should produce a noticeable increase in world trade volumes.

Whether the gains in trade and activity are sustained depends on whether the initial refilling of the supply chain and resumption of replacement investment provides enough confidence and income to stimulate second-round increases in consumer and business expenditure. If it does, it will pave the way for a sustained expansion; if not, the economy will sink back into a double-dip recession.

[the48thronin]

I visited a wal-mart in weatherford texas today.

The store was well stocked and only the barest signs of dressing of shelves.

12 containers for additional storage, cutting the number of individual items in half, and being close to a major trade route have all come together to make this walmart look well stocked and ready for increased business.

it will take increased business or higher prices to make th old constant increased income model work for the annual reports.

I wish them luck. Prices seemed to be going back down on many of the made in USA foods that I buy. I don't buy imported food if I can avoid it so I have no comparison data.

I did walk the whole store and those items I do recognise as American made are much among the missing. Of course when you cut 1/2 of all the items you stock many items will be among the missing. sigh.

Now the summer will soon be over. It will be interesting to see if sales increase... and if they do will the newer system that has double the warehousing at the DC and added storage at the stores be enough to keep the shelves stocked.

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dbruning', '&')quot;and the american way of life is non-negotiable."
Look Mr. Cheney, I can easily say my having a solid gold car that runs on dreams and rainbows is non-negotiable....doesn't mean I am going to get it. (...)

[wisconsin_cur]

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5633

The oil drum takes up the issue of complexity, supply chains and collapse

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is a presentation by Dr. David Korowicz from Feasta, given at the Oil Drum/ASPO Conference at Alcatraz, Italy in June 2009. It can be downloaded here: Things fall apart: Some thoughts on complexity, supply chains, infrastructure & collapse dynamics, PDF 23 slides, 1.3 MB, text of spoken presentation.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '[')url]http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5633[/url]

The oil drum takes up the issue of complexity, supply chains and collapse

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is a presentation by Dr. David Korowicz from Feasta, given at the Oil Drum/ASPO Conference at Alcatraz, Italy in June 2009. It can be downloaded here: Things fall apart: Some thoughts on complexity, supply chains, infrastructure & collapse dynamics, PDF 23 slides, 1.3 MB, text of spoken presentation.

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')anufacturers are abandoning global supply chains for regional ones in a big shift brought about by the financial crisis and climate change concerns, according to executives and analysts.

Companies are increasingly looking closer to home for their components, meaning that for their US or European operations they are more likely to use Mexico and eastern Europe than China, as previously.

A future where energy is more expensive and less plentifully available will lead to more regional supply chains,” Gerard Kleisterlee, chief executive of Philips, one of Europe’s biggest companies, told the Financial Times.

[the48thronin]

Anyone remember how this thread started? Do you wonder if by cutting number of different items stocked, and adding "temporary" storage behind the store wallyworld is able to do better at keeping the shelves full?

today I took 17 photos and put them in a slide show, if it doesn't scroll try clicking on the picture.

[vision-master]

Just some restocking needed after the weekend crowds?

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'J')ust some restocking needed after the weekend crowds?

[the48thronin]

because I can bet my keep you fed comment will be seized upon to misstate the reasoning this thread exists, I will restate it.

The system of JIT distribution that permeates retail chains is breaking down. Signs of that breakdown will appear and can be recognized as failures of that system.

The signs include missing items, as items are sold out but cannot be replaced from stock at the DC because it is also out of that item.

Some local supplied items such as soft drinks, beer, bread, pastries and some meats will only give you signs if the local supplier is also unable to restock on their scheduled daily visits.

Looking for shelf dressing where the employees pull a few remaining items to the front edge of a shelf to hide the space empty behind them will give you warning also.


As J I T systems break down, transport and suppliers will be held more and more to emergency schedules to fill the voids, or the retailer has only two choices, remove tags to hide missing items and spread remaining products to hide space, or leave the shelves disheveled hoping shoppers will assume they are following a rush of patrons, but every square foot of store costs money to own, and empty shelves lead to red ink in bottom lines and employee layoffs or store closing of they continue.

This thread was created to discuss signs of the breakdown of J I T distribution both retail ( the easiest to spot) and wholesale so that readers can plan accordingly when they recognize the situation developing.

[Caffeine]

Seems a little weird that toilet paper, of all things, should be so scarce on the shelves in that slideshow. It's not perishable, like meat, nor does it become out of date like magazines.

What's the product in slide 8, where the shelves are pretty thin? Wheat stuff, sugar stuff?

[TheAntiDoomer]

Just got back from a shopping trip in NOVA. Stocks of food, essentials, everything was a aplenty.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'A')nyone remember how this thread started? Do you wonder if by cutting number of different items stocked, and adding "temporary" storage behind the store wallyworld is able to do better at keeping the shelves full? oh and at almost the same time my daughter called me distraught from home and then sent me the following three shots from wally world there.. 8 miles from the DC to the store..... two trucks today 10 am and 3 pm all stocks already put out! excuses won't keep you fed!