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Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby timmac » Mon 11 May 2009, 20:38:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'w')almart Topeka ks

I didn't bother to hang up on my wife ( we were chatting on the phone) but I could have taken as many pictures at 9 pm last night of empty shelves, and empty meat counters and empty produce bins as i wanted... they were everywhere in the store.

Dressing was not keeping up although they were trying.

New areas where significant dressing and vacancies were appearing canned tomato pastes, canned veggies, and canned meats...HMMMMMM

I will try to visit a couple of other food stores on my way to gulfport ms this weekend.




This is funny, most posters here say they don't see the same thing, here in Vegas all shelves are full every where, most anything can be had today or the next.

I just don't see this problem of shelves being empty or almost empty, no news any where has reported this as well. :mrgreen:
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby the48thronin » Tue 12 May 2009, 02:06:59

I am in Alabama loading today for Reno.. My wife is in New Mexico on vacation and will arrive in Reno Thursday and stay over till Saturday.

With any luck sometime next week I will be cruising the isles of a few stores in Lost Wages and see those filled and bulging shelves for myself. ( Depends on if I can load out of Reno with something that I can drag south and across 40 and have time to spare.)

Either way Mary will look around Reno a little during Friday or I will over the weekend. ( I won't unload until Monday I am sure and Mary will leave Saturday giving me time to camera shop). I usually take pictures early Saturday morning.

Possibly you will volunteer for me the locations in Lost Wages of those bulging Wal- Marts, I wouldn't want to find out I was in one of the blighted neighborhoods. ( Come to think of it with the number of foreclosed and empty houses I see listed that might be all the neighborhoods HUH?)

I realize the evening news nor the daily paper are reporting shelf dressing and distribution failure.I am not surprised about that. But those pictures I have been posting were taken by me at the dates and times mentioned. You can continue to scoff.. I really doubt the DC in St George has better stocks of most things than the DCs that service Washington D C, Baltimore, Topeka,and Effingham.

If I see no sign of the shortages and covering up I see in every other Wal-Mart I have visited in the last month, I will be the first one to say so. This forums value is not only the news people pick from myriad sources on the net, but the posts reflecting personal experience as well.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby the48thronin » Tue 12 May 2009, 02:20:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', 'J')ust a little comment about the auto industry and JIT. I doubt that any manufacturer runs their shops so tight that parts are still 200 miles away and needed on the same shift.

I deliver to one of the Japanese manufacturers daily and can tell you first hand that parts usually sit in our yard for a day before they are needed at the plant. Our yard is a block away. Tier one stuff like dashboards, seats, windows etc. have multiple shuttles direct from the supplier to the factory. None of these suppliers is more than an hour away.

Of course when the suppliers go tits up GM et al will need to get new suppliers pronto, won't they?

Drew


Windsor is kinda small to think every auto plant runs on the same sort of schedule. Border jumping parts probably are delivered on a day ahead to your yard... If I had to deal with that bridge every day I would like that supplier put an extra days production in train just to deal with that border and the beautiful weather conditions you have in the winter...LOL But even in Windsor that window at the plant puts those parts to the door as long after the chassis starts down the line as it is needed I bet.

Saturn in Tennessee is serviced by Ryder dedicated logistics, the tier one suppliers are as far away as Louisville KY, Cincinnati oh, and Atlanta GA among others.. I have one friend who for all of last summer was in fact on a run that left Kentucky on a one hour window with what ever they had on the trailer, and had to be at the door in another window.. Many times he would be as far as 200 miles away when the chassis started down the assembly line with as a matter of fact the dash board.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby TWilliam » Tue 12 May 2009, 03:02:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'I') just don't see this problem of shelves being empty or almost empty, no news any where has reported this as well. :mrgreen:


And you likely won't hear much (if anything) about it in the news until it's pretty impossible to ignore, and for a very good reason that is easily summed up in two words:

'Food riots.'

Anyway if you were paying attention you would understand that we haven't really been saying anything about shelves being 'empty or almost empty'. What we're noticing are things like more empty spaces on shelves, something that retailers normally go to great pains to avoid; more aisle space where before there were far more 'impulse buy' items crowding that space; more spacing between racks; less variety of certain types of products while there are larger quantities shelved of the fewer choices available, or alternatively being spread over a broader area of shelf space while being 'faced' only two or three items deep where before the shelf was filled all the way back; shallower shelving, a tactic that almost no one notices but that I have watched for specifically; things that we buy regularly that are 'never' out now sometimes being unavailable for weeks...

Most people never even perceive these kinds of things if they're not looking for them; they go into the store intent on their shopping without ever taking notice. But if you've actually been watching for them, they are definitely occurring...
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby Roy » Tue 12 May 2009, 07:08:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyway if you were paying attention you would understand that we haven't really been saying anything about shelves being 'empty or almost empty'. What we're noticing are things like more empty spaces on shelves, something that retailers normally go to great pains to avoid; more aisle space where before there were far more 'impulse buy' items crowding that space; more spacing between racks; less variety of certain types of products while there are larger quantities shelved of the fewer choices available, or alternatively being spread over a broader area of shelf space while being 'faced' only two or three items deep where before the shelf was filled all the way back; shallower shelving, a tactic that almost no one notices but that I have watched for specifically; things that we buy regularly that are 'never' out now sometimes being unavailable for weeks...

Most people never even perceive these kinds of things if they're not looking for them; they go into the store intent on their shopping without ever taking notice. But if you've actually been watching for them, they are definitely occurring...


What Twilliam said.

I see it too at my local WalMart Super Center. Not overt, but as 48T has been saying, the aisles are getting wider, there are more empty spaces on the shelves, and less variety.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 12 May 2009, 09:06:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'I') am in Alabama loading today for Reno.. My wife is in New Mexico on vacation and will arrive in Reno Thursday and stay over till Saturday.

With any luck sometime next week I will be cruising the isles of a few stores in Lost Wages and see those filled and bulging shelves for myself. ( Depends on if I can load out of Reno with something that I can drag south and across 40 and have time to spare.)

Either way Mary will look around Reno a little during Friday or I will over the weekend. ( I won't unload until Monday I am sure and Mary will leave Saturday giving me time to camera shop). I usually take pictures early Saturday morning.

Possibly you will volunteer for me the locations in Lost Wages of those bulging Wal- Marts, I wouldn't want to find out I was in one of the blighted neighborhoods. ( Come to think of it with the number of foreclosed and empty houses I see listed that might be all the neighborhoods HUH?)

I realize the evening news nor the daily paper are reporting shelf dressing and distribution failure.I am not surprised about that. But those pictures I have been posting were taken by me at the dates and times mentioned. You can continue to scoff.. I really doubt the DC in St George has better stocks of most things than the DCs that service Washington D C, Baltimore, Topeka,and Effingham.

If I see no sign of the shortages and covering up I see in every other Wal-Mart I have visited in the last month, I will be the first one to say so. This forums value is not only the news people pick from myriad sources on the net, but the posts reflecting personal experience as well.


Personal experience is best, please report back soon. 8)
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 12 May 2009, 09:09:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roy', 'W')hat Twilliam said. I see it too at my local WalMart Super Center. Not overt, but as 48T has been saying, the aisles are getting wider, there are more empty spaces on the shelves, and less variety.

Yup, I'm seeing shallower shelving. I mention this this to follow shoppers and I get funny looks. :badgrin:
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby TWilliam » Tue 12 May 2009, 11:07:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'Y')up, I'm seeing shallower shelving. I mention this this to follow shoppers and I get funny looks. :badgrin:

I'd look at you funny too if you were following me around the store babbling about the shelves... :razz:
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 12 May 2009, 11:21:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', 'I')'d look at you funny too if you were following me around the store babbling about the shelves... :razz:

At least I'm not on my cell phone. Matter of fact, I don't own one. 8)
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby TWilliam » Tue 12 May 2009, 11:34:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'A')t least I'm not on my cell phone. Matter of fact, I don't own one. 8)

Phew, that's good. I'd be pretty spooked if I found out I was talking to a cell phone posing as a human... 8O
I reluctantly surrendered to the 'need' for one only a few years ago. I leave it off or silenced most of the time tho', and I don't interrupt conversations with people in my presence to answer it if it does ring, I don't walk around in public blathering away for the world to hear, and for god's sake I don't talk on it while driving (people who do should be shot, or at least arrested for reckless endangerment)...
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 12 May 2009, 11:37:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', 'P')hew, that's good. I'd be pretty spooked if I found out I was talking to a cell phone posing as a human... 8O I reluctantly surrendered to the 'need' for one only a few years ago. I leave it off or silenced most of the time tho', and I don't interrupt conversations with people in my presence to answer it if it does ring, I don't walk around in public blathering away for the world to hear, and for god's sake I don't talk on it while driving (people who do should be shot, or at least arrested for reckless endangerment)...

I'm glad. :)
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby timmac » Tue 12 May 2009, 13:27:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', 'A')nd you likely won't hear much (if anything) about it in the news until it's pretty impossible to ignore, and for a very good reason that is easily summed up in two words: 'Food riots.' --snip--
Most people never even perceive these kinds of things if they're not looking for them; they go into the store intent on their shopping without ever taking notice. But if you've actually been watching for them, they are definitely occurring...

Wider aisles and few things less on shelves is not a shortage problem, if you have noticed people have been buying less in all areas so some stores are stocking less, it only makes sense, but no one is complaining that I know of that they are not getting what they want.
Last edited by timmac on Tue 12 May 2009, 18:04:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby timmac » Tue 12 May 2009, 13:39:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'I') am in Alabama loading today for Reno.. My wife is in New Mexico on vacation and will arrive in Reno Thursday and stay over till Saturday. --snip--
If I see no sign of the shortages and covering up I see in every other Wal-Mart I have visited in the last month, I will be the first one to say so. This forums value is not only the news people pick from myriad sources on the net, but the posts reflecting personal experience as well.

Sure check the Walmart or Samsclub on Centennial Blvd in NW Las Vegas, grocery stores in the NW around Craig and 95 and what ever you want, by the way are you at the stores way earlier before some items are stocked and just because they are stocking certain things less means no shortage problems, you do know folks are buying less now days and stores are stocking less, it only makes sense, but this does not mean there is a shortage or delivery problems, I don't know any one that has gone without as of yet and don't see it happening any time soon.. Also anyone can take a pic of a near empty shelve and make a big story around it.. :mrgreen:

If you are coming from Reno to Las Vegas you will pass right by Walmart and Samsclub on Centennial/95 as you entry the valley, I shop there a lot and there is plenty on there shelves, no its not always 20 deep of every item but enough to keep every one happy and shopping carts full.. :mrgreen:
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby JJ » Tue 12 May 2009, 21:17:28

I work at a small grocery store in Burnet, Texas. We are having shortages/delivery problems. Plus in order to save money now instead of double stacking pallets in the trailers, they are stacking them to the ceiling of each trailer in order to utilize more space. Which requires downstacking them by hand (which I don't mind, since they are paying me). But just saying. Also governors on the trucks. Plus an inordinate amount of rotting produce on each mornings load (are they holding it in the warehouse longer than normal?) And a very large increase in prices (we posted something like 69% increase in net profit YOY) But they offset this by having the product really cheap the week before it skyrockets. But I imagine we are the exception.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Tue 12 May 2009, 21:38:14

My husband was complaining today about the neighborhood Wal-Mart not having the brand of pickles he likes. He was surprised that there were none available at all.

It's pretty evident to me that there's delivery issues going on, I've seen empty shelves/areas/aisles at several stores in the area already over the last few months. Doesn't last long, but it's still disturbing. :|
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Tue 12 May 2009, 21:51:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cbxer55', 'M')aybe you should try shopping at Crest instead of china world. I have not yet seen anything short at the Crest on Douglas and Reno, including the brand of pickles I like, as well as my favorite brand of pepperoncini. Anyway I have not noticed any shortages lately myself, always leave with a basket full of everything we wanted when we entered the joint.
I was in a Home Depot yesterday and it was fully stocked, as usual.

I seldom go into wally world these days. I don't really like it. I mostly shop at the food co-op and the health food center up off the 240 and Penn, supplemented by my garden and the occasional trip to Brahms for milk. Husband is a different story, he's on a new diet and instead of telling me what's on it he goes to the store himself :|
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby the48thronin » Tue 12 May 2009, 23:08:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'A')t least I'm not not my cell phone. Matter of fact, I don't own one. 8)

LOL that was me pretending to be talking on the cell while actually taking pictures and emailing them from my cell phone to my email address LOL Good thing I am used to talking with the voices in my head, no one suspects....snicker!

I may have to pass on the personal visit to lost wages walmart, and be satisfied with reno... my agent called me today and is trying to get me to agree to load in reno to michigan...
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby the48thronin » Tue 12 May 2009, 23:32:38

YUKON pets and people... good folk.

I stop and shop at the wally world there a lot because they built truck parking spaces on the north side of the store..

One of the picture albums comes from there early in this thread.

Two of my friends have lost thier trucks this year so far.. one of them lives south of the TCA closest to down town okie city... He found a job driving an end dump localy gets paid by the hour.

His truck went through the auction, he paid 80,000 in November, it auctioned for 16,000. He will still owe the rest. chapter 7 time.
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby VMarcHart » Wed 13 May 2009, 09:21:49

Whereas it's very interesting to hear news about empty shelves, I'm still struggling with linking empty shelves solely to the breakdown of the JIT system.

We're in the middle of a financial crisis never seen in nearly a century. Our pompous life-style is following apart. Massive layoffs, foreclosures, losses of equity, bankruptcies, contraction, etc.

Couldn't it be the reason we're complaining we can't find our favorite brand of pickles is because:
a. the pickle company went under
b. that line has been losing money and the maker discontinued it
c. the producer of that pickle went under
d. consumers are buying essentials only and that made the line unprofitable
e. you last person in your neighborhood who can afford pickles so the retailer says why bother?
f. etc, etc.

There are numerous reasons in addition to the fact the trucker learned the hard way he/she can't make a living hauling half-full trucks, right?
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Re: Signs of the beginning of the breakdown of JIT distribution.

Unread postby vision-master » Wed 13 May 2009, 09:41:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'I') work at a small grocery store in Burnet, Texas. We are having shortages/delivery problems. Plus in order to save money now instead of double stacking pallets in the trailers, they are stacking them to the ceiling of each trailer in order to utilize more space. Which requires downstacking them by hand (which I don't mind, since they are paying me). But just saying. Also governors on the trucks. Plus an inordinate amount of rotting produce on each mornings load (are they holding it in the warehouse longer than normal?) And a very large increase in prices (we posted something like 69% increase in net profit YOY) But they offset this by having the product really cheap the week before it skyrockets. But I imagine we are the exception.



I talked to the stock person at Alidi's yesterday. She said fresh produce is becoming a problem.
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