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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

What will you cut back on to compensate for higher energy prices?

Travel
95
No votes
Eating out/Entertainment
89
No votes
Groceries
2
No votes
Purchases of capital goods
33
No votes
Tech Toys: Cell phones, cable TV, etc.
77
No votes
Investments
10
No votes
Recreation
18
No votes
 
Total votes : 324

Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil

Unread postby countrymomma » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 09:36:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') didn't read the fine print so who knows how many years the lease would have to be signed for but what difference does it make?
Whoever is brave enough or foolish would only last 1 year anyways in today's economy.
I think some of these retail spaces will be converted to residential as American's disposable income drops.


My husband is an electrician, primarily working with new commercial construction. In the last 5 years a large portion of his job sites consist of strip malls and those walk-in doctor's offices inside of strip malls (new or existing).

The thing all these sites have in common?

They are mostly empty! After the buildings are ready for tenants most of them remain unused with signs posted for who to contact to lease the empty spaces. The parking lots are big stretches of asphalt slightly sprinkled with cars.

These mini-malls are built for pandering to frivolity. Whole boutiques dedicated to $100 toddler party dresses, scrap booking with all its fancy do-dads, innumerable cellphone dealers, nail salons, nail salons, nail salons....

What do I see in the strip malls that went under before the new ones were built? They are boarded up, with even bigger "for lease" signs tacked everywhere. In their weedy parking lots the local farmers' markets do a pretty good business under temporary tarps.
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Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 09:50:55

Low barriers to Entry and EXIT, but it sounds like a lot of those empty malls and parking lots are ripe for new brown field redevelopment. No asbestos, no toxics, no underground contaminents to clean-up. Just raze the place! Thanks for the post! ; - ))
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 12:47:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('criticalmass', 'Y')ou may all find this an interesting sidenote:

While writing an econometrics paper in college (circa 2003) I wrote a statistical regression. ~It was long and sweet~ The end result was a predictor: that entire US economic collapse would happen when we paid equivalent to $7.20 at the pump for gasoline. My father even laughed after he got to see it, stating "not in my lifetime."

Obviously there is a lot more that goes into that regression like % spent on energy per capita, inflation, $BBL and the correlation between them all, and so on: but I think I was a bit off because economic collapse seems to be happening much quicker.


Have you seen this doozy?

Image

Hubbert's Peak, Current Events
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Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil

Unread postby patience » Tue 22 Jul 2008, 16:44:07

The Louisville radio news says Kentucky is taking another look at their highway projects for the coming year. Construction costs have gone up 50% since the projects were planned, forcing the state to consider narrower shoulders, patching and repairing instead of rebuilding, and other cost cutting.

Our roads are going to suffer rather quickly, it seems.
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Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil

Unread postby cube » Tue 22 Jul 2008, 20:13:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'T')he Louisville radio news says Kentucky is taking another look at their highway projects for the coming year. Construction costs have gone up 50% since the projects were planned, forcing the state to consider narrower shoulders, patching and repairing instead of rebuilding, and other cost cutting.

Our roads are going to suffer rather quickly, it seems.
I used to work for the DOT and even back then, the guys over in the maintenance department were complaining about a lack of funds. They came up with a "clever" idea to stretch the tax payer's dollars a little further. Instead of repaving the freeway "properly" they instead cut 2 parallel trenches and filled it with asphalt. A car's tires only touch 2 parallel strips of a roadway much like a train on railroad tracks.....so that's the "plan" for now. :roll:

Suburbia will collapse not because we couldn't afford the fuel, but because we couldn't afford to maintain the freeways.
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Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil

Unread postby criticalmass » Wed 23 Jul 2008, 18:04:23

Dude. I have seen that "doozy." That's what I call a "wall." It's the point when things seem imeasurable on a chart.
We hit it pretty fast, but that's what the market demanded. The tricky part is inferring our position in the global picture with so little information available to the US public.

Also, Dude, "Chinamen" is not the preferred nomenclature :)
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Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil

Unread postby criticalmass » Wed 23 Jul 2008, 18:07:49

Dude. I have seen that "doozy." That's what I call a "wall." It's the point when things seem imeasurable on a chart.
We hit it pretty fast, but that's what the market demanded. The tricky part is inferring our position in the global picture with so little information available to the US public.

Also, Dude, "Chinamen" is not the preferred nomenclature :)
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Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 23 Jul 2008, 23:50:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'S')uburbia will collapse not because we couldn't afford the fuel, but because we couldn't afford to maintain the freeways.
The freeways will stay intact, at least the transit corridors. Smaller highways and roads otoh, might end up going back to dirt, not that it's impassable. Back to the future, lotsa cargo capacity, ~30-40mpg or better if driven conservatively, and 4WD. I'm looking forward to the little 600cc Hino/Isuzu/etc trucks in the states. The same half ton payload as a pickup twice it's size, and ~30-40mpg to boot.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil

Unread postby patience » Thu 24 Jul 2008, 19:49:34

A truck driver neighbor came to our shop today for a small steel purchase, saying he just bought a newer used semi truck. His old one blew up the motor, and a rebuild would be $18,000. And, he'd still have a truck with 917,000 miles on it. He bought one a year newer, with only 200,000 miles on it for $25,000. A no-brainer in his situation. He has a fairly good contract hauling to a power plant.

Trucking is suffering a lot from a slowing economy, etc., and thus brought the price of the used truck down to this point. Not too many years ago, the engine rebuild would have been much more competitive he said.

Separately, Louisville is celebrating at the news that Ford will retool their Explorer plant, previously set to be closed, for new small cars. If Ford can stay solvent, that is.
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