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Montequest: 9.1% decline?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby Revi » Sat 07 Feb 2009, 23:13:43

I agree with you JD. We find that we have more spending money, not less with the changes we've made to our lifestyle. We spend it in our community on things like going out to the movies, eating in restaurants and buying stuff at local shops.

I think that conservation could be a boon to the local economy.

Money spent on oil goes out of the state, and usually out of the country.

I think we would experience an economic stimulus if we spent less money on oil and more on conservation.
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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 08 Feb 2009, 11:31:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')I think we would experience an economic stimulus if we spent less money on oil and more on conservation.


I agree strongly with this as well. Conservation/efficiency is an investment, whereas buying oil is simply an expense/liability.
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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 08 Feb 2009, 13:59:46

Is this a kumbaya moment here at PO forums--long time po-ers agreeing with JD, of all people? the lions sitting down with the lambs?

But really I was about to pitch in on JD's behalf also. There is obviously a huge amount of really stupid waste in the way we do just about everything. This provides a huge opportunity for what Amory Lovins calls nega-watts in the electricity realm.

But as MQ and others remind us if you save money by biking, you are going to spend it on something else that will require burning of oil. On average every dollar spent involves the burning of about a quart of oil somewhere along the line.

And I'm not sure that ending all of that discretionary travel will require no gov action. We still have people at and near the top that are committed to limitless growth.

I actually think that the best selling point for the major kinds of shifts we will need are economic and military security--the more we can supply all of our energy needs domestically, the more secure we will be on both fronts. (I know, "energy independence" is something of a chimera, but a politically useful one, and I think an important idea in principle.)

More Republicans and other conservatives are likely to sign on if it is put in these terms than if it is put purely in terms of GW or PO.

Some of the hard but very necessary sells will be cutting way back by those who use most--the very wealthy and the military.

The very wealthy are not too popular these days as most see them as benefiting from ill-gotten gains, so maybe this will not be so hard. Obamas caps on CEO salaries has been well received in most quarters, as far as I've heard.

If we can pose the military reduction as refocusing on the core task of defending the country rather than projecting US power around the world, maybe it could fly, but I doubt it.

But the combination of cutting out discretionary air and car travel, reducing consumption levels especially at the top, cutting back military, going mostly vegetarian/vegan and local and organic, super insulating buildings, and some alternative energy sources--most of these would leave us healthier and happier while cutting way back on our ff use and our ghg emissions, while making the country much more secure in many ways.

I think we would need a new kind of economic system for this to work, something probably more like the kind of command economy we saw during WWII. We are already moving that direction with nationalization of major banks. And that happened under a Republican pres. With the dems in control, we could move pretty quickly in that direction, perhaps. But generally powerful interests are so entrenched in both parties that it is hard to hope for much sanity coming out of D.C. any time soon.
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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby zeke » Sun 08 Feb 2009, 14:24:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', '
')I think we would need a new kind of economic system for this to work.


the old idea of a capitalist/extractive economy has got to be unlearned as it leads to nowhere good.


a cooperative, restorative way of life is the only one that makes any sense, even if you look at nature as a mechanistic system.

who with a brain drives around with their car low on oil and expects it to keep running?


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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby outcast » Sun 08 Feb 2009, 21:55:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a') cooperative, restorative way of life is the only one that makes any sense, even if you look at nature as a mechanistic system.



We tried something similar, though not exactly like that, it was called communism, and we all know the results.
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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby zeke » Sun 08 Feb 2009, 22:33:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a') cooperative, restorative way of life is the only one that makes any sense, even if you look at nature as a mechanistic system.



We tried something similar, though not exactly like that, it was called communism, and we all know the results.



dude, that tripe is straight out of the 1950s play book and so hackneyed even McCarthy would hork!

we as a species have not actually tried cooperation and rejuvenation as a way of living for at least 5000 years.



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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby Revi » Sun 08 Feb 2009, 22:36:54

I think it can be done easily, but we lack the will to do it so far.

The average American can cut their fossil fuel by half and not even experience any signifigant drop in their standard of living. We did it in our household and we live a lot better now. We have about $3000 extra dollars to spend every year too. That money is spent on movies, going out to eat, farmer's market and other things that benefit the local economy.

http://www.msad54.org/sahs/appliedarts/ ... /index.htm

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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby zeke » Mon 09 Feb 2009, 00:16:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')The average American can cut their fossil fuel by half and not even experience any signifigant drop in their standard of living.



lemme aks you a question...

how far is the average American willing to let his/her "standard of living" drop if it means that the entire biosphere and all of the inhabitants it can support can live fulfilling, peaceful lives?


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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 09 Feb 2009, 00:27:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'C')onservation saves money and that money can be spent elsewhere. For example, the average commute in the US is 16 miles long. Now suppose Joe with a 16 mile commute stops driving and rides a bike instead. It's slightly more inconvenient, but hardly impossible or the end of the world.
Joe used to drive an SUV with 12mpg fuel efficiency, so at $3 gas he was spending $80 a month. Thus he now has $80 more money, per month, than he used to have. And that money can and will be spent on other things.
Indeed, thus negating the conservation.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'H')igh efficiency vehicles and car pooling don't reduce expenditure on anything except oil
Unless the car costs more to produce.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'T')hey get where they wanted to go and buy what they wanted to buy.
So nothing changes and we all live in economic growth nirvana for ever and ever?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')t's true that long distance tourist destinations may suffer
Along with global trade and globalisation. That will require severe adjustments to economies, especially those that have forgotten how to make stuff.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'C')onservation projects create jobsTemporarily. Once conserved, that's it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'C')utting out discretionary driving will have no effect on the economy in most cases. For example, cutting out driving to socialize doesn't hurt anybody except the filling station and OPEC.And those with jobs related to using more oil, road repair, vehicle servicing, associated purchases.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'F')urthermore, cutting out the discretionary travel is just a quick fix for an emergency.Except it wouldn't be a quick fix for the economy as a whole, because of the decreased discretionary spending.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'T')he reality is that the entire vehicle industry is totally focused now on efficiency.You have 100% faith in humans meeting those efficiency challenges and miraculously removing limits to growth.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'E')very major manufacturer will be rolling out ultra-efficient and electric vehicles by 2010.That's 11 months away. What's your definition of "ultra-efficient" and will just programmes be realised in such a short time frame, given the problem with investments, and would people be able to afford to buy them anyway? You seem to have a very good pair of rose coloured glasses.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'Y')es, people are struggling here due to the economic crisis, but it's hardly a catastrophe. Unemployment is 4.4%, and to tell you the truth, if I wasn't reading the news, I wouldn't even be able to detect the difference between last year and this year.Yeah, I hear that over here too. But unemployment is still rising fast and some think we are nowhere near the bottom yet.
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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Mon 09 Feb 2009, 00:44:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', ' ')The reality is that the entire vehicle industry is totally focused now on efficiency. Every major manufacturer will be rolling out ultra-efficient and electric vehicles by 2010. And this process itself is driving explosive growth in a number of new industries such as batteries etc.


JD,

Tell you what, when 2010 rolls around lets revisit this little gem OK? If you are wrong and I'm willing to wager the cost (within reason) of your favorite bottle of whatever that you are completely and utterly delusional.

What say you?

TonyPrep,

Excellent rebuttal and i agree completely with every bullet you posted.

I believe the reality is that no real change takes place until we feel real pain. Most of us here who truly understand PO know what that means.
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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 09 Feb 2009, 00:46:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')The average American can cut their fossil fuel by half and not even experience any signifigant drop in their standard of living.


lemme aks you a question...

how far is the average American willing to let his/her "standard of living" drop if it means that the entire biosphere and all of the inhabitants it can support can live fulfilling, peaceful lives?

zeke


The average american is too bound by tragedy of the commons and too ignorant of limits to growth to do anything but continue blindly keep consuming. It's not really a deliberate choice to kill the planet. They just don't get the big picture and when confronted, would rather not step outside of their existentialism long enough to see it.

When all is said and done I expect a visible minority to volunteer to powerdown, with more converts coming to Jesus very late in the game, but it's unlikely to make or break the end result.
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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 09 Feb 2009, 02:17:24

Average Americans will cut their energy use when energy gets very expensive.

Europeans drive much smaller cars then Americans....is this because they are virtuous and wise? Obviously no....its because gas costs 6-8 bucks more per gallon in Europe then in the US.

If Congress would tax energy in the US and raise gas prices to levels like those in Europe, Americans would suddenly drive small cars like those in Europe and insulate their homes and otherwise change their lifestyles to save energy.
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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 09 Feb 2009, 02:20:08

Average Americans will cut their energy use when energy gets very expensive.

Europeans drive much smaller cars then Americans....is this because they are all virtuous eco-gurus? Obviously no....its because gas costs 6-8 bucks more per gallon in Europe then in the US.

If Congress would tax energy in the US and raise gas prices to levels like those in Europe, Americans would suddenly drive small cars like those in Europe and insulate their homes and otherwise become eco-gurus rushing to change their lifestyles to save energy.
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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 09 Feb 2009, 02:40:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'E')xcellent rebuttal and i agree completely with every bullet you posted.

I believe the reality is that no real change takes place until we feel real pain. Most of us here who truly understand PO know what that means.
Thanks, AP. You're absolutely right, only real pain is likely to push people to change societies fundamentally. Even then, I think it's more likely that people will just want the pain to go away, so, initially, I think the wrong actions will be taken - indeed, that's already happening, to some extent.

JD's beliefs are so ingrained that you will see continuous attempts to rationalise those beliefs; attempts that JD actually does think are good arguments for his beliefs. Unfortunately, he's pretty good at dragging along those who don't apply critical thinking to what he writes. Many, even most, don't want to, of course.
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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 09 Feb 2009, 02:46:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I')f Congress would tax energy in the US and raise gas prices to levels like those in Europe, Americans would suddenly drive small cars
Yeah, except that there is no way it will be sudden. It would take 10 to 15 years to change the fleet, and a lot longer to change it to small very efficient cars. By then, it wouldn't be enough, if oil production has entered geological decline by then, which is quite likely, I think.
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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Mon 09 Feb 2009, 13:39:26

Hey JD,

Here's an article for ya! I cant wait until our first rate auto industry starts building all those highly efficient /Electric powered vehicles. ;)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home


"Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC may have to be forced into
bankruptcy by the U.S. government to assure repayment of $17.4 billion in federal bailout
loans, a course of action the automakers claim would destroy them. "
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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby rangerone314 » Mon 09 Feb 2009, 13:59:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', ' ') Monte, I'm not making any statement. I'm asking you a question, and you didn't really answer it.


I think I already did, at length.

Your figures also assume we peaked this year in all liquids and that demand above 85 mbpd continues.

We don't know any of that for sure. Read what Pops wrote.


I'm not so sure we have actually hit a production peak in 2005 OR 2008. I do, partially based on intuition as much as anything else, don't think we will peak later than 2019...

That is probably not enough time to mitigate, considering Obama wants 1 million hybrid plug-ins by 2015 (out of 250 million)
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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby zeke » Mon 09 Feb 2009, 14:10:21

whether we've peaked or not, isn't it resoundingly clear that continuing a way of life powered by oil is about the stupidest thing we could possibly do?

Just this side of the crazy line of drinking Dran-o straight from the jug chased by lye?


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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 09 Feb 2009, 14:18:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', 'w')hether we've peaked or not, isn't it resoundingly clear that continuing a way of life powered by oil is about the stupidest thing we could possibly do?

Just this side of the crazy line of drinking Dran-o straight from the jug chased by lye?


It was stupid to allow ourselves to be dependent on it for our very survival. Now that we are, though, it would be equally stupid to think we can just go cold turkey overnight, given that it's the main thing propping up our numbers so far above what the planet would normally support.
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Re: Montequest: 9.1% decline?

Unread postby zeke » Mon 09 Feb 2009, 14:28:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I')t was stupid to allow ourselves to be dependent on it for our very survival. Now that we are, though, it would be equally stupid to think we can just go cold turkey overnight, given that it's the main thing propping up our numbers so far above what the planet would normally support.



I can buy into that argument on functional grounds, but I'd also say that we're doing nothing to make a soft landing for ourselves.

it's all about "how can we keep things running as they are, but on some other kind of energy source?"

with no thinking at all to the reality that our current way of life is too expensive in resources to continue it.

so, we either use our big giant brains, and ease off of oil use, or the big giant foot will KICK us off..rudely...suddenly...violently.


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