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THE Roubini Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby ReverseEngineer » Fri 24 Oct 2008, 00:53:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ''')'In a fairly Darwinian manner, many hedge funds will simply disappear,'' Roman said. The hedge fund industry is stumbling through its worst year in two decades and posted its biggest monthly drop for a decade in September.
Hedge funds are mostly private pools of capital whose managers participate substantially in the profits from their speculation on whether the price of assets will rise or fall.

Hedge Funds will fail? That can't happen, they are Too Big to Fail. These are the Ubermeisters, the Super Rich everyone thinks will remain "untouched". Can somebody explain to me how the Rich are going to stay rich here?
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby UltraViciousBudgie » Fri 24 Oct 2008, 01:31:25

Closing the markets would be like closing a dam's floodgates during a flood.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby crabnebulous » Fri 24 Oct 2008, 03:17:53

Read this:
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi roiled international markets on Oct. 10, first saying world leaders were discussing shutting down global financial exchanges, and then saying he didn't mean it.

So, how much did ITALY make one this GAFFE? How much money can you make knowing what you say will roil the world markets tomorrow?

certainly he could have made biiionons *considering* the gaffe was preplanned. Isn't it sad, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby crabnebulous » Fri 24 Oct 2008, 03:20:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ''')'In a fairly Darwinian manner, many hedge funds will simply disappear,'' Roman said. The hedge fund industry is stumbling through its worst year in two decades and posted its biggest monthly drop for a decade in September.
Hedge funds are mostly private pools of capital whose managers participate substantially in the profits from their speculation on whether the price of assets will rise or fall.
Hedge Funds will fail? That can't happen, they are Too Big to Fail. These are the Ubermeisters, the Super Rich everyone thinks will remain "untouched". Can somebody explain to me how the Rich are going to stay rich here?

They won't. they just invent a new money and give themselves 90% of it again.

You can draw any cartoon you want if you are an artist. what counts is they have the power of hypnosis, whatever they say people do, so money is nothig to them, They own much property, like almost all of it, who needs money?

remember they are going to collapse their own money alse, just give themselves piles of the new stuff , no problem. If you are the banker for monopoly you never run out of money if you are sneaky enough.

The guards at auschwitz were no richer than the prisoners, but their lifestyle was very different.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby ReverseEngineer » Fri 24 Oct 2008, 03:35:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crabnebulous', 'r')emember they are going to collapse their own money alse, just give themselves piles of the new stuff , no problem.

This is a common thread on the board that I have read, just nobody here seems to know or agree on just HOW some sort of "new money" will be introduced, the "Amero" has been discussed at some length but seems unworkable, as does rebooting under a New Gold Standard.

Short term here in the US, I would see a vast increase in the Food Stamp program, and some kind of Fuel or Energy Stamps (or digital credits), but beyond that I really cannot figure out how a new Reserve Currency will be introduced out of this for the purposes of world trade.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby idiom » Fri 24 Oct 2008, 04:48:51

Nations will have to operate on a command economy for a while.

Its getting out of it and back to normality that opens a really dangerous political hole.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby ohcomeon » Fri 24 Oct 2008, 06:53:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('idiom', 'N')ations will have to operate on a command economy for a while. Its getting out of it and back to normality that opens a really dangerous political hole.

Idiom, Sorry to be showing my ignorance, but what is a "command" economy?
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby smallpoxgirl » Fri 24 Oct 2008, 06:57:31

Timely thread. Trading of S&P and Dow Jones Index futures was halted this morning due to a limit drop. We'll have to see if the indexes themselves follow suit.
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I lost my way" - OCMS
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby pedalling_faster » Fri 24 Oct 2008, 08:48:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohcomeon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('idiom', 'N')ations will have to operate on a command economy for a while. Its getting out of it and back to normality that opens a really dangerous political hole.
Idiom,
Sorry to be showing my ignorance, but what is a "command" economy?

e.g. Soviet Russia. top down, run administratively, not by markets. the markets sit there quivering like jellyfish on a beach, the government says, "hey, we got 1000 tons of corn here, we need to move it over there, get to work".
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby Dreamtwister » Fri 24 Oct 2008, 10:35:19

I saw something this morning while channel browsing on TV. One of the talking heads on CNN made a passing mention of people not being allowed to "trade on the downside". I didn't catch the context, but that sounds like "not allowed to sell".

They were also talking about the trading curbs again. Not surprising, since the Dow was down ~500 points at the time.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby copious.abundance » Fri 31 Oct 2008, 21:19:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('billg', 'N')otice he says "in coming days", not in the coming weeks or months. [...]

It's been over a week. I'm getting impatient.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby shortonoil » Fri 31 Oct 2008, 22:45:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')edge Funds will fail? That can't happen, they are Too Big to Fail. These are the Ubermeisters, the Super Rich everyone thinks will remain "untouched". Can somebody explain to me how the Rich are going to stay rich here?

This will end badly, maybe not in a few days, but soon enough. As debt backed fiat is pumped into the system without any debt to back it, asset values are falling $ per $. What is being done is equivalent to discounting Dallas (or some major city) every week.

This can not continue for much longer, as the whole system is losing integrity and will collapse into itself when enough people wake up to what is happening!
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby patience » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 08:08:52

Hey, Short! I've missed your posts for a while.
Care to comment on the GEAB/LEAP 2020 prediction? They said the US would go to default by summer of 2009. I think it meant an inability to sell Treasuries fast enough.

Personally, with little insight into these things, all I can do is try to pay attention to those who do understand them.

edit: "..enough people wake up....", meaning foreigners who have been buying Treasuries?
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby shortonoil » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 13:10:01

Hi patience$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ey, Short! I've missed your posts ffor a while.
Care to comment on the GEAB/LEAP 2020 prediction? They said the US would go to default by summer of 2009. I think it meant an inability to sell Treasuries fast enough.
Personally, with little insight into these things, all I can do is try to pay attention to those who do understand them.
edit: "..enough people wake up....", meaning foreigners who have been buying Treasuries?

Interest rates on Fannie and Feddie bonds are rising rapidly. These are now EXPLICITLY backed US government GSE bonds. That does not bode well for the future of Treasuries!

The US has, so far, been able to dump its debt because other nations are seeing a faster decline than it has (Europe, Russia and the emerging economies of Asia), and the $ still remains the wold's reserve currency.

With the US slated for a $1 to $2 trillion deficient coming up next year, I expect we that will see a change in the outlook of foreign buyers in the near future. Plunging oil revenues in the ME (the country's largest supporter) will reverse the buying patterns of their SIVs.

Watch for interest rate rises on the Treasury long bonds (10 and 30 year). That will be the indication that buyers are leaving a sinking ship.

PO will appear to turn the rules of economics upside down! Be cautious.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby patience » Sun 02 Nov 2008, 09:12:52

Shortonoil,

Thanks for the insight! We currently have our (only remaining) investment in Treasuries, in my wife's Thrift Savings Plan at her govt job. We want it out of there, so our dilemna devolves to:

1) Take it now, and take a bad tax hit this year, since we also pulled other 401k's last January.

2) Or, take part now, and part after the first of January, 2009, risking that world economics could go blooey before then. An interest rate increase (decrease in sale value of T's) wouldn't be so bad, but who knows what measures happen along with it? Well, a small haircut, that is. I can see the possibility of T's going down dramatically, too.

Others have said that foreign buyers could decide to dump T's in a hurry, so there would be little warning. I prefer to stay at least one step ahead of the devil here.

Damn the thieves who put us all in this mess!
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 02 Nov 2008, 09:36:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')his will end badly, maybe not in a few days, but soon enough. As debt backed fiat is pumped into the system without any debt to back it, asset values are falling $ per $. What is being done is equivalent to discounting Dallas (or some major city) every week.
This can not continue for much longer, as the whole system is losing integrity and will collapse into itself when enough people wake up to what is happening!

What I find remarkable is that clearly bright people willfully ignore what is going on right in front of them. They contine trading and the Dow puts up some Positive Number which doesn't reflect anything real anymore. GM has a positive (if low) value on the exchange when said company is clearly bankrupt, closing factories all over the place and begging the Goobermint for a handout? What kind of sense does that make?

Certainly its going to end badly, but really could there have been a good end to this? Bankruptcy for the individual is never a pleasant experience, how could bankruptcy for an entire nation, really an entire world be anything but orders of magnitude more unpleasant?

That this nightmare is affecting the psychology here on the board isn't all that surprising, members getting frustrated with each other and attacks made from all sides. People debating the upcoming election as though who is elected here really makes any difference at all? What will be left for Obama to Tax by the time he takes office anyhow?

I remain mystified that the system still is working in any fashion, I remain mystified that the plastic still works. Apparently, at least for a while people can live on a dream. AS you say though, it can't last long.

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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby shortonoil » Sun 02 Nov 2008, 11:27:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ertainly its going to end badly, but really could there have been a good end to this? Bankruptcy for the individual is never a pleasant experience, how could bankruptcy for an entire nation, really an entire world be anything but orders of magnitude more unpleasant?
That this nightmare is affecting the psychology here on the board isn't all that surprising, members getting frustrated with each other and attacks made from all sides. People debating the upcoming election as though who is elected here really makes any difference at all? What will be left for Obama to Tax by the time he takes office anyhow?
I remain mystified that the system still is working in any fashion, I remain mystified that the plastic still works. Apparently, at least for a while people can live on a dream. AS you say though, it can't last long. Reverse Engineer

Yes, it will end badly, but it did not have to end as badly as it is going to end! As fossil fuels' energy contribution declines so will the economy it supports. That is likely to be between 3.5 to 5% per year.

That, in itself, did not have to be catastrophic. What appears to have been insatiable greed has magnified the problem a hundred fold. We have seen that ignorance displayed through out our society. The desire for the McMansion, or the $300 per pair of designer jeans is merely a different form of the same failure of thought that brought some Hedge Fund to be leveraged 100:1.

The failure to acknowledge that we exist in a finite world with finite resources does not require a culture of Einsteins to appreciate. It merely requires a culture that possesses a smattering of common sense and a loss of our self effectuated hubris. That is a lesson we will be paying dearly to learn!

That said, for the individual I only see one course of action available; accept the reality that tomorrow will not be better than today. In all likely hood it will be worse. Learn to use the resources that are available as efficiently as possible, something that our society has failed at completely. Drop the delusion that any whim will be attainable by waving a hand full of colored paper in the air.

Although many wonderful things have been achieved in the last century, we have led ourselves down a cruel cul-de-sac. For us, as individuals, to duplicate the failures of our society is just confirmation that we lack the common sense that could have prevented us from being put in our present position.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 02 Nov 2008, 12:09:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')Although many wonderful things have been achieved in the last century, we have led ourselves down a cruel cul-de-sac. For us, as individuals, to duplicate the failures of our society is just confirmation that we lack the common sense that could have prevented us from being put in our present position.


You know, I think in good measure it was the very success with inventions tied to the thermodynamic energy of oil that so seduced people as to lose all common sense.

Electric Light Bulbs, Refrigerators, Cars, all these things came so quickly and so easily. Inside of one generation, easy personal transportation, light at the flick of a switch, good fresh food and ice cold beer in the fridge became expected, almost a God-given right. Not just "rich" people had these things, EVERYBODY had them! For the generation growing up with this plenty, it all seemed so easy. Ignored of course were the vast numbers of people who never saw the benefits of basically free energy, except on the occassional TV commercial for the Christian Children's Fund of course. "For just pennies a day, you can help this child!" Some gave as individuals, as a society we gave food aid but of course all that did was end up with overshoot of population.

The further away people get from the actual work it takes to survive, the less common sense they have. We got SOOOO far away from it using the inventions and the thermodynamic power of oil that what was depleted FIRST here was Common Sense. We hit Peak Common Sense probably sometime around 1750, and have been getting Shorter on Common Sense all the time.

Human Nature being what it is, I don't think there is any way this could have been avoided, though certainly some did try. The Amish did of course try to disavow the use of machines to make a man's work easier. Such a philosophy of ascetisism though just did not play well with the vast majority of people seduced by the easy life machines could give them. Who scrubs clothes anymore or even hangs them out on a laundry line to dry? When I was a boy, we didn't have a drier, the clothes went on a line outside to dry hung up on clothespins. I haven't seen laundry outside drying in 20 years. How many barrels of oil have been burned to dry laundry that easily could have been dried outside hanging for a few hours? It would be common sense that this is wasteful, but it sure is easier to toss the laundry in a drier than it is to hang it up on clothespins.

I agree we will have to give up much of this, these wonderful inventions like the car that made our lives so much easier, but just how capable we are now of returning to simpler ways of living that take a lot more work remains to be seen. The illusion is still there this can be perpetuated, and people will not let go of the dream willingly. It will have to be stripped from under them when the Alarm Clock rings, as it surely will. As John Donne said, "Ask not for Whom the Bell Tolls, it Tolls for Thee"

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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby shortonoil » Sun 02 Nov 2008, 14:50:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Reverse Engineer', 'T')he further away people get from the actual work it takes to survive, the less common sense they have. We got SOOOO far away from it using the inventions and the thermodynamic power of oil that what was depleted FIRST here was Common Sense. We hit Peak Common Sense probably sometime around 1750, and have been getting Shorter on Common Sense all the time.

Our Common Sense has become so short in supply that we have begun to believe that risk can be removed from our lives. Johnny is no longer permitted to build a tree house in the woods as it may be dangerous and pedophiles may lurk there, and banks believe that risk can be spread an inch thick and a mile wide by issuing CDS.

We are so far removed from the actual work needed to survive that we are no longer capable of accurately assessing life's risk. This will no doubtfully have grave consequences in the Post Peak world to come. We are now so convinced that risk is totally controlled, that we refuse to look for the train that has sounded the whistle!

PO in and of itself is a grave risk to modern civilization, but our well condition belief that we need not respond to it, is its most dangerous and dire aspect?
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby topcat » Mon 03 Nov 2008, 08:23:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Patience', 'T')hanks for the insight! We currently have our (only remaining) investment in Treasuries, in my wife's Thrift Savings Plan at her govt job. We want it out of there, so our dilemna devolves to:

As your wife is still working, I thought there were several conditions where you can 'loan' yourself money from the account? If so, then you would at least have the money (without penalties I think) and repay the funds next year right before pulling the funds right back out?????

Just a hairball idea.
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