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Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 09:55:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'y')ep. panic early.

No, I'm not in panic mode at all. I just enjoy shooting and believe every red-neck American should be well armed. That's all. :)
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 16:17:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')'ll be waiting. :)

This thread is now over 4 months old. I just got back from the supermarket and all was normal. All other recent trips to all other retail establishments have been similarly normal. Another doomer prediction gone bust.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 16:38:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')'ll be waiting. :)
This thread is now over 4 months old. I just got back from the supermarket and all was normal. All other recent trips to all other retail establishments have been similarly normal. Another doomer prediction gone bust.

I even found those Mesquite Guacomole Doritos that Kunstler despises so much :lol: [smilie=icon_salut.gif] [smilie=qgreenjumpers.gif]
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby JJ » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 16:51:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'N')o, I'm not in panic mode at all. I just enjoy shooting and believe every red-neck American should be well armed. That's all. :)

no, no, it was meant to be a joke...get your preps early before the rush... didn't mean to be misconstrued...:(
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby JJ » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 16:52:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')his thread is now over 4 months old. I just got back from the supermarket and all was normal. All other recent trips to all other retail establishments have been similarly normal. Another doomer prediction gone bust.

aren't you a little premature?
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby ki11ercane » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 18:15:45

It's not prematurity on OF2's part. It's just the opposite side of the spectrum and while you don't agree with it, you have to respect it. Not respecting someone's opinion is a sign of weakness and also nearsightedness. It's the classic Doomer vs. Non-Doomer debate manifesting into something else. OF2 is armed with facts. Doomers are armed with facts as well as an emotional drive to survive. The only thing linking the doomer and non-doomer to the future is neither of them know what it will entail, and both are preparing differently. (ie. the Doomer is prepping and positioning themselves for what "might happen" and the non-doomer is planning on doing nothing because they cling to facts based on a false belief the world is built on absolutes) The defining moment of a non-doomer becoming a doomer (or prepper) is when they realize their facts will not mitigate the future to their favor, and in life there is not one single absolute in life. A doomer/prepper realizes this (ie. swallowed the red pill) and is preparing accordingly.

Here in Winterpeg with Canada being pretty much isolated from what is happening in the U.S. and abroad with our banks and mortgages, all I am seeing is a switch on how much of the same thing bigger companies are bringing in, (instead of 50 toothbrushes of different kinds you're only seeing ten) and a switch to ready made shelving. (the pallet displays discussed earlier) The China sh!t is still streaming into the stores and the malls are filled with people. I have seen a massive increase in "for lease" stores on the individual level, and giant strip malls built with zero renters.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 18:35:40

You want signs, I see lots of signs that are not in the news. Stocks of basic items missing in big box home builder stores, truck traffic visably down, more empty buildings that I've ever seen, vacated mall space in malls that were always 99% occupied before, even the parking lot in my office looking very much empty lately (possibly more people taking longer summer vacations).

I though this thread was about signs and not whether you are a doomer or not. Certainly there are also signs of posssible economic recovery in another thread, even if that doesn't translate into economic recovery.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby timmac » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 18:46:49

I myself got pretty beat up at the beginning of this forum when I said I saw no shortages here in Vegas or Cali where I often travel to, was even called Baghdad Bob because I did not believe there was going to be any shortages, as bad as it looks out there, there is still a large economy clicking away.

I guess I wont be drinking any cactus tea this summer.. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby JJ » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 18:47:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ki11ercane', 'I')t's not prematurity on OF2's part. It's just the opposite side of the spectrum and while you don't agree with it, you have to respect it. Not respecting someone's opinion is a sign of weakness and also nearsightedness. It's the classic Doomer vs. Non-Doomer debate manifesting into something else. OF2 is armed with facts. Doomers are armed with facts as well as an emotional drive to survive. The only thing linking the doomer and non-doomer to the future is neither of them know what it will entail, and both are preparing differently. (ie. the Doomer is prepping and positioning themselves for what "might happen" and the non-doomer is planning on doing nothing because they cling to facts based on a false belief the world is built on absolutes).

huh? asking OF if he isn't a little premature is a sign of disrespect? whatever.
I work in a grocery store, and the public certainly acts as if they think everything is OK (if you can get past the constant bitching about how prices have DOUBLED since last year) but our store is down 100,000. YOY for this period, and we are in a small town of 5,000. So yes, I would be hard put to say that everything is still "normal".
more cuts in hours; last year the store halved the entitlement package for people with two years or less employment (one week paid vacation instead of two, insurance premiums doubled, etc., so they can't go there again (yet), but I see many, many more cuts coming.)
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby JJ » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 18:58:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'I') myself got pretty beat up at the beginning of this forum when I said I saw no shortages here in Vegas or Cali where I often travel to, was even called Baghdad Bob because I did not believe there was going to be any shortages, as bad as it looks out there, there is still a large economy clicking away.

Timmac, I'm the one who called you Baghdad Bob. You've been exonerated, though. (probably should have put that comment in the HOF). link
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 19:00:52

I'm C'ing more and more stores of all kinds folding. To the average unaware person, everything seems perfectly normal. It's NOT! I guess if you are looking through rose colored lens, you will only C what you want. :lol:
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby timmac » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 19:22:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'I') of all people do not want any kind of crash. I still have small children at home; I don't own my home. However, to me you sound strikingly like Bagdad Bob or the talking head thats on CNN every morning talking about how the recession is over as another 600,000 jobs go away.
do you think I'm "proud" or "arrogant" because I am concerned that even my 13 year old can see that something is seriously, seriously wrong?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris..

Well folks the JIT system has not fallen apart as the OP stated that would happen this summer, no cookies made from dirt and no cactus tea either, your shelves are full and more trucks are coming. A message from Baghdad Bob. :razz:
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby timmac » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 19:27:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'T')immac, I'm the one who called you Baghdad Bob. You've been exonerated, though. (probably should have put that comment in the HOF).
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2009/0 ... index.html

Its OK, name calling keeps this site interesting, any ways I called you Hubris once I think...
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 19:34:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'W')ell folks the JIT system has not fallen apart as the OP stated that would happen this summer, no cookies made from dirt and no cactus tea either, your shelves are full and more trucks are coming. A message from Baghdad Bob. :razz:

Sorry, just talked to a fleet trucking manager that's been in the business for 40 years. He said things are looking real bad. Everytime I see him, he tells me it's getting worse'r.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 19:37:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'W')ell folks the JIT system has not fallen apart as the OP stated that would happen this summer, no cookies made from dirt and no cactus tea either, your shelves are full and more trucks are coming. A message from Baghdad Bob. :razz:

Checks calender... Summer lasts until September 22nd :P Lets give the OP his time shall we? The only thing worse than eating humble pie is eating it served back to us.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby timmac » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 19:50:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'I')'m C'ing more and more stores of all kinds folding. To the average unaware person, everything seems perfectly normal. It's NOT! I guess if you are looking through rose colored lens, you will only C what you want.

I don't think they mean all is normal, sure stores that where having trouble competing when things where moving at break neck speed and consumers were maxing out there credit cards to buy every thing in site are now the 1st to go when it slows down, the big box stores will always be here, its the smaller ma/pop stores that will suffer during these slow times, Von's grocery stores here in Vegas are closing down because they can no longer compete with other grocery stores here, however Fresh and Easy market stores are popping up every where here, go figure? As long as money is being spent there will be someone to deliver that product.

I think we are in a more normal economy where every one is buying more for there needs and less of the wants and high priced homes and such, our unemployment just might stay above 10 % for a long time unless we go back to over consumption again, it might even hit 15 % and stay there, who knows? I don't see things going back to what they were, but I don't see it colapasing either..
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby timmac » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 20:13:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'S')orry, just talked to a fleet trucking manager that's been in the business for 40 years. He said things are looking real bad. Everytime I see him, he tells me it's getting worse'r.

And for every trucking company that goes under another one picks up there business and they get better, trucking companies were doing just fine 30-40 years ago when there was less products being deleverd than now, so why should they all go away today ?

My business has pickup more this summer and now I am forced to bid new contracts higher in price as not to over load myself and hire more employees, I think one of my competeters quite and left town and now my phone is ringing off the wall. he is probably crying in his beer somewhere telling someone how bad it is but I on the other hand have to much work and don't have much free time anymore, [ except to type on this fourm ], its getting hard to get out of town and enjoy some time off.

Same goes for my wife's brother who owns a partnership business as a commercial plumber/pipe fitter, his is picking up as others close down and leave town, they have scored enough contracts to last well into 2010, and that's from Vegas where construction has nearly stopped. You need to look at the whole picture not just from someone that is about to go under...
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 20:17:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'Y')ou want signs, I see lots of signs that are not in the news. Stocks of basic items missing in big box home builder stores, truck traffic visably down, more empty buildings that I've ever seen, vacated mall space in malls that were always 99% occupied before, even the parking lot in my office looking very much empty lately (possibly more people taking longer summer vacations).

I though this thread was about signs and not whether you are a doomer or not. Certainly there are also signs of posssible economic recovery in another thread, even if that doesn't translate into economic recovery.

The fact that truck traffic is down does not mean the JIT distribution system is on the verge of breakdown, it simply means people are buying less stuff, and therefore there is less stuff for trucks to deliver. This has happened in prior recessions, and it's no surprise it's happened again in this one.

Same with vacated mall stores and empty buildings. This kind of thing happens in just about every economic slowdown.

I haven't noticed any empty shelves in big-box stores. If there are some empty shelves at Home Depot (haven't been there in a while myself), it's probably because housing starts are way down and there is less need to keep shelves filled.

Face it: This whole thread is yet another failed doomer prediction.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 20:23:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'h')uh? asking OF if he isn't a little premature is a sign of disrespect? whatever.
I work in a grocery store, and the public certainly acts as if they think everything is OK (if you can get past the constant bitching about how prices have DOUBLED since last year) but our store is down 100,000. YOY for this period, and we are in a small town of 5,000. So yes, I would be hard put to say that everything is still "normal".
more cuts in hours; last year the store halved the entitlement package for people with two years or less employment (one week paid vacation instead of two, insurance premiums doubled, etc., so they can't go there again (yet), but I see many, many more cuts coming.)

I don't doubt that sales at your supermarket are down - in fact I recently had a guy who works in a supermarket in a ritzy suburb tell me sales at his supermarket were down.

But as I just said to Dante above, this does not mean the JIT distribution is about to collapse. It means little more than we've been in an economic slowdown and people are buying less stuff.

Now, as for Dante's observation, there is a Home Depot just down the road from me. Haven't been there in a while, but I'll go there now and come back with a report. :)
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby JJ » Tue 14 Jul 2009, 20:25:40

I think some people ARE going to do quite well. But with perhaps one out of five unemployed, they also may soon become targets. It seems that as things continue to contract, these jobs won't be coming back. Granted, we don't need five thousand Build-a-Bear outlets, but what ARE those employees going to do now? Make electric cars? Where are they going to get the money to buy the cars they are making?

They keep talking about how they are going to raise taxes to pay for all of this, but so far no one I know (except the janitor where I work) has been shaken down.
The IRS is after him to pay back 3000 dollars from six years ago. So each month he sends them 100 dollars with a 150 dollar processing fee. He's voted the most likely to go postal by the other employees where I work. He really, really hates the gubmint and as far as I can see has nothing left to lose....
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