[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ' ')Ok, my mistake.

That's an "I don't know."

[pedalling_faster]

so, one question for Fatih Birol is, what assumptions regarding infrastructure investment & maintenance are embedded in his 9.1% figure for 2008.

what i hear Matt Simmons saying on top of it is, "we're not investing enough in infrastructure, and i'm very worried about it." i've listened to maybe 5 of his lectures & roundtables. i've never heard him sound so anxious as in the Dec. 13 round-table with Robert Hirsch.

him & Hirsch sound like 2 baseball fans with a total mastery of baseball trivia talking about "the '64 Mets" ... except they're talking about oil. and providing a context for their statements about Fatih Birol's 9.1% estimate.

whether it's 7%, 9%, or 11% decline in 2009, it's show-time.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', ' ') Then why did you tell rangerone314 that oil would decline at 9.1% to 50% in 7.6 years, as I noted in the original post? That seems awfully specific considering that you admit that "no one knows".

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', 'w')hether it's 7%, 9%, or 11% decline in 2009, it's show-time.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', 's')o, one question for Fatih Birol is, what assumptions regarding infrastructure investment & maintenance are embedded in his 9.1% figure for 2008.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', ' ') $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', 'w')hether it's 7%, 9%, or 11% decline in 2009, it's show-time.

[TheDude]

IEA's 9.1% is what you'd get if the hydrocarbon industry were collectively abducted by aliens. I hear this figure misused constantly. Investment in fields won't just suddenly vanish until (if) EVs begin to dominate the auto market, say, and investors collectively lose interest in oil. Of course given how irrational investors are that could happen sooner than we think.

Liquids, yum...



Production should bump up this year - Khurais is due to come online at 600 kb/d, for instance. Surplus projects will outpace decline. Most of the cancellations reported so far have been for projects down the road - tar sands upgraders due in 2014 etc. I've been waiting for someone at TOD to do a roundup of these, and/or an analysis of the status of the companies in question. Things aren't looking up with even Conoco Phillips laying off employees, though, to say nothing of the status of Lukoil, Hugo making nice with the majors, etc.

Infrastructure in the case of rusting platforms won't fall apart en maase any more than every bridge in the US will collapse in sync. Simmons' harping on this point makes me suspect his intentions, that latest Roundtable was pretty funny at times. Renewables can't help - except Simmons Brand Ammonia! It helps to remember that he's an Investment Banker. Those go good with grains of salt. Rockdoc's posts here on Saudi capabilities should be the mandatory followup to reading Twilight in the Desert, too.

Traders are waiting for the bottom to be reached, but whether that will mean renewed capital for E&P this year is too early to call. The contango means they think we'll be heading up soon. Early indicators are demand rebounding a bit thanks to cheap fillups but of course we may be in for the tornado that destroyed our house to suck our car up into the vortex. What I've heard about the destructive potential of the O Bomb isn't very heartening, but going from an irrational economic world to a totally insane one would simply be a quantitative transformation.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I')EA's 9.1% is what you'd get if the hydrocarbon industry were collectively abducted by aliens. I hear this figure misused constantly. Investment in fields won't just suddenly vanish until (if) EVs begin to dominate the auto market, say, and investors collectively lose interest in oil.

[3aidlillahi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ess than 3 years is going to make a difference?

[Ayoob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', ' ') Monte, I'm not making any statement. I'm asking you a question, and you didn't really answer it.

[Serial_Worrier]

Ah gotta love the doomerism in the evening! Don't worry once Israel nukes all the sand niggers to hell, we can come and clean up on all that sweet Arabian crude all for Uh-Merica!

[BlisteredWhippet]

JD is a master debater.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob', '[')........ clipped......
Nobody in their right mind would say that oil production will decline at exactly 9.1%, year after year, on a perfect mathematical curve. There's a lot of wiggle room in that number.

The important thing to take from this discussion is that whatever the decline rate is, you just write it down. This year it's 9.1%, next year it's 2.2%, the year after that it's 22.9%, whatever it is, it is. IF the estimate of 9.1% holds true for the average, THEN we're likely to see the first 50% cut in global oil production in about seven years.

The importance of THAT is that when we lose the first 50%, that's the unkindest cut of all. We lose more up front in the first halving time then we ever will again in a succeeding halving time. If it's another seven years, we only lose half of the REMAINING production, we only lose half of what we lost the first time.

Peak oil will bitchslap you the hardest right at the beginning.

Why are you still here? Why don't you go and find a way to make yourself useful after the first halving time somehow? You're wasting your time.

[zeke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Like I have beens saying for years, peak oil is about economics. Long before the actual peak, our system will grind to a halt. Are we there? We will know soon.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', '
')Nobody will "spend" 2 barrels of oil so that they can get 1 barrel of oil.

zc

[zeke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', '
')Nobody will "spend" 2 barrels of oil so that they can get 1 barrel of oil.

zc

[Bman4k1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', ' ') [
while I can agree that there are "minds" among the military who sprout wood at that idea, I'd say that they'd spend a lot of energy managing that slave labor and the surrounding non-enslaved population to ensure that the enslaved population would operate hand pumps, or whatever tech might be used to get oil, plus the food required to feed the slaves to the level THEY'D require, physiologically, to operate the extraction equipment.

and once again, it comes right back to EROI.

how much grain would the slaves consume? How much energy to grow the grain? Harvest it? cook it? one thing for sure: you don't feed the human slave, you will NOT get much out of it, no matter how much whipping or tasering you do.


Yeah, they could use coal to extract the oil, but the resulting pollution would make that stop relatively quickly.

I suppose that gas masks could be made to protect the population from the poison air, but, once again: EROI


zeke

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', '
')Nobody will "spend" 2 barrels of oil so that they can get 1 barrel of oil.

zc

[zeke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')You missed (or iqnored) my point.
No amount of coal or slave labor can make an F16 fly but a load of jet fuel can. The military could care less about the pollution caused by extracting its jet fuel. All they care about is winning battles and projecting power. Slaves don't project power or win wars. F 16s do. They would only care about EROEI if both sides of the equation where oil. Any other non oil source of energy on the input side would be considerd worth it with out any regard to how much.

[vtsnowedin]

Have it your way but I'm betting that the last working oil wells in the world will be run by the military using coal or some renewable energy source to generate the electricity needed to run the pumps and hydraulic equipment. And there won't be a meter on the generator because they won't care how much it takes as long as they can fill up their tanks and planes more times then the enemy can.