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THE Unemployment Thread pt 2 (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 01:28:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', '
')
Just last week, the new United States director of national intelligence, Dennis C. Blair, told Congress that instability caused by the global economic crisis had become the biggest security threat facing the United States, outpacing terrorism.


Basically, "Rise in Joblessness" is Newzspeak for being left hung out to dry in a society in which the distribution of resources to the masses is dependent on money distributed out through "work", wherein work is really just producing lots of goods people don't really need. The excess production of goods and services people don't really need is an artifact of the Capitalist system.

About ALL the things the Japanese and Chinese produce in their factories, from the Plasma TVs to the Wiis to even my precious Laptop aren't really necessary for survival. Really, if you just honed it down to the food production apparatus, maybe 1% of people need to be employed to feed EVERYBODY, and that would be including all the folks moving the food around thru the transportation system.

So the question is, if you don't really need people to work for the most part to produce enough food for them to eat (and as long as you aren't producing all the other flotsam and jetsam of the Oil age, what we have left will produce food for quite some time to come), HOW do you distribute out said food to the people if they don't have to WORK for it, and in fact CAN'T work for it because there are no JOBS anybody wants to pay them to do?

Resolve this question, and you will go a long way toward resolving the problem of Joblessness and the Social Unrest it will be causing here in the near future. Its not the Joblessness, its the lack of money to buy food that is the problem.

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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby Fredrik » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 07:43:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'S')o the question is, if you don't really need people to work for the most part to produce enough food for them to eat (and as long as you aren't producing all the other flotsam and jetsam of the Oil age, what we have left will produce food for quite some time to come), HOW do you distribute out said food to the people if they don't have to WORK for it, and in fact CAN'T work for it because there are no JOBS anybody wants to pay them to do?


The government must intervene and set up an alternative system where jobless people are assigned other tasks. Refuse to work at your assigned task, and you'll get no food stamp. That's the only viable option I can come up with - and I'm no socialist.

It would be easier if we could start reforming the current system immediately with a broad social consensus, without having to go through stuff like revolutions, civil wars, anarchy etc. :)
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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby gt1370a » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 11:12:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'T')he excess production of goods and services people don't really need is an artifact of the Capitalist system.

About ALL the things the Japanese and Chinese produce in their factories, from the Plasma TVs to the Wiis to even my precious Laptop aren't really necessary for survival. Really, if you just honed it down to the food production apparatus, maybe 1% of people need to be employed to feed EVERYBODY, and that would be including all the folks moving the food around thru the transportation system.


How do you figure that's an outgrowth of capitalism?

I find your selection of "excess" goods interesting. I would argue that those things do have added value in that they improve standard of living, albeit going from a 720p plasma TV to a 1080p isn't much of an improvement - anyway, my point is that what I would consider "excess" would be all the bs accountants, admins, techs, etc. who have to run around pushing paperwork to comply with government regulations like tax requirements. It seems to me that most of the truly "excess" jobs have been created by the government, with the express purpose of increasing employment and tax revenue.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o the question is, if you don't really need people to work for the most part to produce enough food for them to eat (and as long as you aren't producing all the other flotsam and jetsam of the Oil age, what we have left will produce food for quite some time to come), HOW do you distribute out said food to the people if they don't have to WORK for it, and in fact CAN'T work for it because there are no JOBS anybody wants to pay them to do?


The solution will be more of the same. The government will create more useless jobs, which will further reduce real productivity. Taken to the extreme, we could follow the East German model, where anyone who was unemployed was paid to put on a uniform and march by the Berlin wall. Of course you see how well that turned out, East Germany no longer exists as it failed and was taken over by its capitalist counterpart. But anyway, how many millions could be employed by building and patrolling walls along the canadian and mexican borders? How many "jobs" could be created by outlawing overtime, going to a 30-hour work week, banning the use of machinery to replace manual labor, etc. Hell, we could pay people to ride stationary bikes hooked to the electric grid. The problem is, none of that improves productivity or standard of living. But it does solve the government problem of "unemployment" or your problem of coming up with a mechanism to allocate food.

The other alternative would be the Chinese model - "do this or we will shoot you in the head."
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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby sameu » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 14:00:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')So the question is, if you don't really need people to work for the most part to produce enough food for them to eat (and as long as you aren't producing all the other flotsam and jetsam of the Oil age, what we have left will produce food for quite some time to come), HOW do you distribute out said food to the people if they don't have to WORK for it, and in fact CAN'T work for it because there are no JOBS anybody wants to pay them to do?

Resolve this question, and you will go a long way toward resolving the problem of Joblessness and the Social Unrest it will be causing here in the near future. Its not the Joblessness, its the lack of money to buy food that is the problem.

Reverse Engineer


I agree
why would everybody be working all the time? that one percent forfood could be done by a rotating workforce
sure no hdtv, but in return you could actually live instead of working your ass off producing crap so you could afford crap
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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby vision-master » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 14:18:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') find your selection of "excess" goods interesting. I would argue that those things do have added value in that they improve standard of living, albeit going from a 720p plasma TV to a 1080p isn't much of an improvement - anyway, my point is that what I would consider "excess" would be all the bs accountants, admins, techs, etc. who have to run around pushing paperwork to comply with government regulations like tax requirements. It seems to me that most of the truly "excess" jobs have been created by the government, with the express purpose of increasing employment and tax revenue.


HELLO, HMO's..................

Whatever happened to the family doctor who makes house calls? :cry:

Typical right-wing fundie responce. :lol:
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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby lawnchair » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 14:55:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', '
')I agree
why would everybody be working all the time? that one percent forfood could be done by a rotating workforce
sure no hdtv, but in return you could actually live instead of working your ass off producing crap so you could afford crap


Such was always the alternative. The fact that, gee, we've got room in society for more shoe salemen, marketing execs, and hairdressers than farmers is a result of the awesome power of science, technology, and fossil-fueled energy to relieve us from all having to be farmers.

Indeed, we could have drifted toward a 30-hour-week. And a 20. And a 15.

This was not in the interests of the type-A personalities that were in competition with each other for 'growth'.

And, this was not in the interests of governments. Idle hands are revolutionary hands.

I can't remember if ReverseEngineer pointed me to this article, or not, but I like the reasoning.
At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby gt1370a » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 17:19:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '
')Typical right-wing fundie responce. :lol:


You're right bro, it's effing great that businesses have to pay $60,000 salaries plus full benefits to a bunch of people that make sure we're jumping through the right government hoops, and that governments constantly create more and more increasingly complicated regulations so that more such worker bees have to be hired.

Or maybe I just didn't understand your response.
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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 17:27:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fredrik', '
')
The government must intervene and set up an alternative system where jobless people are assigned other tasks. Refuse to work at your assigned task, and you'll get no food stamp. That's the only viable option I can come up with - and I'm no socialist.


A Make Work Project is the most obvious solution, and so far not on the Horizon in the Obamanation. The theory they seem to have is that if you throw enough toilet paper at the Banksters, the Market will respond and magically produce jobs to start employing people again.

Because of the inefficiency and perceived failures of both Red China and the Soviet States, the common wisdom is that Command Economies don't work as well as Capitalism. However, given that Capitalism has proven itself to be a complete and magnificent FAILURE here, you really have to scrap this monetary system and set up a command economy where you define the value of everything and set production goals and so forth. That would be the only way to provide some sort of work for everyone with the current system in a state of catastrophic failure.

It doesn't resolve the problem of finding the RIGHT types of work that are productive and not destructive to the environment however. Another good project for us here on Peak Oil would be to define some jobs and industries to run in our Command Economy, and model how many people we would set to each task. Land reclamation could be one job, horse breeders and stall shovelers another, etc.

Another thing to discuss would be what your measures of individual prodcutivity are and how to compensate your workforce in order to reward people for good industrious behaviors whcih are helpful to the population. This in order to not end up with people who aren't motivated and show up drunk to work every day or not at all. Plenty of meat in this topic.

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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby Quinny » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 17:31:50

This is where you and I agree, but also part company in some ways, as you think the collapse of the financial system will destroy the world. Does that have to be the case!

Like you said a very small % of people are actually producing real wealth (food and othe useful goods). If we can move to a situation where we all work to nurture the earths resources, just think what we could produce.

Although there are too many people for sustainability, we could work towards a soft landing if we were't hung up on the capitalist system of perpetual growth!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', '
')
Just last week, the new United States director of national intelligence, Dennis C. Blair, told Congress that instability caused by the global economic crisis had become the biggest security threat facing the United States, outpacing terrorism.


Basically, "Rise in Joblessness" is Newzspeak for being left hung out to dry in a society in which the distribution of resources to the masses is dependent on money distributed out through "work", wherein work is really just producing lots of goods people don't really need. The excess production of goods and services people don't really need is an artifact of the Capitalist system.

About ALL the things the Japanese and Chinese produce in their factories, from the Plasma TVs to the Wiis to even my precious Laptop aren't really necessary for survival. Really, if you just honed it down to the food production apparatus, maybe 1% of people need to be employed to feed EVERYBODY, and that would be including all the folks moving the food around thru the transportation system.

So the question is, if you don't really need people to work for the most part to produce enough food for them to eat (and as long as you aren't producing all the other flotsam and jetsam of the Oil age, what we have left will produce food for quite some time to come), HOW do you distribute out said food to the people if they don't have to WORK for it, and in fact CAN'T work for it because there are no JOBS anybody wants to pay them to do?

Resolve this question, and you will go a long way toward resolving the problem of Joblessness and the Social Unrest it will be causing here in the near future. Its not the Joblessness, its the lack of money to buy food that is the problem.

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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby Ludi » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 17:35:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')
A Make Work Project is the most obvious solution, and so far not on the Horizon in the Obamanation.



"Obama's spending bill, which will be funded entirely by the taxpayer, aims to create or save millions of jobs by beginning work on thousands of New Deal-style projects to renew the country's crumbling infrastructure. It also provides aid for the unemployed, help for schoolchildren and students, and various energy measures."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/fe ... mulus-plan

Plus tax cuts, of course.
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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby Ludi » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 17:38:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')
Another thing to discuss would be what your measures of individual prodcutivity are and how to compensate your workforce in order to reward people for good industrious behaviors whcih are helpful to the population.



I'm not that into industrious behavior myself. I think most people work too hard, so I encourage everyone to sit around a lot. When we had my husband's niece here to work with us on a large project, we encouraged her to spend the bulk of her workday sitting in the sun reading, taking walks, and working on her own projects.
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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 17:47:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'T')his is where you and I agree, but also part company in some ways, as you think the collapse of the financial system will destroy the world. Does that have to be the case!

Like you said a very small % of people are actually producing real wealth (food and othe useful goods). If we can move to a situation where we all work to nurture the earths resources, just think what we could produce.

Although there are too many people for sustainability, we could work towards a soft landing if we were't hung up on the capitalist system of perpetual growth!


I never said anywhere that I think the collapse of the financial system will destroy the world. What is possible is that this collapse sets of in motion a chain of other events which could end in Thermonuclear War, which itself might or might not extinguish human life for good. What I have made the case for on numerous occassions is that even a die off down to 10,000 Human Souls such as was the case after Toba erupted can eventually lead to a repopulation of the earth up to its resource limits.

The problem you are faced with now in a monetary system collapse is the vast change in paradigm that people aren;t prepared for and in no way really comprehend. The concept of Money and its use for commerce and as a means for defining wealth has been around since the dawn of agriculture, and the scheme of fiat money has been with us since Sir Isaac Newton and the Bank of England dropped it on us 300 years ago. Inventing a new way of operating in the absence of this type of money, in the absence of the idea of garnering "interest" on money and above all learning to manage shrinkage as opposed to growth is the great challenge we have before us to avoid devolving into a new Dark Age and complete social anarchy.

The greatest problem I see here is that at the moment we do not have any Political Leaders with sufficient vision who understand the true depth of this problem, and thus we are getting Band Aids which in no way are stopping the bleeding here, and the patient is dieing. Wit the system as it is, I also do not see any possibility for the right kind of leadership to emerge here in the near future. The system as a whole is going to have to crash before we can attempt to start over with a different set of principles.

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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 17:54:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')
A Make Work Project is the most obvious solution, and so far not on the Horizon in the Obamanation.



"Obama's spending bill, which will be funded entirely by the taxpayer, aims to create or save millions of jobs by beginning work on thousands of New Deal-style projects to renew the country's crumbling infrastructure. It also provides aid for the unemployed, help for schoolchildren and students, and various energy measures."


That might be the aim, just I have a hard time seeing exactly how the package intends on achieving said goal? Is the money going to be sent to the DOT to hire on out of work Construction Workers? When I see huge newspaper ads asking for workers to help rebuild the George Washinton bridge I will believe there is some kind of New Deal projects in the works.

Besides the nebulous term "crumbling infrastructure", there doesn't seem to be a defined project here or any definition of who will be hired for what. Where is Obama's WPA? Where is his Hoover Dam? WHAT is the project?

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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 17:57:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')
I'm not that into industrious behavior myself. I think most people work too hard, so I encourage everyone to sit around a lot. When we had my husband's niece here to work with us on a large project, we encouraged her to spend the bulk of her workday sitting in the sun reading, taking walks, and working on her own projects.


That's fine, but how do you compensate people for taking walks and sitting in the sun reading? How do you develop a means to equitably distribute out the food resource if people are not working for their daily bread?

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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby Ludi » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 18:08:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')That might be the aim, just I have a hard time seeing exactly how the package intends on achieving said goal? Is the money going to be sent to the DOT to hire on out of work Construction Workers? When I see huge newspaper ads asking for workers to help rebuild the George Washinton bridge I will believe there is some kind of New Deal projects in the works.

Besides the nebulous term "crumbling infrastructure", there doesn't seem to be a defined project here or any definition of who will be hired for what. Where is Obama's WPA? Where is his Hoover Dam? WHAT is the project?

Reverse Engineer



H.R.1

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Amendment in Senate)
Subtitle F--Infrastructure Financing Tools

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/F?c ... 5q:e671475:

The entire bill (not final version) http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/D?c ... 111NCc85q::


I'm afraid all this "bonds" stuff goes over my head, but I'm sure one of our financial guys here on po.com can explain it to us.

Looks like a combo of bonds, grants, tax credits, changes in tax filing on losses, and some other things mostly over my head.
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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby Ludi » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 18:11:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')That's fine, but how do you compensate people for taking walks and sitting in the sun reading? How do you develop a means to equitably distribute out the food resource if people are not working for their daily bread?

Reverse Engineer



I wouldn't expect anyone to work harder than I do. We all ate the same shared food, which we had all worked equally to earn the money to buy. (with the exception that our niece didn't have any financial risk in the endeavor, not being a partner, just a visitor).

Nobody needs to be compensated for leisure time.
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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby Quinny » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 18:18:36

I think we all agree that the current system is FUBAR.

Co-operation is key to future survival never mind success. The gung-ho survivalist metality will not be sustainable no matter how much firepower is deployed.

A couple of ratios from the last couple of days on this board.

25% food waste!
1% of population in agriculture!

If we could just re-direct effort towards important stuff we wouldn't all have to bust a gut all day. (even without cheap fossil fuel).

Having said all that I've just spent a day in my field and I'm absolutely fucking knackered!
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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 18:20:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')I'm afraid all this "bonds" stuff goes over my head, but I'm sure one of our financial guys here on po.com can explain it to us.

Looks like a combo of bonds, grants, tax credits, changes in tax filing on losses, and some other things mostly over my head.


Sounds suspiciously like the same kind of Ponzi Scheme that got us here in the first place. Who is going to buy these bonds? Who is going to issue them? Who is going to take a profit on the transaction? If the Chinese stop buying T-bills, why would they buy Infrastructure Bonds?

I still don't see the definition of what the work will entail or how many people will be hired or how it all will be administered. Its more money even by percentage than the New Deal, but its horrifically unclear and its not just over your head, its over anybody's head because its completely nebulous. Basically money is being shotgunned out to agencies which currently exist in the hopes I guess that the people in charge of these agencies will find something productive to do with the money?

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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 18:25:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') wouldn't expect anyone to work harder than I do. We all ate the same shared food, which we had all worked equally to earn the money to buy. (with the exception that our niece didn't have any financial risk in the endeavor, not being a partner, just a visitor).

Nobody needs to be compensated for leisure time.


This might work fine on your nice subsistence permaculture farm, I am not certain however how you make it work for the millions of people living in big cities right now. What would you have them do, or is it just all leisure time?

Eventually perhaps we work our way back to localism, but how do you manage the transition here? Without the Zombies of course. ;-)

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Re: Rise In Jobless Poses Threat To Stability Worldwide

Postby Ludi » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 18:30:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')
Sounds suspiciously like the same kind of Ponzi Scheme that got us here in the first place.



Yep, it sure is. It's entirely dependent on other countries offering us credit.

Did you read the section about allocation of the "recovery zone" bonds to the states? It looks like it will be up to the states to then allocate the funds to the projects.

I have to admit I have not read much of the bill. Firstly, because I don't really expect it to do much good, and secondly because the final version isn't even available to read yet, that I can find. Apparently, the final version wasn't even available to read until right before the vote. :-x
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