by lowem » Mon 03 Nov 2008, 11:51:19
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'A')t what point did you become less moderate. Any specific day or event?
Well, to be sure it wasn't just a specific day or event, or even during the recent turmoil in the financial markets.
I had been noticing all through the first part of this year (2008) that some of these events have been accelerating faster than earlier expected, such as the Cantarell decline rate, food shortages, the rice scare, and so on.
Other things I can't quite put a finger on it, but the people around me seemed to be acting edgier than normal, motorists have been acting positively crazy on the roads, and every day it seemed to be getting worse. Some kind of social, pre-warning aspect to it perhaps. Headless chickens careening around.
Add to that what I have been observing, that supermarket shelves didn't seem to be as full as before, I mean the inventory is still there, but instead of say fully-packed shelves, I would notice that only the front half is filled and the rear half is empty. Things like the bags of rice in the supermarkets which used to be stacked to waist level are now only at ankle level.
Small things like, overhearing people's conversations about ordering certain things or parts, components, and hearing that they have been put on hold, stocks were out, and they had to wait.
Mind you all these were quite a few months before this "credit crisis" froze the system even more completely, so it's not like Aug-Oct 2008 happened out of the blue. There seemed to be signs along the way.
And now with the latest small bounces in the markets, people are becoming a little hopeful again. The contrarian in me screams otherwise. I'd suppose we haven't seen anything yet.