[copious.abundance]

Just pointing it out. With the recent effort by the moderators to merge duplicate threads it seems ppl should make more effort to first check to see if there's a thread already for a topic before they start yet another one.

[eastbay]

Actually, that particular thread addressed a single statement of Simmons.

This thread is intended as a compilation of all predictions and IMO doesn't require merging.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'A')ctually, that particular thread addressed a single statement of Simmons.

This thread is intended as a compilation of all predictions and IMO doesn't require merging.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')I don't believe that what Simmons (or you me or the Baby Jesus) says about PO makes a much of a difference.

[threadbear]

I warned people here about this guy years ago. He's a neo con, an oil insider, and for all anyone knows, he could be tasked to get out there and pump up the price of oil shares. Peak oil theory is likely correct, but Simmons has been all wrong. How many people on this forum, bought oil shares based on his predictions? Seriously....and did he benefit, indirectly?

I listened to him the other day, and he's ludicrous. He says one of the reasons oil HAS to go up is the cost to replace infrastructure is going to be 100 trillion dollars. So, he's kind of arguing from a false premise. It's what the market will bear, not how much oil industry "needs". If it's going to cost 100 trillion, oil would have to be like a thousand bucks a barrel for how many years?

Is he a math nerd? Really smart with details but not very when it comes to the big picture and the real world? Every argument he makes to support high prices could just as easily be turned around to support the idea that it will very soon become a very obsolete form of energy. Oil's use in the very near future could be confined to plastics production ,fertilizers, and an essential ingredient used by the chemical industry.

100 trillion to replace infrastructure??In a pig's eye. Not going to happen. The guys got dollar signs and oil derricks in his eyes.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')
Simmons thinks we are in big trouble and he is very wealthy. He could say 'screw it' and disappear on his yacht.

At least he is not a vindictive little prick like the deniers that flock to this place.

[Schmuto]

Is it just me or have the threads on PO.com gotten more shrill and bickery recently.

I started reading in late 05, so it's been about 3.5 years.

It seems to me every thread has a back and forth between at least two posters.

Pstarr seems to have his panties in quite a wad recently.
Mos is always the contrarian, but seems to be moreso than ever.
JD seems more aggressive too.

Is it just me?

I'm not talking about a rant here and a rant there. I'm talking about the fact that reading these threads makes me feel like I'm listening to my two youngsters on a bad cabin fever day.

Just pointless bickering.

Anyway, maybe I've just been away too long.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schmuto', 'I')s it just me or have the threads on PO.com gotten more shrill and bickery recently.

I started reading in late 05, so it's been about 3.5 years.

It seems to me every thread has a back and forth between at least two posters.

Pstarr seems to have his panties in quite a wad recently.
Mos is always the contrarian, but seems to be moreso than ever.
JD seems more aggressive too.

Is it just me?

I'm not talking about a rant here and a rant there. I'm talking about the fact that reading these threads makes me feel like I'm listening to my two youngsters on a bad cabin fever day.

Just pointless bickering.

Anyway, maybe I've just been away too long.

[Micki]

For those of you who haven't completely given up on Simmons, here is his latest speach&slides; The world's biggest bet
http://worldenergysource.com/hottopics/ ... cfm?&id=28

[mefistofeles]

I believe Matt Simmons is wrong about Peak Oil,not so much peak oil per see, but the economics of peak oil. Simmons believes the oil industry is a price taker and markets and not very efficient.

I on the other hand believe that the markets do have a rhyme and reason, I believe that they operate logarithimically. As oil nears maximum production I think the price difference between 97-99% energy use is a geometric and not an arithmetic relationship. As we near the peak the stresses vis a vis prices become much more extreme as we near the peak via geometric steps, not arithmetic ones. So therefore prices may double or tripple if oil use increases 2-3%. Conversely as we back away from the peak oil prices could appear "collapse".

Also another factor at play is Jevon's paradox. Here in LA I notice that traffic isn't any better than it was last year , despite the huge drop off in oil and gasoline prices(40% for retail gasoline). In fact even as the economy contracts driving hasn't gone down very much here at all, in fact as the price of oil drops it becomes easier for people to drive more and helps cushion the effect of this economic collapse.

I also believe that markets are not forward looking but backwards looking, they assume the future will be like the past. So therefore if oil consumption in 08 and through 09 had continued to grow as it had in 04-07 I think we would be looking at real shortages. This also explains why oil prices are so low now, because the markets have assumed the demand will be stagnat vis a vis supply.

[Revi]

I think more and more people are wrecked by the economy, and quit using as much oil. That gives a temporary reprieve, and the price of oil goes down.

You may be right. We may not see rising prices, but it doesn't matter because we will all be so poor we can't afford a car anyway.

The auto industry is down around 40%, so there will be fewer cars on the road eventually.

It may take a few years.

Get yourself a good pair of walking shoes.

[Aaron]

Nice post.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mefistofeles', 'I') believe Matt Simmons is wrong about Peak Oil,

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '[') So yes there is elasticity at the margins, but over time since we industrialized petroleum use always increases at 2% per year regardless of recessions etc. (except for that one time period in the late 70' and early 80's, when the Moore's Law of Conservation kicked in once and only once.)

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'T')his is the guy [Matt Simmons] who said the Saudi's were toast, right?