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The Spreading Global Food Crisis Thread pt 2 (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Fighting over food at local Tesco's

Postby ypct_george » Mon 20 Oct 2008, 05:33:11

"calling all security to the meat section!!" -- that's a good one:) adding to my how-could-things-look-like-when-shft library.
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Re: Fighting over food at local Tesco's

Postby Loki » Mon 20 Oct 2008, 11:26:12

Is Tesco's a budget supermarket?

The worst market experience I've had was at Trader Joe's, a "health food" supermarket (not super high end, but definitely higher than Safeway). They had a tiny store that was constantly crowded, women with kids in the carts shoving their way through the aisles so they could get their boxed meals and plastic wrapped cucumbers. I hated that store. They've since moved to a bigger store and it's much more pleasant.
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Re: Fighting over food at local Tesco's

Postby Quinny » Mon 20 Oct 2008, 14:57:11

It's mainstream - some loss leaders, and pretty keen price wise. I assumed everybody would know of them as they've probably been the most successful retailer over the last few years. They've really dominated the out of town superstores in the UK and are moving in on town centres.

Interestingly one of the major 'improvements' to their store is an improved bus stop to allow more bus passengers to get there.
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Re: Fighting over food at local Tesco's

Postby PrairieMule » Mon 20 Oct 2008, 20:40:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I')t's mainstream - some loss leaders, and pretty keen price wise. I assumed everybody would know of them as they've probably been the most successful retailer over the last few years. They've really dominated the out of town superstores in the UK and are moving in on town centres.

Interestingly one of the major 'improvements' to their store is an improved bus stop to allow more bus passengers to get there.


I have been to the Tesco Lotus in Thailand. I'd describe it as a 2 story Wal-Mart super center if it were a anchor on a mall. Are the ones in the UK like that?

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Re: Fighting over food at local Tesco's

Postby Quinny » Tue 21 Oct 2008, 01:49:44

The main ones are large out of town superstores that sell literally everything. They've destroyed a lot of the retail trade in the UK, wiping out small shops. I can sometimes buy IT equipment there, cheaper than from our IT distributors (try to avoid it though). They've moved in quickly with forecourt and town centre stores though.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I')t's mainstream - some loss leaders, and pretty keen price wise. I assumed everybody would know of them as they've probably been the most successful retailer over the last few years. They've really dominated the out of town superstores in the UK and are moving in on town centres.

Interestingly one of the major 'improvements' to their store is an improved bus stop to allow more bus passengers to get there.


I have been to the Tesco Lotus in Thailand. I'd describe it as a 2 story Wal-Mart super center if it were a anchor on a mall. Are the ones in the UK like that?

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Re: Fighting over food at local Tesco's

Postby kam3Oen » Tue 21 Oct 2008, 05:35:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have been to the Tesco Lotus in Thailand. I'd describe it as a 2 story Wal-Mart super center if it were a anchor on a mall. Are the ones in the UK like that?


When I was in the UK I went to 2 different tescos (one in Huntingdon and the other in Cambridge). They are basically just like the supermarkets in the US (in that they basically only sell food). I also went to one in Koh Samui, Thailand, which was more like a Wal-Mart supercenter, with clothing, toys, car batteries, etc.
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Re: Fighting over food at local Tesco's

Postby Quinny » Tue 21 Oct 2008, 05:41:53

You must have been to the smaller ones, most of them are more like Wal-Marts.[

quote="kam3Oen"]$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have been to the Tesco Lotus in Thailand. I'd describe it as a 2 story Wal-Mart super center if it were a anchor on a mall. Are the ones in the UK like that?


When I was in the UK I went to 2 different tescos (one in Huntingdon and the other in Cambridge). They are basically just like the supermarkets in the US (in that they basically only sell food). I also went to one in Koh Samui, Thailand, which was more like a Wal-Mart supercenter, with clothing, toys, car batteries, etc.[/quote]
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Re: The Spreading World Food Crisis (2)

Postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 06:39:24

bloomberg

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The credit crunch is compounding a profit squeeze for farmers that may curb global harvests and worsen a food crisis for developing countries.

Global production of wheat, the most-consumed food crop, may drop 4.4 percent next year, said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co. in Chicago, who has advised farmers, food companies and investors for 29 years. Harvests of corn and soybeans also are likely to fall, Basse said.

Smaller crops risk reviving prices of farm commodities that sank from records in 2008 after a six-year rally that spurred inflation and sparked riots from Asia to the Caribbean. Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show wheat will jump 16 percent by the end of 2009, corn will rise 15 percent and soybeans will gain 3 percent.

``The credit situation is worrying even the biggest and best farmers,'' said Brian Willot, 36, a former University of Missouri commodity analyst who now grows soybeans on 2,000 acres in Brazil. ``For the financially weak, credit has dried up completely. For the strong, credit has been delayed and interest rates are higher.''
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Farm Credit Squeeze Will Mean Less Food Next Year/Bloomberg

Postby deMolay » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 13:07:04

"We Are All Travellers, From The Sweet Grass To The Packing House, From Birth To Death, We Wander Between The Two Eternities". An Old Cowboy.
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Re: Farm Credit Squeeze Will Mean Less Food Next Year/Bloomb

Postby mrbig » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 13:19:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'h')ttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aox4ZwDlWkvQ&refer=home


Disturbing developments we are seeing. Add to this a bad season and we are in for a world of sht.
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Re: Farm Credit Squeeze Will Mean Less Food Next Year/Bloomb

Postby notill » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 17:09:06

This article in no way overstates what the fallout from the financial crises could mean to food production. The fall in commodity prices may have a larger effect than the credit crises as no one wants to invest in a losing venture. I see almost all crops grown in my area (Oregon) now selling for less than the cost of production.
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Re: Farm Credit Squeeze Will Mean Less Food Next Year/Bloomb

Postby Gorm » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 17:19:19

This migth be a great problem in the near future. However, it shouldnt have to be one if the leadership was potent. Or, are they setting the stage for a "strong leader" to gain support from the near starving, frigthend, broken masses?
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Disintegration of the Industrial Food Supply Apparatus

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 02 Nov 2008, 10:56:29

It appears the pressures of overshoot to produce more food quicker are taking their toll on the world's food supply by making it progressively more unsafe to eat. Of course NOT eating isn't very safe either, but the number of stories relating to poisoned or tainted food are ever increasing. China seems to be in the forefront of this problem.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/02/news/china.php

Its been made pretty clear that in their rush to industrialization, the Chinese have played fast and loose with environmental considerations. Now of course heads are rolling in the Chinese Bureaucracy as tons of food has to be destroyed due to melanine contamination.

The Chinese of course are not the only ones who have had food contamination problems lately, the Tomato problem hit Mexico very hard, even though it was never entirely clear the problem stemmed from Mexico or even tomatoes.

Clearly the food production apparatus has been stretched past the breaking point, particularly in China. The economy there grew at a breakneck pace over the last decade, along with the population, but the concept that China is poised to dominate the world with the fall of the US and that their economy will continue its growth while ours disintegrates is clearly absurd. The Chinese will suffer the effects of Peak Oil and resource depletion more than anyone else, by simple virtue of the fact they have so many more mouths to feed.

Prices of all commodities, gas and food included are now depressed to rock bottom prices in the deflationary spiral here in the US, but as we work our way into next year's growing season and the current inventories of grain and processed foods are drawn down, eventually here we have to face shortages and rising prices. How high a price for food can unemployed people really afford anyhow? Gas may be semi-optional, you can substitute a bike or carpool a lot, but you can't substitute for food and you can't pool it either. You can go out to Fast Food restaurants less and buy cheaper bulk foods as long as they are available, but the pressures on the supply will continue increasing here.

Obviously, those here on Peak Oil with their own subsistence farms are the best positioned to maintain a renewable source of safe to eat food for a while. However, what do you do when you have enough to eat but those around you are starving? Point rifles out your farmhouse window and yell "Go Away! Go AWAY!"? Eventually the numbers overwhelm you, so its not a very good solution to the problem.

Food production and distribution will at some point have to be collectivized, but how this will be done remains an open question. Pretty clearly though, the proximal cause of die off here is going to be a lack of food worldwide. The pooreset countries in the world with the least arable farmland will be the ones to suffer this problem first and hardest, as they are already doing. How long it takes to hit here at home in the USA remains to be seen as well, the production apparatus is still there and enough oil is still there, but the economics are falling apart. Until its accepted that the monetary system cannot work to run the businesses and run the trucks and provide the jobs so people can afford to buy the food and some other system is placed in to make that happen, we will have a real problem. Will there be sufficient political courage in Congress and in the next president to do what is necessary to insure that Americans get enough food to eat, at least for a while? Or will we just fight it out on the Doomsteads, trying to hold on to our last crop of potatoes?

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Re: Disintegration of the Industrial Food Supply Apparatus

Postby RapaNui » Sun 02 Nov 2008, 12:44:38

zombies will not organize. Zombies will not radialize. Zombies will move toward the cities, not away. The cities are viewed as the LIGHT. the light will draw them like moths. Rural is safer. Very rural is very safer. Deep rural is even safer - many shotguns between the city and the deep rural - blam blam go the guns. Drop drop goes the zombs. Real threat is Obama. That is, McCane. That is, the financiers. That is, the powers that be (noob alert - TPTB).
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Re: Disintegration of the Industrial Food Supply Apparatus

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 02 Nov 2008, 12:53:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RapaNui', 'z')ombies will not organize. Zombies will not radialize. Zombies will move toward the cities, not away. The cities are viewed as the LIGHT. the light will draw them like moths. Rural is safer. Very rural is very safer. Deep rural is even safer - many shotguns between the city and the deep rural - blam blam go the guns. Drop drop goes the zombs. Real threat is Obama. That is, McCane. That is, the financiers. That is, the powers that be (noob alert - TPTB).

Pakistan is about all rural. They aren't doing too well over there.

Really isolated places might make it thru, but I wouldn't want to be on a subsistence farm in TX or in OH. Hopefully you are in a small valley somewhere protected by Mountains. Really BIG mountains. The Great Wall that God Built.
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Re: Disintegration of the Industrial Food Supply Apparatus

Postby RapaNui » Sun 02 Nov 2008, 13:39:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RapaNui', 'z')ombies will not organize. Zombies will not radialize. Zombies will move toward the cities, not away. The cities are viewed as the LIGHT. the light will draw them like moths. Rural is safer. Very rural is very safer. Deep rural is even safer - many shotguns between the city and the deep rural - blam blam go the guns. Drop drop goes the zombs. Real threat is Obama. That is, McCane. That is, the financiers. That is, the powers that be (noob alert - TPTB).
Pakistan is about all rural. They aren't doing too well over there.

What is, pray tell, "too well?" Hmmm?
180 peeps in paki- only 1/5th arable land.
.24 arable acres per person.
We have a problem. Big problem.
I'm not in Pakistan. I'm here. No worries here. Many arable acres for meeze and miinze, and zombies have too many things between there and here to occupy their time.
Who knows. Who knows. Maybe, maybe not.
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Re: Disintegration of the Industrial Food Supply Apparatus

Postby mrobert » Sun 02 Nov 2008, 17:37:59

People people people ...

We have been through this subject countless times. Can't we agree once and for all?

"Zombies" won't come to your farm by the thousands to take your food. Let me give you some SOLID arguments. Any group of "zombies" (by which I mean people who just demand and are willing to kill anyone to get their free food), will NOT do the following:

- start thinking that in some village, in some house there is food. Why travel miles for something that has 1% chance of being there?

- people who are able to organize and do such things ... well, they don't do such things. They already figured out their own solutions.

Do you reasonably think if TSHTF, going around exploring villages and attacking houses, is something very convenient?

Do yourself a favour and walk on bare foot to the nearest village you can find on a map. At the end of the trip, you will get it why it's not such a good idea.
Try not eating something before, not wearing some comfortable shoes and clothes ... by the time you will make, even a 16 year old girl will beat you to death :)
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Re: Disintegration of the Industrial Food Supply Apparatus

Postby Fishman » Sun 02 Nov 2008, 17:48:08

"Food production and distribution will at some point have to be collectivized," has always been a disaster. Please give some data that this is a reasonable plan. Of course its a great emotional plan but not logical (sort of like voting for Obama)
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Re: Disintegration of the Industrial Food Supply Apparatus

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 02 Nov 2008, 18:06:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fishman', '"')Food production and distribution will at some point have to be collectivized," has always been a disaster. Please give some data that this is a reasonable plan. Of course its a great emotional plan but not logical (sort of like voting for Obama)

Of course it is a disaster, because you would only undertake such a thing in a situation of resource depletion as a means to manage the crisis. Its a disaster alright, just if you don't do it its an even BIGGER disaster.

Your best examples here would of course be Russia and China, which collectivized in the early part of the century because they were suffering massive losses. Russians were ejected from the land in the Pogroms, Chinese were sent to work on the railroads first in the US, it was an escape valve for a while to get rid of excess population this way. The US was for all intents and purposes empty. No such empty place exists anymore of course, the numbers are now inflated on the back of the thermodynamic energy of oil now become scarce enough that its pricing itself out of existence to even drill for anymore.

So the US inevitably goes down the same path that befell China and Russia when their lands no longer could support their populations, as a means to control the disaster. If you are in a coal mine that suffers a collapse, would it be a better idea to try to save yourself at the expense of the others trapped with you, or to try to work together to dig your way out? If the collapse was bad enough, either way you are probably dead, but if there is SOME ray of sunshine poking through, you are way better off to work together to dig for it.

In any event, its not a choice you want to make, but at this point its the only choice left. Either that or shoot each other out on the streets fighting over the last morsels of food.

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Re: Disintegration of the Industrial Food Supply Apparatus

Postby Lanthanide » Sun 02 Nov 2008, 20:00:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', '-') start thinking that in some village, in some house there is food. Why travel miles for something that has 1% chance of being there?

Because they have no other alternative? If you know that where you are, there is 0% chance of being food, but if you walk 10 miles that way there is 1% chance of there being food, what do you think you'll do?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '-') people who are able to organize and do such things ... well, they don't do such things. They already figured out their own solutions.

That's simply a blind assumption without any supporting evidence whatsoever. Further, no one said the zombies had to be organized, they just have to exist. 2 groups of 40+ people each, or 25 small fmaily groups of 2-5 people, either way you're overwhelmed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o you reasonably think if TSHTF, going around exploring villages and attacking houses, is something very convenient?

When you have nothing to lose and nothing else worth doing, then 'convenience' doesn't really matter.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o yourself a favour and walk on bare foot to the nearest village you can find on a map. At the end of the trip, you will get it why it's not such a good idea.
Try not eating something before, not wearing some comfortable shoes and clothes ... by the time you will make, even a 16 year old girl will beat you to death :)

Obviously the zombies that don't procure themselves shoes and aren't fit will not survive. That doesn't mean there will be absolutely no zombies anywhere, ever. Even the unfit zombies might be able to make it 1 town over before they cark it - that doesn't really help you if your farm was in that particular town.


Just to be clear, I am on the fence on the whole 'zombie' problem. It certainly seems plausible, but it greatly depends on how things roll out, and especially how rapidly. However the arguments you have presented in this post are far from convincing.
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