[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '
')
I nominate Timmac as pollyanna of the year...

[timmac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '
')
I nominate Timmac as pollyanna of the year...

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', '
')
It seems if one don't beleave in the Doom and Gloom here than they are subject to redicule till they go away,

[JJ]

perhaps LV is merely experiencing a normal downturn in the economy. quick google:

http://www.gadling.com/2008/09/18/the-e ... egas-hard/

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009/fe ... ealership/

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009/ma ... ealership/

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/dec/25 ... ry-vegas25

http://www.klas-tv.com/Global/story.asp?s=8772733

http://www.gambling911.com/business/fin ... 31109.html

I got 22,500,000. hits for "economy in Las Vegas". These were off the first page.

sounds like things are really picking up there, no?

I of all people do not want any kind of crash. I still have small children at home; I don't own my home. However, to me you sound strikingly like Bagdad Bob or the talking head thats on CNN every morning talking about how the recession is over as another 600,000 jobs go away.

do you think I'm "proud" or "arrogant" because I am concerned that even my 13 year old can see that something is seriously, seriously wrong?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris

last I looked, you are still running out of water, the tourist industry is still declining, the rest of the world seems to me to have actually accelerated their efforts to distance themselves from the UPL.

[OutOfGas]

My wife told me tonight about the bad condition of the Wal Mart produce area. Out of several items.
She said she had never seen them out of this many items. Store employees had no answer.
We live in SW Indiana.

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutOfGas', 'M')y wife told me tonight about the bad condition of the Wal Mart produce area. Out of several items.
She said she had never seen them out of this many items. Store employees had no answer.
We live in SW Indiana.

[the48thronin]

Because it is not PO related, I have refrained from adding some aspects of the article I have been researching. The signs of the end of JIT was only part.

oh and let me start by reviewing, the thread began by discussing the involuntary release of hundreds of leased owner operators from a flat bed division of the company that has the biggest of the Wal-mart d c contracts. as a reminder from the second post I made
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ome companies use independent truckers under their authority... volunteer slaves to their freight and dispatch. These independent ( in name only) truckers might own or rent a trailer from the company who's freight and authority they lease into. This is the class of company Mercer is... An existing leased owner driver is in thrall to them for all their freight but have no recurring cost to the company as they pay for everything including all company expenses. The company ( slave owner) has only to keep them busy enough to keep them from investing the approximate cost of $3000 to leave and go to some other voluntary slave company.

Obviously this company has decided to throw out either 250 or 350 voluntary slaves who have not only invested enough of their own money to own the equipment, but have suffered through the loss in income and expense to go through the entrance process at that company. That is a canary. In effect even voluntary slaves who pay their own way into slavery are no longer needed. Think about what that means to distribution in the next few weeks and months as those slaves franticly search for new masters and like those 10 percent of company divers who are franticly searching for new driving jobs, DO NOT FIND IT! Now consider JIT delivery again.....

[alokin]

It still does not sound very logic that deliveries break down when ships are available, slave workers in China waiting for jobs and slave truck drivers in the US wanting to have a job as well, while oil is cheap and plentiful.

I think the reason of empty shelves is simply the lack of demand. People have less money, hence spend less. Especially they don't spend on stuff supermarkets are stuffed nowadays like ten different salmons 30 different yogurts etc.. For the supermarkets this is a huge loss if people buy flour instead of "Italian cheesecake" or soup bones instead of steak and battery eggs instead of free range. I think all this is simple saving. The chains buy less produce and then they must throw out less. They buy less of the items which sit only in the shelves like old fashioned razor blades or shoe laces but bring little in return and tie up capital.
There is less demand so supermarkets scale back. That only looks a bit odd because they are so overly big. You won't starve having only different yogurts.
The real break down of JIT will come later I am sure, when the next oil spike comes or the next drought or when the infrastructure has rusted too much.

In the end you might see the old grocer coming back.

[JJ]

some anecdotal:

my insurance agent is night stocking where I work; he says he can't make a living selling insurance as no one is buying houses or cars (he's been our agent 10 years).

CEO's are applying for grocery sacking jobs (just temporary, I'm sure). We get stacks of applications each day.

but the medical profession is doing ok:

took my 25 year old bodybuilding son to the ER with bad stomach cramps (he doesn't feel pain, so it must have been BAD) after running a 5k; he was dehydrated, bag of saline solution, 2800.00

kid fell in my yard and needed 7 stitches; ER 790.00 doctor 485.00. we had to get attended in the hall, no room. (I'm not slandering the doctor, I'd hate to have to do this...)

I wonder if I'm going to be selling apples from a cart? As the above post said, we don't need 187 kinds of cat food. When all grocery stores sell is beans and rice, I doubt there will be a need for a produce clerk.

[timmac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', 'I')t still does not sound very logic that deliveries break down when ships are available, slave workers in China waiting for jobs and slave truck drivers in the US wanting to have a job as well, while oil is cheap and plentiful.

I think the reason of empty shelves is simply the lack of demand. People have less money, hence spend less. Especially they don't spend on stuff supermarkets are stuffed nowadays like ten different salmons 30 different yogurts etc.. For the supermarkets this is a huge loss if people buy flour instead of "Italian cheesecake" or soup bones instead of steak and battery eggs instead of free range. I think all this is simple saving. The chains buy less produce and then they must throw out less. They buy less of the items which sit only in the shelves like old fashioned razor blades or shoe laces but bring little in return and tie up capital.
There is less demand so supermarkets scale back. That only looks a bit odd because they are so overly big. You won't starve having only different yogurts.
The real break down of JIT will come later I am sure, when the next oil spike comes or the next drought or when the infrastructure has rusted too much.

In the end you might see the old grocer coming back.

[jdmartin]

OK. I did some reconnaissance work myself tonight. I had to run an errand, so I was near Wallyworld, the one I tried to get my shoelaces, shaving soap and razors a couple of weeks back (for the record, last visit, I got the last of the razors, had to buy an off-brand of the soap, and no shoelaces). I live in the South, a decent metro area, not as big as Atlanta but not podunk either.

First stop, beauty supplies. No double-edged razors, apparently not restocked since I bought them 3 weeks ago. Shaving soap situation still the same, two of the off-brand still on the shelf, and the regular brand slot still empty. But what was shocking was looking around at the shelves. The electric razors, the ones in the locked cabinets, were almost completely gone. There were about 8 feet of shelves, 6 shelves, that had a total of about 10 electric razors on it. So I started looking around other stuff. The cheaper mouthwash shelf almost completely empty. The row of allergy medicine was almost completely empty, as was the nasal decongestant. The aspirin and tylenol had a few boxes but they were spread into different little aisles, there was one or two boxes spread out to make it look like there was a lot. At the end, on the main aisle, there were about 1000 bottles of one item taking up 20 feet of shelf space, and maybe 6 total products filling 100 feet of shelving (full shelves but only 6 different products).

So, on to electronics: the battery section was almost completely empty. The TV section was *really* empty, with 3 or 4 tv's on the shelf and an entire bottom shelf with nothing at all. I looked for a couple of the TV's that were on the shelf and there were no boxed models to be had. The DVD section had 3 or 4 dvd players and nothing on 3 shelves.

Now off to get the shoelaces: the racks were *EXACTLY THE SAME* as they were 3 weeks ago. One rack completely empty except for 1 pair of shoelaces, the other rack with half a dozen boot shoelaces and nothing else. So much for restocking them in a day or two like the associate told me 3 weeks ago . I strolled around the shoe and automotive section and there were big empty slots with nothing in them.

So I went to the food section: the sugar shelf, about 40 feet long, had maybe 15 bags of sugar on it. The Wallyworld soda shelf was almost completely empty over 50 feet or so. Bottled water had maybe 20-30 gallons on 30 feet of shelf, mostly one bottle deep. Meat looked pretty thin all the way around. I went to the produce section and things like tomatoes had 10 or 15 in each huge box. There was a produce guy putting some berries on the shelf and I asked him when do they restock the produce shelves. He told me they restock the shelves around the clock, they don't wait for any specific time. Apparently there wasn't much to restock with, because he only had a few things of berries on his cart and it wasn't even enough to fill the space he was stocking.

My last stop was the main drag, the big aisle that runs the length of the registers. This are had about 500 feet of *nothing* about 50 feet wide. It was downright weird. Usually there's all kinds of bins with different stuff here, since this is the main traffic area for people to buy their last-minute crap.

Bottom line for me is this really proves to me a lot of what 48th says. Was there still a lot of stuff in the store? Certainly there was; I wouldn't have left hungry. But there were a whole lot of empty spaces that, for years, have always been bulging to the seams with stuff. One of the main reasons I always hated having to go to Walmart was because you couldn't hardly get around. Well, that wasn't any kind of problem tonight. I ended up having to leave without shoelaces or razors, and no one could tell me when I would be able to get them.

I took a bunch of pictures, but unfortunately so far I haven't fgured out how to get them from my phone to the computer. When I do, I will post them.

[jdmartin]

OK lets try some pictures:

Wally drugs

Wally tvs

Wally main aisle

Wally main aisle other direction

Wally soda

Wally shoelaces

[jdmartin]

wally water

[jdmartin]

I've got more pics, but anyway, you get the idea...

[TWilliam]

Thanks for that detailed report jdmartin.

Something that I think some of the folks here don't understand is just how significant these empty spaces are in a Walmart especially.

Walmart was built first and foremost on the efficiency of its inventory control systems, including its 'warehouse on wheels' JIT delivery fleet. It was virtually unheard of for an item to remain out of stock in any Walmart store for even twelve hours. If the last of an item sold at 8PM in the evening, it would be restocked by 8AM the following morning. Yes, their system is that good. Large areas of empty shelf space simply were not seen for the extended periods of time that myself and others are witnessing. While it may not be especially unusual in smaller stores, it is a truly unprecedented phenomenon in Walmart.

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', 'T')hanks for that detailed report jdmartin.

Something that I think some of the folks here don't understand is just how significant these empty spaces are in a Walmart especially.

Walmart was built first and foremost on the efficiency of its inventory control systems, including its 'warehouse on wheels' JIT delivery fleet. It was virtually unheard of for an item to remain out of stock in any Walmart store for even twelve hours. If the last of an item sold at 8PM in the evening, it would be restocked by 8AM the following morning. Yes, their system is that good. Large areas of empty shelf space simply were not seen for the extended periods of time that myself and others are witnessing. While it may not be especially unusual in smaller stores, it is a truly unprecedented phenomenon in Walmart.

[Jotapay]

I did reconnaissance at the local hospitals when swine flu hit. Nothing but several police cars with lights on and loitering officers, with empty ER rooms. I can do the same of the grocery stores. They are all full, tho.

I do have to admit, when I go to my local SuperTarget and some other big box stores like Office Max and whatnot to get supplies for stuff, the stores are surprisingly empty of shoppers. Everything is empty (of shoppers) except Best Buy, grocery stores, Starbucks and most restaurants. Inventory is fully stocked however. I do notice that some lesser known but still quite excellent restaurants are half-full on Friday night, which is unheard of in this town which loves to go out.

You do have to remember I live about 3 or 4 miles from I-35, which is the designated super-highway from Mexico to Canada. Everything for the North American continent will flow past me, if their NAU plans succeed.

[the48thronin]

What can it be like out near the ends of the JIT chain?

5/21 evanston, wyo from my website

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') went into Wally world at 1230 pm. They were just finished restocking their shelves and were finishing off putting out the last few boxes of chicken portions.

[Gerben]

I don't think JIT distribution is really being threatened. I work for a wholesale company and we are also seeing more empty shelves. When the turnover drops, you must reduce your stocks or profits go down. For many companies insufficient credit is another reason to reduce stocks.
As soon as demand increases we will also increase our stocks again. Right now customers have an increased chance of not getting what they need right away. This does not apply to our JIT customers: we will keep enough supply to meet their forecasts.
Forecasts are improving by the way.

[dunewalker]

nevermind...