I went into a large chain drugstore a few days ago, looking for a hair trimming kit. I was told to go to aisle 1. Aisle 1 had plenty of places for hair trimming kits, with prices on the shelves from low to high, but no hair trimmers. Many other shelves were lightly laden.
This seems to say two things to me- more people are cutting their own hair to save money, and that major stores don't seem to be able to keep their shelves stocked. I see the signs of this everywhere I shop.
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Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.
Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.
by Hawkcreek » Fri 22 May 2009, 10:15:41
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.
by Gerben » Fri 22 May 2009, 10:54:31
What I think is causing empty shelves in some stores is that:
1. turnover goes down (and/or credit becomes less available)
2. store decides to reduce stock
As they try to reduce their stock, there is a period where they cannot restock, but try to sell their excess stock till they reached the desired level. In the mean time their sales could be going down even further, because they ran out of stock on some items. Things will sort themselves out. Or they go bankrupt.
1. turnover goes down (and/or credit becomes less available)
2. store decides to reduce stock
As they try to reduce their stock, there is a period where they cannot restock, but try to sell their excess stock till they reached the desired level. In the mean time their sales could be going down even further, because they ran out of stock on some items. Things will sort themselves out. Or they go bankrupt.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.
by Byron100 » Fri 22 May 2009, 11:12:04
Reporting from Atlanta here:
I went to the local Wal-Mart for the first time since before Christmas to get some shoes, an SD memory card and a T-Mobile minutes card, and while I was in the store, I had a good look around to see how the stocking situation looked. For the most part, the grocery section was fully stocked, shelves nice and full, with most goods taking up the width of the shelving, etc. One glaring exception was the fresh seafood counter - there was almost NO seafood on ice - just a couple packs of crab legs was all, at the very end. Didn't bother to ask the very bored-looking attendant behind the counter if he was expecting any fresh seafood anytime soon...LOL.
I then went to look for phone cards - for T-Mobile (which they sell phones for), they only had $10 cards - $25, $50 and $100's were all out. Why they can't keep those in stock is beyond me. Sure had plenty of AT&T cards, though. I then went over to look for flash cards - very few of those available - none in 1 or 2 gig, some in 4 or 8 gig, but the "HC" version which I wasn't sure if it'd work with my digital camera. The rest of the electronics section seemed a bit sparse as well - fewer TVs for sale, etc.
So it was 0 for 2 so far for my shopping list. Went to look for shoes - plenty of those, although not many in half sizes. Picked up a decent pair of walkers for $20...can't beat that, huh? Wal-mart sneaks usually last me about 4-5 months, so that's pretty affordable - at least while the shoes are still on the shelf...lol.
Walked around the household goods section of the store, and that's where I saw some rather conspicuous gaps on the shelves - particularly in the school / office supplies section. I saw papers attached to some of these shelves with diagrams of how to stock goods, stuff like "left justifying", etc. Seemed to be a clear case of making fewer goods fill up too much space.
Check out time - that big space in front of the registers reminded me of an airport runway - a very wide and very long stretch of just emptiness. Another glaring example of too much store for the quantity of merchandise. And of course, there were very, very few customers throughout the entire store. A church would have quieter...LOL. No wait to check out of course....that would have been unheard of just a couple years ago.
Wish I had pics to share, but I think you get the idea. Cracks in the system, and those cracks are getting wider all the time, IMO.
I went to the local Wal-Mart for the first time since before Christmas to get some shoes, an SD memory card and a T-Mobile minutes card, and while I was in the store, I had a good look around to see how the stocking situation looked. For the most part, the grocery section was fully stocked, shelves nice and full, with most goods taking up the width of the shelving, etc. One glaring exception was the fresh seafood counter - there was almost NO seafood on ice - just a couple packs of crab legs was all, at the very end. Didn't bother to ask the very bored-looking attendant behind the counter if he was expecting any fresh seafood anytime soon...LOL.
I then went to look for phone cards - for T-Mobile (which they sell phones for), they only had $10 cards - $25, $50 and $100's were all out. Why they can't keep those in stock is beyond me. Sure had plenty of AT&T cards, though. I then went over to look for flash cards - very few of those available - none in 1 or 2 gig, some in 4 or 8 gig, but the "HC" version which I wasn't sure if it'd work with my digital camera. The rest of the electronics section seemed a bit sparse as well - fewer TVs for sale, etc.
So it was 0 for 2 so far for my shopping list. Went to look for shoes - plenty of those, although not many in half sizes. Picked up a decent pair of walkers for $20...can't beat that, huh? Wal-mart sneaks usually last me about 4-5 months, so that's pretty affordable - at least while the shoes are still on the shelf...lol.
Walked around the household goods section of the store, and that's where I saw some rather conspicuous gaps on the shelves - particularly in the school / office supplies section. I saw papers attached to some of these shelves with diagrams of how to stock goods, stuff like "left justifying", etc. Seemed to be a clear case of making fewer goods fill up too much space.
Check out time - that big space in front of the registers reminded me of an airport runway - a very wide and very long stretch of just emptiness. Another glaring example of too much store for the quantity of merchandise. And of course, there were very, very few customers throughout the entire store. A church would have quieter...LOL. No wait to check out of course....that would have been unheard of just a couple years ago.
Wish I had pics to share, but I think you get the idea. Cracks in the system, and those cracks are getting wider all the time, IMO.
Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.
by the48thronin » Sat 23 May 2009, 01:41:48
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', 'I') don't think JIT distribution is really being threatened. I work for a wholesale company and we are also seeing more empty shelves. When the turnover drops, you must reduce your stocks or profits go down. For many companies insufficient credit is another reason to reduce stocks.
As soon as demand increases we will also increase our stocks again. Right now customers have an increased chance of not getting what they need right away. This does not apply to our JIT customers: we will keep enough supply to meet their forecasts.
Forecasts are improving by the way.
As soon as demand increases we will also increase our stocks again. Right now customers have an increased chance of not getting what they need right away. This does not apply to our JIT customers: we will keep enough supply to meet their forecasts.
Forecasts are improving by the way.
You are making my point for me.( hint don't hold your breath waiting for as soon as demand increases). Just in Time distribution on the retail model as perfected by Wallyworld is dead. Your own experience tells you why and how.
The supplier of sea food who is actually a slave labor "rent a factory ( or in this case fish farm)" is in China or Viet Nam, they cannot deliver JUST IN TIME to d c centers scattered all over the world unless they can schedule the entire operation from digging the pond to feeding the seafood to harvesting the seafood to packaging the seafood, to shipping the seafood around the world.
J I T was a system developed in occupied Japan to allow low inventory. When sales drop, you close off the production of your supplier until you need more product. That works for a plastics molder who has a 10 man shop just outside the fence of your plant as the TOYOTA model is still proving in this depression. It does not work in a globalist created world wide transportation needing system of exploiting slave labor to lower production costs. JIT as practiced by retailers all over the world is broken. The only questions are can they make enough SLACK in the existing infrastructure to continue some SEMBLANCE of what made them profitable in the past. Can their slave labor food farmers continue in existence with a stuttering customer who does not have a secure demand?
The answers will be interesting, the local suppliers the slave labor system drove out of business are not available to step back in to the market and make local creation available again in numbers big enough to support the mega chains on and off again demands of todays reduced spending.
May we live in interesting times. LOL
Edited one time for spelling and typos
Last edited by the48thronin on Sat 23 May 2009, 02:05:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.
by the48thronin » Sat 23 May 2009, 01:55:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', 'W')hat I think is causing empty shelves in some stores is that:
1. turnover goes down (and/or credit becomes less available)
2. store decides to reduce stock
As they try to reduce their stock, there is a period where they cannot restock, but try to sell their excess stock till they reached the desired level. In the mean time their sales could be going down even further, because they ran out of stock on some items. Things will sort themselves out. Or they go bankrupt.
1. turnover goes down (and/or credit becomes less available)
2. store decides to reduce stock
As they try to reduce their stock, there is a period where they cannot restock, but try to sell their excess stock till they reached the desired level. In the mean time their sales could be going down even further, because they ran out of stock on some items. Things will sort themselves out. Or they go bankrupt.
One of the reasons I chose wal-mart to do the pictorial reporting on is that in same store sales they have NOT had noticeable lower turn over or loss in sales by dollar value either. In fact they have had sales gains.
They have while I have been researching the article I am about to begin publishing made significant changes in their stockage, reducing the number of items available in their system by dropping some suppliers products. At this time they are almost complete in their chain wide restructuring of store shelfs to reduce by 1/3 while reducing selection by 1/2. Doing this allowed them to go to a palletized display from selected suppliers who furnish sales displays complete on a pallet reducing stock clerk hours to just pulling in the pallet and removing the outer cover. This also increased the shelf space available to local delivered supplies and made space to allow for longer delivery intervals.
They work very closely with their suppliers and in the new world of reduced production and shipping still cannot meet their goals of "always available" every item every day. JIT as practiced in globalist retail is broken I assure you. PS the entire 7 Netherlands is less then 1/2 the size of the average SMALL d c area of responsibility.
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Courtesy and Courage Sincerity and Self-control Honor and Loyalty a Code to Live By!
What do the miners do when the canary dies? EVACUATE THE MINE not argue about the color of it's feathers or buy a parrot instead.
Where is my pitchfork and torch? I need them for a visit to the castle!
Courtesy and Courage Sincerity and Self-control Honor and Loyalty a Code to Live By!
What do the miners do when the canary dies? EVACUATE THE MINE not argue about the color of it's feathers or buy a parrot instead.
Where is my pitchfork and torch? I need them for a visit to the castle!
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.
by IslandCrow » Sat 23 May 2009, 06:00:22
Thats for this thread.
Our village shop (which is part of a national chain of stores) is at the end of the line, with items like bread and meat only delivered every other day, So here JIT means every second day (not quite your definition)! This results in making it harded to judge the meat volumes needed, and most days we can pick up meat at a discount as it reaches its 'sell by date' that evening.
Occasional items are out, such as cotton pads, but they have come back into stock quickly.
Today, fresh milk was out as the dairy delivery company had failed to make the run (according to the sign over the milk location). Because we are near the end of the line, the milks, yougurts etc are in a cold room, with shelves and doors on the customer side - this allows one to see the stock that has not been put on the shelves yet -- again not quite the JIT system you are referring to, maybe this area is too small for a proper JIT to have been implimented. Alternatives, such as low lactose milk and long life milk were available, so missing one deliver was not too painful (except in profit for the shopkeeper).
If there hadn't been problem with the milk delivery, I would have said that we have not been witnessing the problems you are mostly writing about. But as in the saying "One swallow does not a summer make" I will wait and see if we are have other delivery problems, before concluding the JIT is breaking down here.
Our village shop (which is part of a national chain of stores) is at the end of the line, with items like bread and meat only delivered every other day, So here JIT means every second day (not quite your definition)! This results in making it harded to judge the meat volumes needed, and most days we can pick up meat at a discount as it reaches its 'sell by date' that evening.
Occasional items are out, such as cotton pads, but they have come back into stock quickly.
Today, fresh milk was out as the dairy delivery company had failed to make the run (according to the sign over the milk location). Because we are near the end of the line, the milks, yougurts etc are in a cold room, with shelves and doors on the customer side - this allows one to see the stock that has not been put on the shelves yet -- again not quite the JIT system you are referring to, maybe this area is too small for a proper JIT to have been implimented. Alternatives, such as low lactose milk and long life milk were available, so missing one deliver was not too painful (except in profit for the shopkeeper).
If there hadn't been problem with the milk delivery, I would have said that we have not been witnessing the problems you are mostly writing about. But as in the saying "One swallow does not a summer make" I will wait and see if we are have other delivery problems, before concluding the JIT is breaking down here.
We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.
by Roy » Sat 23 May 2009, 10:41:41
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen sales drop, you close off the production of your supplier until you need more product.
That works great for the producer, but when the supplier gets that message, they have to either lay people off of close down completely.
The problem is that when/if sales increase, the former supplier may no longer exist, which further contributes to the breakdown.
I work for a 'supplier' and several of our clients, facing dropping sales, have told us "sorry we only need half of our regular order next month". There goes 30% of our gross sales, and we were already working on a very thin margin, barely achieved through heroic efforts after last year's cuts.
That put my company on a "either we cut costs and start laying off more people (30% laid off last summer) or we are out of business -- ~180 jobs including mine).
I appreciate the work you're doing here 48thronin, as well as the contributions of other posters.
I will add that the posted pictures here could have been taken at my local WMSC. Just for laughs, go try to buy some .22 long rifle ammunition, and take a look at the ammo counter if your WM has one.
All mine had was some shotgun ammo, mostly 16 and 20 gauge. All handgun calibers sold out, and nearly every rifle caliber as well.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.
by Hawkcreek » Sun 24 May 2009, 11:19:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') will add that the posted pictures here could have been taken at my local WMSC. Just for laughs, go try to buy some .22 long rifle ammunition, and take a look at the ammo counter if your WM has one. All mine had was some shotgun ammo, mostly 16 and 20 gauge. All handgun calibers sold out, and nearly every rifle caliber as well.
This is one thing that is starting to freak me out. I am in my sixties, and I have never seen anything like this before. Just try to buy ammo in the Pacific Northwest now. It is impossible to find. I don't think this has anything to do with the JIT system, but the fact of ammo demand completely outstripping supply indicates that many people are extremely worried about the future.
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I think all the rich ppl are stocking up on ammo as this hunting store carries high end stuff. 
