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Middle ground between believers & deniers

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Any middle grounders here?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 14:31:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattS', '
')Because of the very efficiency of modern farming, I suspect it will be able to afford the cost of fossil fuels well beyond the average motorist, which is reasonable.


Little good it will do if nobody can afford to buy the food.
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Re: Any middle grounders here?

Unread postby Homesteader » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 14:31:18

After all is said and done, a lot more is said than done.
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill

Beliefs are what people fall back on when the facts make them uncomfortable.
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Re: Any middle grounders here?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 14:32:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattS', ' ')you use electricity generated from your favorite non fossil fuel source to make hydrogen, which you then run your tractor with.


Any real-life examples?
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Re: Any middle grounders here?

Unread postby Narz » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 14:33:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'R')eally :lol:

You ask a corny about an agriculture system not dependent on petroleum. And Narz answers electric tractors Hello? What about outlets? Extension cords? This is laughable :twisted:

Extension cords?? You ever heard of batteries? :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'I')f things are gonna be so farking bad, wouldn't it make sense for the doomers to keep quiet and prepare on their own? Unless we're to believe they're some sort of noble altruists.
Funny you should say that. You are the only guy I share this with. But you won't listen :cry:

Maybe if you made points (perhaps respond to jtmorgan & MattS) instead of one liners about how I "don't get it".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', 'N')arz,

I've got an experiment you can do. If you aren't working full time it will be even better since you will be able to devote plenty of time and energy to the experiment. It will be good real world experience for you.

Start a lawn care business that is powered by electricity. Whatever combination of solar, plug-in etc. . . that you think is best. Think of the great marketing. I'm sure some of the larger corporations will sign up, maybe you will even get a few of those big ball fields to mow. Be sure to tell them that fertilizing isn't an option.

Extrapolate your results to Kansas for starters, the rest of the world can extrapolate later.

Can I get a grant? :wink:
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Re: Any middle grounders here?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 14:38:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')I don't like to use the 'R' online but without land redistribution there can be no sustainable agriculture.


Totally agree.

The trend worldwide currently is to move to the city, away from the land.
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Re: Any middle grounders here?

Unread postby jtmorgan61 » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 14:39:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'H')ow will people pay for the food when their petroleum-dependent jobs are gone? You just got rid of all the "frivolous" jobs.


Nah, just about 10-20% in the scenario I was discussing above. But you raise a good point.

I think the shape of the response to this issue, depends on what scenario are we talking about. Are we buying ASPO numbers and pretty solid 2nd-Gen biofuel growth after 2015? Because when I try to model that scenario I generally wind up with efficiency improvements a bit behind net depletion in the 2010-15 timeframe, but substantially outpacing net depletion thereafter, i.e. net economic growth.

Are we buying ASPO but not biofuels or Simmons/Ace with biofuels? Then we have a high incidence of recessions and perhaps a 20% lower standard of living by 2030, much of it disguised through inflation, product downsizing, etc. I think in this scenario we see a major expansion of government food stamps and people taking manual labor jobs that illegals do now for illegal wages (not an easy life, but none of those farm workers here in CA are starving.) Some of this increase in available manual labor helps to displace oil use.

On the other hand, if we are buying Simmons/Ace numbers with no biofuel then this is a crisis, no doubt. (This is the moderate thread, not the cornucopian thread.) We are talking about an expansion of government redistribution not seen since the Great Depression. This brings back another intractable disagreement I had with Monte/Savinar, which is the attitude of elites toward mass starvation and the social instability it causes. I took the position that regardless of whether or not the rich give a shit about the poor, a rash of food riots would persuade them to give up a little ground to keeping everyone alive and pacified. With the exception of the defense sector, societal collapse is bad for business. Given the choice, I think most would give up 20 or even 30% of their wealth if the other choice was paying 20-30% of their wealth to live in a fortified compound. And you better believe people on the brink of starvation are going to elect officials who will help them out.
Last edited by jtmorgan61 on Fri 25 Jul 2008, 14:53:29, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: Any middle grounders here?

Unread postby Narz » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 14:42:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')otally agree.

The trend worldwide currently is to move to the city, away from the land.

This has been a trend for hundreds of years.
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Re: Any middle grounders here?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 14:53:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')This has been a trend for hundreds of years.


It seems as though it might take hundreds of years to reverse it.
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Re: Any middle grounders here?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 14:55:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', ' ')whether or not the rich give a crap about the poor, a rash of food riots would persuade them to give up a little ground to keeping everyone alive and pacified.


You seem to be talking about the developed world. What about the rest of the world, the part nobody gives a crap about? Or don't they count?
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Re: Any middle grounders here?

Unread postby jtmorgan61 » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 15:16:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'Y')ou seem to be talking about the developed world. What about the rest of the world, the part nobody gives a crap about? Or don't they count?


Ok, so we're talking about the most pessimistic oil supply scenario. (One which, I'll point out in passing, it'll be pretty easy to see coming in 3-4 years if a decline kicks in and all of the various ethanol and XTL plants come up emptyhanded).

Rural agriculture in poor countries has a lot less distance to fall than in rich countries (check out Staniford's analysis of potential efficiency improvements in Africa, for example). According to Vinod Khosla, 3/4 of the world's poor are rural and mostly subsistence farmers. Are the rural poor going to be more exposed to drought and other climate change effects if first-world governments are being stretched? Are the 1/4 urban poor (again, my canary in the coalmine) even more exposed? Yeah. Could we see some famines killing off tens of millions? It's possible.

But I also suspect that responding to spot famines is a relatively miniscule use of oil and another situation where the elite are going to suck it up and pay for it. Or maybe it'll get ignored once, tens of millions will die, and a global pandemic comes out of it that indiscriminately kills a few hundred million. That will get their attention.
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Re: Any middle grounders here?

Unread postby Narz » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 15:22:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')otally agree.

The trend worldwide currently is to move to the city, away from the land.

This has been a trend for hundreds of years.
That explanation explains or solves nothing. People have moved to the city as a consequence of an agriculture dependent on automation, servitude, and fossil fuels. The reverse must happen to avoid consequences. But it can't because of land ownership.

Trust me I wouldn't mind having some land redistributed my way but it's not going to happen because the one's who make the rules aren't about to give me any, even if they could walk their whole lives across the land they own and not reach the end of it.

Those in power will try their damdest to keep the current system afloat. Only if it proves completely untenable will they allow socialist reforms and only enough to keep the people satiated enough to continue to work for them.

I can totally understand why people wish the whole system would come crashing down.
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Re: Any middle grounders here?

Unread postby AgentR » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 16:07:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') don't like to use the 'R' online but without land redistribution there can be no sustainable agriculture.


Unfortunately. "land redistribution" ALWAYS results in placing land in the hands of the politically favored or victim-of-the-month; as opposed to giving it to some who might be very skilled at farming, but very hated politically and socially.

So.. while in the classroom, one could say that redistribution takes land from a super rich corporation and gives it to the poor farmers; what it usually does is take land from large pension and retirement funds, and gives it to poor people who have no clue what to do with it.

A better solution, if the oil price / availability curve continue to run up consistently is to allow chunks of parcels to become uneconomic for agro-business to farm; at which point the parcels are disposed of; and after a couple cycles through the hands of people that think they know what they are doing, but don't; the land will end up owned or leased by people that *DO* know what they are doing.
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And so shall we remain; Until the end.
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Re: Any middle grounders here?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 16:30:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'p')oor people who have no clue what to do with it.


That's certainly a problem. Not many of us would know what to do with a piece of land on which to grow food if it were suddenly presented to us.

Knowledge and skills are lacking.
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Re: Any middle grounders here?

Unread postby Narz » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 18:44:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'p')oor people who have no clue what to do with it.


That's certainly a problem. Not many of us would know what to do with a piece of land on which to grow food if it were suddenly presented to us.

Knowledge and skills are lacking.

That's because people are hungry enough yet.
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Re: Any middle grounders here?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 18:50:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')That's because people are hungry enough yet.


Being hungry doesn't magically give you the knowledge and skills to grow food.
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