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The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 15 Dec 2008, 23:50:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')So not just one, but two of the problems you cited are now correcting themselves.


Correcting themselves? A little too late, don't you think? :roll:
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 15 Dec 2008, 23:54:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')nd I stick with my assumption:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s the US baby boomers retire, they will further depress the savings rate as they draw down their savings in an effort to make up the difference between the salaries they earned on the job and their smaller Social Security payments.


With a little addition:

As the US baby boomers retire, they will further depress the savings rate as they draw down their savings in an effort to make up the difference between the salaries they earned on the job and their smaller Social Security payments, their job loss at Walmart, their losses in the stock market, and the implosion of their real estate reverse mortage equity.

Wow, I can't believe you actually claimed this after you had already said baby boomers were deferring retirement! If baby boomers, as you admitted, are deferring retirement in increasing numbers, there will be no need for them to deplete their savings and draw on Social Security, and thus, the problem you cited will not exist!

*sigh*
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 15 Dec 2008, 23:54:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')The savings rate is now going up.


So, in one or two quarters time, people suddenly have rebound ability? For what? Two quarters of bad times? We are in for years of hard times.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 15 Dec 2008, 23:56:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')So not just one, but two of the problems you cited are now correcting themselves.


Correcting themselves? A little too late, don't you think? :roll:

How do you know it's "too late?" What if it's "just in time?" How could you tell it was "too late" anyway?
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 15 Dec 2008, 23:59:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')The savings rate is now going up.


So, in one or two quarters time, people suddenly have rebound ability?

It appears that's the case, isn't it - as the chart you yourself linked shows:
Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'F')or what? Two quarters of bad times? We are in for years of hard times.

Then they will compensate and save for years.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 00:01:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')If baby boomers, as you admitted, are deferring retirement in increasing numbers, there will be no need for them to deplete their savings and draw on Social Security, and thus, the problem you cited will not exist!

On the contrary, not only will they be competing for jobs, but they will also be drawing down savings along with Social Security. As a building contractor, I am embroiled in the foreclosure fiasco. Many of the foreclosed homes are in disrepair. I get to know the realtors and owners and talk to them about the situations.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 00:08:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ') $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')o, in one or two quarters time, people suddenly have rebound ability?
It appears that's the case, isn't it - as the chart you yourself linked shows:

Saving 1 to 2% of your disposal income for a couple of months is rebound ability for a couple of days.

Seems you just wish to exhibit troll tactics and are looking for a fight.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 00:09:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'H')ow do you know it's "too late?" What if it's "just in time?" How could you tell it was "too late" anyway?

The storms here isn't it?
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 00:11:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')If baby boomers, as you admitted, are deferring retirement in increasing numbers, there will be no need for them to deplete their savings and draw on Social Security, and thus, the problem you cited will not exist!
On the contrary, not only will they be competing for jobs, but they will also be drawing down savings along with Social Security. As a building contractor, I am embroiled in the foreclosure fiasco. Many of the foreclosed homes are in disrepair. I get to know the realtors and owners and talk to them about the situations.

*sigh*

In your other thread, the very first sentence you said was:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')any senior citizens, who thought they were set for life just six months ago, now face the prospect of going back to work, perhaps until they no longer can.

If, as you said, they are going back to work (or staying in jobs they already have and not retiring), this means they will not be "retired" anymore, and will not be collecting social security anymore.

So you've now said that they will both be working (going out of or deferring retirement) . . . and not working. Which is it? If they are deferring/leaving retirement, they will be working and not collecting social security and not drawing down their savings. But if there are no jobs for them, they can't go back to work and will probably have to do retirement on-the-cheap. But even if the latter case is the predominant trend, then you can't say that they will be deferring retirement, because they aren't.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 00:13:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'H')ow do you know it's "too late?" What if it's "just in time?" How could you tell it was "too late" anyway?
The storms here isn't it?

If the storm has arrived there might still be enough time to head to the nearest building to seek shelter before you get too wet.

*anticipates lengthy exchange regarding cute metaphors*
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 00:14:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ') $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')o, in one or two quarters time, people suddenly have rebound ability?
It appears that's the case, isn't it - as the chart you yourself linked shows:
Saving 1 to 2% of your disposal income for a couple of months is rebound ability for a couple of days. Seems you just wish to exhibit troll tactics and are looking for a fight.

That chart didn't show a "couple months," it showed a couple quarters.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 00:15:39

Get someone else to play your game.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 01:18:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'G')et someone else to play your game.


Off topic post deleted by eastbay
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 11:17:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'G')et someone else to play your game.


Ah, the first fight with Monte since his return. Some things never change.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby Revi » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 13:09:52

I think it's any port in a storm. We are going to have big problems in the new year when all those mortgages roll over, 2 million less people working and more layoffs coming.

I agree with Monte. The storm has begun.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 16:07:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')So not just one, but two of the problems you cited are now correcting themselves.

Correcting themselves? A little too late, don't you think? :roll:
Better to have the correction start now then to try and defer it into the future when it will be even more painful.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby Revi » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 20:44:38

The correction this time is going to be really nasty. It's too bad we didn't let the 2002 recession happen. We wouldn't be in the place we're in now. There is a lot of pain that has to happen before we get to the bottom of this one. I heard that real estate prices may continue to go down for four more years! It looks like deflation may continue for another year or two, followed by inflation that eats away at the baby boom's savings again.

It's an ugly picture.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 21:35:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') Better to have the correction start now then to try and defer it into the future when it will be even more painful.


The future is just around the corner. Saving a few fiat money dollars now is not going to help, especially if they become worthless. Remember, they are only really green paper with no value.

Besides, do the math. The average disposable income is about $28,000. $28000/12 =$2333.00 X 1.5% savings rate = $34.99 a month.

$35 bucks is rebound ability?
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 00:32:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he future is just around the corner.

True. Lets consider....you started posting the Doom of modern man some 4, 4-1/2 years ago? The future was just around the corner then as well.

And we got what? Peak oil happened, maybe twice depending on who's numbers you believe, a lending boom followed by a credit crisis, and then the expected demand destruction which happened so fast and hard that it outran OPECs ability to shut off the taps.

Canary in the coal mine such as airlines? Still flying even as we passed THROUGH non-cheap oil and out the other side. NASCAR? Still racing. Las Vegas? I was there a month ago....drank some water to make sure they still had some. Yup. They did.

So...how many MORE futures just around the corner do you think we need to wait before we get more than a well deserved recession?
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 00:48:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')So...how many MORE futures just around the corner do you think we need to wait before we get more than a well deserved recession?

I don't recall ever saying my projections were "just around the corner"...just coming...depended upon the rate and magnitude.

We are getting more than a well deserved recession as I speak...and a depression without end from here on out, with perhaps a head fake or two thrown in.
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