[Electric_Economy_2025]

MQ,
I think you hit the nail on the head with your slow decline theory, I would like to know what you think about these thoughts.
Do you think/believe it is possible to have everything happening at the sametime?
Meaning can we see a world where the rich change to new technologies to keep their way of live the same or better and at the sametime the rest of the world changing back to a simpler way a life with less energy use.
I think the fact that the world is so connected now that we will see all scenarios, I do believe there is be a slow dieoff in all countries some being hit more then others.
I see America and all first world countires becoming like third world countries, where the mass of the people live poor to stay alive and to make life eazy for the rich, in the end I believe people will become the new source of cheap energy until the rich use technology to free the world of work by human hands.
I think the only way this won't happen is if we blow up the world and lose all connection to technology.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Electric_Economy_2025', ' ')the people live poor to stay alive and to make life eazy for the rich,

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Electric_Economy_2025', 'M')Q,
I think you hit the nail on the head with your slow decline theory, I would like to know what you think about these thoughts.
Do you think/believe it is possible to have everything happening at the sametime?
Meaning can we see a world where the rich change to new technologies to keep their way of live the same or better and at the sametime the rest of the world changing back to a simpler way a life with less energy use.

[sparky]

.

I'm basically in Montequest corner ,
one proviso though ,
price of essential commodities , such as food and energy do not have to rise as such ,

......If a whole population is pauperised

then one must consider not the nominal price but the amount of time one has to work to fill his/her stomach or the gas tank

The first law of ecology is it is the least abundant nescessity which determine the system , this could be real employment


Has anyone any idea how long one had to work to buy one gallon of gas on median earning in the 50ies 80ies and today ?

just thinking on my feet , I'll dig this now

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[sparky]

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Didn't even have raise a sweat , this is a first pass , but can be used as a pissing post ,
taxes and grades are a virtually unsoluble problems , so I didn't try , always go for the rawest data


hourly rate average earning of production workers
reference month is october ( last good numbers for 2008 )

1965 2.66 $ ....0.32$ /Gl can buy 8.31 Gl
1975 4.81 $ .....0.52$/Gl ,, 9.25 Gl
1985 8.79 $ ......1.12$/Gl ,, 7.84 Gl
1995 11.76$.......1.23$/Gl ,, 9.56 Gl
2005 16.30$.......2.17$/Gl ,, 7.51 Gl
2008 18.23$ ..... 2.50$/Gl ,, 7.30 Gl
at 3.00$/gl it would have been ,, 6.07 Gl

2008 was very averaged this was a crazy year ,
no decent number come out,too many variations but the price includ the last two months of the years eldse it would be much worst

hourly rate is from the bureau of labor statistics
gasoline price from the EIA and wiki

It would make the best driving year 1995 and around
while 2005 and after are worst than the mid 1960ies


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[Revi]

I think 2008 would have an average gas price closer to $3. It started the year at around 3 and went up to way over $4 around here.

I agree with the idea that it doesn't matter what the price is if you have no job and no money to buy it with. I think that will be how it works out.

People who made enough to afford a car and keep a house heated aren't going to be able to do that any more.

The price will go up and down, but the number of people consuming lots of fossil fuels will go down. No job, no commute.

Eventually it will be like the third world, where there are people who have cars, but they are the very rich. Everyone else is walking.

[sparky]

.

We always assumed the peak would be a plumbing problem ,with a geometric price rise .
We well might have a peak through lack of consumtion ,

This financial crisis is morphing into an economic crisis ,
the political response of course will be bigger government
it could lead to a public finance crisis

just around the corner a set of bad harvest ,
IE more income spend on food
for a rich country it is now ~ 15% of income
for a poor country it is ~ 60% of income

increase this by half

the poor countries see increase in malnutrition
the rich coutries an increase in food prices
in both , less income is available for housing ,clothing , taxes and discretionnary spending

The slow decline would of course not be even , either geographically ( during the great depression Kansas city was booming )
or across a society,some repair tech jobs might be in demand
there would be time of temporary improvements

That's the down the stairs scenario


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