[Schmuto]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'D')amnit OPEC is pulling a fast one on me.
Looks like I might lose this bet now.[...]

[copious.abundance]

Sorry, I've already got another bet going somewhere else here. I only do one bet at a time.

Maddog's bet should do the trick.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'A')HA! Here's the thread Maddog was talking about.

[copious.abundance]

Hmmm . . .

Hmmm . . .

>>> Saudi production up 200K bpd <<<

Hmmm . . .

[Maddog78]

[copious.abundance]

Hmmm . . .

Hmmm . . .

>>> OPEC Output Rose a Fourth Month in July, Survey Shows <<<

Hmmm . . .

At this point I'm almost wanting oil to stay in the 60's, 70's and maybe even the 80's. I'd hate to see Maddog lose his bet.

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schmuto', 'S')eems like a good time to pop this thread again. Oil is about to cross 70. It's moving very aggressively up.
Anybody want to bet me that OPEC production will not be mostly flat or declining over the next 6 months even if oil goes back over 100?

[DantesPeak]

Keep in mind these Bloomberg surveys are just that - surveys of someone's opinion. Frankly I don't even know how these so called experts arrive at their opinion.

OPEC itself uses the 'Oil Movements' reports [which I am posting weekly] which measures exports - not output. Exports have been trending down for the last four months, and are expected to fall in August.

[copious.abundance]

According to the IEA, OPEC all-liquids production this year through June is up roughly 1 million bpd, and crude production is up roughly 500K-750K bpd, eyeballing the charts.


Oilwatch monthly (PDF)

[copious.abundance]

We now have 2 surveys saying OPEC output increased in July.

>>> +100K bpd <<<

Hmmm. . .

[energyhoggin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schmuto', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'I') can not imagine what will happen to oil prices when the global economy picks up just a little bit.Buckle up, we are on a rough ride, fellas.

[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('energyhoggin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schmuto', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'I') can not imagine what will happen to oil prices when the global economy picks up just a little bit.Buckle up, we are on a rough ride, fellas.

[lowem]

Heads up. Crude oil prices have just hit the $75 resistance level.
Nymex.com itself went down for a while (too many excited people trying to refresh the page?)

It's probably part of the $70-75 consolidation pattern, but let's see how it goes from here.

[copious.abundance]

Hmmm ...

>>> Platts: OPEC Bumps Up Output to 28.79MM BOPD <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil production averaged 28.79 million barrels per day (b/d) in August, up 220,000 b/d from July, as Iraq and several other producers raised volumes from the previous month, a Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials and analysts showed September 8.

[lowem]

Back up to $71. If it holds above $75 for a couple of weeks the skeptics might be convinced.

[copious.abundance]

Hmmm . . .

>>> OPEC Output Increased in October, Bloomberg News Survey Shows <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised crude-oil production last month to the highest level in 10 months as members took advantage of higher prices, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

[copious.abundance]

Here we go again! Where's Dr O?

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ECEMBER 1, 2009
OPEC Production Surges as Price Climbs
By SPENCER SWARTZ

LONDON—OPEC oil production is at its highest level in almost a year, an industry survey showed Tuesday, illustrating the cartel's rebound from late 2008 as members capitalize on the comfortable rise in crude prices this year.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries produced on average 26.65 million barrels of oil a day in November, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts and traders. The figures do not include Iraq, which isn't bound by OPEC's output quotas as the other 11 nations are.

That is the highest level since December 2008, when the 12-nation group was scrambling to slash output as the global recession was deepening and crude prices were tumbling.

OPEC, which pumps a little more than 40% of the crude consumed globally every day, is now producing about 1.8 million barrels a day above its formal production target, according to the survey.

The increased output reflects a rising conviction within OPEC that a China-led economic recovery will result in higher oil consumption. It also reflects the fact that some cartel members with financial problems, such as Venezuela, are ignoring their quotas and pumping more oil.

[...]

[Maddog78]

Bwahahaaaaaaaa.

The cornutrolls have chased him away.
He'll be back under a new name any day now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schmuto', 'W')ant to double the bet? The KSA and the rest of OPEC cannot increase production. They'll keep saying that they'll increase at some moving higher price, but they won't - not substantially.

[copious.abundance]

*crickets chirping*

Even the KSA has started exceeding their quota!

>>> OPEC Oil Output Reaches 14-Month High, Survey Shows <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')utput rose 125,000 barrels a day, or 0.4 percent, to an average 29.17 million barrels a day, the highest level since December 2008, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. The January production total was revised 45,000 barrels a day higher.

[...]

Saudi Arabia, the group’s biggest producer, boosted output by 100,000 barrels to 8.25 million barrels a day, the highest level since December 2008. It was the largest increase of any member. The kingdom exceeded its quota by 199,000 barrels a day.