$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')here's Dr O? If I'm not mistaken, this is 7 of the past 8 months OPEC production has risen. And output in May - the month Schmuto started this thread - was 25.74 million bpd . . .

[Maddog78]

That was a pretty easy bet to win.

[copious.abundance]

It wasn't me that made the bet, it was Maddog.

Welcome back Maddog, haven't seen you here in a while.

And BTW, I am in the process of buying a new house that has a gas stove and a gas fireplace. I will use them both generously, to help support your job.

[Maddog78]

Thanks.

I've been gone awhile but I'm not really back.
Just wanted to check on that oil price poll to see how I did.

See this thread

[Daniel_Plainview]

Jeff Rubin: Oil To Triple Digits By The End Of This Year, And New All-Time Highs During Next Year

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')eff Rubin is banging the drum again about an imminent oil spike.

Rather than state what to him is probably obvious -- that demand is surging and supply is not -- Rubin turns it around in his column at Canada's Globe & Mail:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oes anyone still believe the reassuring forecasts from discredited feel-good organizations like the International Energy Agency about new sources of cheap supply, like those that once flowed from places like Prudhoe Bay in Alaska or the North Sea? If so, where is that supply of new affordable oil coming from? Surely not from tar sands or from ultra-deep water fields six miles below the ocean’s floor.

And what will suddenly put the brakes on world demand over the next year that will pull oil prices back from the precipice of triple-digit range? Are car sales about to tank in China and India over the coming months, suddenly halting the otherwise insatiable demand from these countries for more oil? Will OPEC suddenly start charging its drivers and its utilities world oil prices and halt the explosive demand growth in their own economies for the very oil they are supposed to supply to the rest of the world?

[Outcast_Searcher]

To me, Rubin just states the super-obvious. I'm amazed that his primary viewpoint that demand will massively raise prices whenever the world economy recovers sufficiently is so seldomly believed.

I agree 100% with his scenario and fairly recent call for $200 crude prices when things get rockin' and rollin' globally.

My only doubt is with his certainty about the timing. There are still a lot of issues out there for the global economy, especially all the debt and the uncertainties that creates. So, I still think it could take more like 3 - 5 years, but the trend seems mighty clear.

3rd world growth is the clincher - even if you believe that THIS time they'll enforce things like the recently announced 35.5 mpg standard in the US by 2016 (I don't - I think they'll let them off the hook when they whine, which is consistent with US policy about just about all domestic issues these days, especially since the US owns 2 domestic car makers) -- it doesn't matter. 3rd world growth and oil demand will dwarf whatever relative oil savings the 1st world may generate in the coming decade.

This doesn't mean collapse, but it sure seems likely to bring plenty of frownie faces.

[Revi]

Over $85 today. I think we are seeing some movement, but will it hold? In the long term maybe, but I've seen a lot of up and down lately, and I don't think the economy is out of the woods yet.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'O')ver $85 today. I think we are seeing some movement, but will it hold? In the long term maybe, but I've seen a lot of up and down lately, and I don't think the economy is out of the woods yet.

[Sixstrings]

Mainstream media is blaming speculators..

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]What's driving up oil prices again? Wall Street, of course

WASHINGTON — Oil consumption has fallen, demand from U.S. motorists for gasoline is flat at best and refiners that turn crude into fuel are operating well below capacity. Yet oil prices keep marching toward $90 a barrel, pushing gasoline toward $3 a gallon in many markets, and prompting American drivers to ask, "What gives?"

Blame it on the same folks who brought you $140 oil and $4 gasoline in 2008: Wall Street speculators.

Experts attribute much of the recent rise in prices to flows of speculative money into oil markets. These bets are fueled by investor expectations that the U.S. and global economies are poised to return to growth and thus spark increased use of oil.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/04/01/91487/whats-driving-up-oil-prices-again.html

[TheDude]

The blue line is current prices starting in June 2009, where the trend upward began - I can't impose a trend line on a discrete part of a series, unfortunately. I'm using Feb 1982 for the starting point for the other line as it was also a year after the corresponding peak in price for that era, i.e. 36.93 in Feb 1981. As can be seen the price maundered downward for almost exactly 5 years before falling through the floor, dropping 58.6% in five months. For comparison June to Nov 2008 was 63.6%.

So will things stagger around until 2013 and then crash? But the price is headed in the wrong direction as can be seen. However, the Nov 82 price was still 85.92% of the peak - Mar 10 is the corresponding month (22 months out) and is only 62.92% of the Jun 08 peak. More volatility now, too - Sept 09 to Mar 10 averaged 1.36% month to month, while a corresponding interval back then was only 0.12%. Yet demand is higher now! Must be those darn speculators.

Where's that supply glut? UK brought on 490.2 kb/d in 81/82 alone. Only country to top that for 07+08 was Angola. Oh, and Africa/Middle East.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'M')ainstream media is blaming speculators..

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'M')ainstream media is blaming speculators..

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'M')ainstream media is blaming speculators..

[Comp_Lex]

I've been watching the oil prices. This is the best I have to offer for this topic:



The orange line is "Real prices" and the blue lines are my "upper bound / lower bound estimation". You can see that I consider the price spikes in the 70s and in 2008 as bubbles.

[lowem]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Comp_Lex', 'T')he orange line is "Real prices" and the blue lines are my "upper bound / lower bound estimation". You can see that I consider the price spikes in the 70s and in 2008 as bubbles.

[Comp_Lex]

Yes, I use CPI to discount inflation. Actually, I take the prices from the BP statistical review excel document, but I believe that those prices are adjusted for inflation by using CPI. I use the differences between the Hubbert Curve of BP world supply and BP world demand as input for two formulas, which give the prices as result.

Further edit: I've noticed that the recent prices stay near my upper estimation.

[Daniel_Plainview]

WTIC @ $86.50, and that's with a STRONG DOLLAR ...

...YIKES ...

[TreebeardsUncle]

This is just what you want to see!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36176304/ns ... nd_energy/

As prices approach $3 per gallon (79 cents a liter), a mark many analysts expect gas will hit over the next few weeks, the worry is that motorists will cut back spending on fuel and elsewhere.


"It's a price where you start to see demand destruction begin to kick in," Schork said.

Gasoline prices that hit $4.11 per gallon ($1.08 a liter) in July 2008 helped put the U.S. into the worst recession in decades. Oil prices, which hit $147 a barrel that month, fell to $33 by December. Demand for fuel has yet to bounce back, despite the signs that the economy is getting better.

[TreebeardsUncle]

And just recently in the news, there were statements that gasoline would not get much higher this spring. Oil is on its way back up to $100 this summer which will bring gas up to around $3 nationally at least. Have been doing well selling DO, and RIG close to $90 having bought them in the low to mid $80/share range back in January - March.

G