[patience]

topcat, yes, that is an option. She could borrow up to half of the current value of the account. Not sure if we'd want to do that, since I don't know all the possibilities there. We are waiting and watching the Treasury market and interest rates. With Fannie and Freddy bonds going up, like shortonoil said, the future does not bode well for T's. Our best shot is to wait until January 1, 2009, and dump it all out, or according to our accountant, take part this year, and part next year to stay in a lower tax bracket.

[Hawkcreek]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ur Common Sense has become so short in supply that we have begun to believe that risk can be removed from our lives.

[Cid_Yama]

Hundreds of hedge funds will fail and policy makers may need to shut financial markets for a week or more as the crisis forces investors to dump assets, New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said.

"We've reached a situation of sheer panic," Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis in 2006, told a conference of hedge-fund managers in London today. "There will be massive dumping of assets" and "hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust," he said.

"Systemic risk has become bigger and bigger," Roubini said at the Hedge 2008 conference. "We're seeing the beginning of a run on a big chunk of the hedge funds," and "don't be surprised if policy makers need to close down markets for a week or two in coming days," he said.
link

[eastbay]

This article is two weeks old.

I'm not sure what you're getting at here Cid?

[Cid_Yama]

<b>Hedge fund results seen going from bad to worse</b>

As brutal as September was for hedge funds, October was even worse.

Hedge fund industry trackers Barclay Hedge, Hedge Fund Research and Hennessee Group <b>will report over the next few days</b> just how poorly the $1.9 trillion industry performed last month. It was a period of plunging stock prices, frozen debt markets and fire-sales by banks scrambling to boost cash.

"You had one of the worst months in the equity markets that you had in decades. You add to that the ban on short selling, which destroyed convertible arbitrage, and the equity strategies were hurt badly," said Sol Waksman, founder of industry tracking service Barclay Hedge.

Some of the most successful names in the industry were hammered last month, as funds lost more money than they did in a September that featured the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, the near collapse of American International Group (AIG.N), and one of the steepest stock market drops ever.

"I would expect that redemptions by historical standards are quite high. Not a day goes by where we don't see that such and such a fund is putting up gates," said Barclay's Waksman.
link

<b>Hedge Fund Liquidations: Five Things You Need to Know</b>

<i>And when many hedge funds liquidate simultaneously, we have a rush to exit the markets as if there were a fire in a movie theater.</i>

In order to "front-run" the need to liquidate, some hedge funds will sell index futures in order to hedge or anticipate the required liquidation.

Futures -- especially if sold before the market opens -- can set the markets up for a nasty fall. This has the effect of yelling fire in a crowded movie theater and in investment terms, panic selling may ensue. Once futures are sold off in this dramatic fashion, traditional indexed funds are forced to sell stocks in order to adjust their holdings to the perceived discount to fair value. A self perpetuating sell-off develops and markets rapidly head lower.
link

<i>Most hedge fund redemption requests have to be in by Nov 15th. From then til the end of the year, hedge funds will be liquidating to cover redemptions. The hedge fund conference Roubini was speaking at was a couple weeks ago, but he was talking about now til the end of the year. And you know they will all be trying to get out of the exit first.</i>

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', '&')lt;i>Most hedge fund redemption requests have to be in by Nov 15th. From then til the end of the year, hedge funds will be liquidating to cover redemptions. The hedge fund conference Roubini was speaking at was a couple weeks ago, but he was talking about now til the end of the year. And you know they will all be trying to get out of the exit first.</i>

[Cid_Yama]

What you will see is days where futures are significantly down, a large sell-off, the Treasury stepping in and driving it up to +200 then steep plunging again. This is where the hundreds of Billions is going. Assisting the hedge funds to liquidate without bringing on Armageddon.

We've already seen some of this. We will see a lot more.

Frankly, it's all futile. Nothing can stop the Grand Reconciliation.

[EnergyUnlimited]

I am waiting for that to proceed.
It will be very interesting and exciting to observe.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', ' ')This is where the hundreds of Billions is going. Assisting the hedge funds to liquidate without bringing on Armageddon.

[Cid_Yama]

They need cash to make disbursements on 12/31 to those making redemption requests.

In other words, everyone wants to get their money out before they lose anymore, so everyone is making redemption requests now to get their money 12/31.

The hedge funds need cash to cover those disbursements, unfortunately, they are heavily leveraged and being wiped out by everyone wanting to take their money out.

It's just like a bank run.

So as the hedge funds sell equities(and index futures) to acquire the necessary cash, the Treasury is buying equities(and index futures) to cover the other side of the equation to keep the markets from crashing.

[patience]

Props, and more props for a system that won't admit that it is a dead man walking.

How long before it all comes apart? Check kiting schemes don't last very long. What is the trigger event?

edit to add: Dow futures at 8450, down 324 at the monent. Nikkei and Australia down also. Baltic Dry Index down 10 at 829. The whole works reminds me of the dead ground hog that the neighbor boy propped up on a stick to trick his uncle into shooting at it. After 4 or 5 shots, he had to go look to figure it out.

[Cid_Yama]

<i>What is the trigger event?</i>

I think this is it. Hedge funds have been gushing blood like they have severed arteries. Everyone that didn't get out last quarter, wish they had and just want to save what they have left. The losses have been staggering the last couple months.

The investors just want out, and if they don't get out now, they can't have their money until the end of March 2009. <b>IF</b> their hedge fund still exists by then.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', '&')lt;i>What is the trigger event?</i>

I think this is it. Hedge funds have been gushing blood like they have severed arteries. Everyone that didn't get out last quarter, wish they had and just want to save what they have left. The losses have been staggering the last couple months.

The investors just want out, and if they don't get out now, they can't have their money until the end of March 2009. <b>IF</b> their hedge fund still exists by then.

[strider3700]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', '&')lt;i>What is the trigger event?</i>

I think this is it. Hedge funds have been gushing blood like they have severed arteries. Everyone that didn't get out last quarter, wish they had and just want to save what they have left. The losses have been staggering the last couple months.

The investors just want out, and if they don't get out now, they can't have their money until the end of March 2009. <b>IF</b> their hedge fund still exists by then.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', '
')
The investors have to be sitting on cash that is stuffed away somewhere. Gold and silver obviously aren't through the roof due to a massive flight to safety and as you pointed out the markets are not the place either. Euro's are way down in value versus the US dollar so that's probably not the current choice either. Perhaps they are sinking it into real estate that is actually undervalued?

My money would be on it being in some very safe banks that aren't paying crap for interest and aren't exposed to the current market meltdown. Most likely these banks are foreign in nature.

[pedalling_faster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'B')ut even if they don't get trampled on the way out the door, just where will they GO with the money?

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'B')ut even if they don't get trampled on the way out the door, just where will they GO with the money?

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'B')ut even if they don't get trampled on the way out the door, just where will they GO with the money?

[Cid_Yama]

Actually, just like the average American, the wealthy are in debt, only more so. Those living off investments have had their income curtailed. So a lot of what ever they are able to save of their investment will be going to maintain living standards and paying down debt just like everyone else.

<b>Pawnshops pocket Picassos, Porsches and platinum as Beverly Hills feels pinch</b>

The worse the economy gets, the better it is for Jordan Tabach-Bank. "Business is booming," says the chief executive of Beverly Loan in Beverly Hills, California.

Beverly Loan is a pawnshop. Not just any pawnshop, but the kind that caters to people who hock Cartier watches, Harley-Davidson motorbikes and Oscar statuettes when they need cash. They really need it now, Tabach-Bank says from his third-floor office off his showroom near Rodeo Drive.

"I've never seen so many bankers, lawyers, doctors and actors" with valuable things to pawn, he says. He points to an 18 carat white gold bracelet with 69 diamonds worth $2 900 (R28 700) and an 18 carat yellow gold Rolex Yachtmaster II - "a steal" at $18 500.

Credit is drying up at regular lenders. "In many cases now, we're not just the bank of last resort," Tabach-Bank says. "We're the bank of only resort."

At Tabach-Bank's shop, "confidential collateral loans", as they're called, have been made on art works by Pablo Picasso, Andy Warhol and Jean-Michel Basquiat. Sums loaned range from several thousand dollars to "six- and seven-figure deals", he says.

South Beverly Jewellery and Loan, also in Beverly Hills, has seen business triple in the past six months, says owner Yossi Dina. Some of the collateral is in a parking lot: there are about 60 cars, including Ferraris, Porsches and a Bentley.

Tabach-Bank says clients have needed to pay for mortgages, alimony, gambling debts and "tummy tucks and face lifts".

link

[Sys1]

Cid_Yama : Wow! Even the super richs are hurt by the crisis...