[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('4tangent', 'W')hat can the individual do?

[Baldwin]

Unfortunately I will be requiring transatlantic flights (NY to UK) until spring 2012. I'll find a way, by hook or by crook, to make it work.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')ere's some pics of our little microfarm:
http://www.msad54.org/sahs/appliedarts/ ... /index.htm

[eco-tech]

I was just wondering if there is a list here on what jobs will fall first compared which ones will go lasst. I deliver beer and liquor for a local supplier. I think mine will be ok for a while because people want to drink, the majority of the customers I deliver to are in poor depressed areas already. what are you opinions are on alternate fuel like hydrogen or ethanol?

[MrBill]

As the economic noose of post peak oil resource depletion and climate change tightens one can only wonder whether we will also witness a peak aid giving and a peak international cooperation coinciding with that fall in economic activity with lower living standards for the vast majority as well.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The editorial also accused the international community of being stingy, noting that the United Nations' $201 million "flash appeal" was still a long way from being full nearly four weeks after the disaster, which left 134,000 dead or missing.

The level of aid stands in stark contrast to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, when outside governments promised $2 billion within a week of the disaster.

"Myanmar needs about $11 billion. The pledging amounted to over $150 million, less than the $201 million mentioned by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon as emergency aid," it said, adding a thinly veiled swipe at arch-enemy the United States.

[wisconsin_cur]

NYT: The price of oil raises manufactoring costs

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')urging oil prices are beginning to cut into the profits of a wide range of American businesses, pushing many to raise prices and maneuver aggressively to offset the rising cost of merchandise made from petroleum.

Airlines, package shippers and car owners are no longer the only ones being squeezed by the ever-mounting price of oil, which shot up almost $11 a barrel on Friday alone, to $138.54, a record.

Companies that make hard goods using raw materials derived from oil, like tires, toiletries, plastic packaging and computer screens, are watching their costs skyrocket, and they find themselves forced into unpleasant choices: Should they raise prices, shift to less costly procedures, cut workers, or all three?

The Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company is trying to adapt. Its raw material of choice now is natural rubber rather than synthetic rubber, made from oil. To sustain profits, it is making more high-end tires for consumers willing to pay upwards of $100 to replace each tire on their cars.

These steps have not been enough, however, particularly now that the cost of natural rubber is also rising sharply, along with that of many other commodities. So Goodyear has raised the prices of its tires by 15 percent in just four months.

“Our strategy is to raise prices and improve the mix to offset the cost of raw materials,” said Keith Price, a Goodyear spokesman. “No one has predicted how long we can continue to do that.”

The sense that many companies may be hitting a wall is palpable. Corporate profits peaked last spring and have shrunk since then, Moody’s Economy.com reports, drawing on Commerce Department data.

[hayseed]

The choices of what to do without are urban choices. Living in the wilds away from a large urban center, there is no travel or vacation because who would milk the goats were I not here or feed the guineas or the goat guard dog? With the nearest restaurant 50 miles round trip, that was once a week and now probably once a month due to gas prices so I guess eating out is my giving up.

As to population, those that can survive the long hours of work required to feed themselves will be needed. Do the statistics on numbers of people needed to produce food before big John Deere and artifical pesticides, fertilizers, and herbicides. I spend many hours pulling weeds, composting, caring for insectivore poultry, collecting cattle manure, mulching the garden from the barn litter, and I am usually always dead tired at the end of the workday. I fall asleep watching the weather reports in the hopes of some rain. I spend a lot of time reading how to do all this and I have not even begun to store up in a non-refrigerated food supply method, i.e., canning or root cellaring (even if I could dig out the boulders required to build one).

The problem is not too many people, but too many people doing the wrong things with no structure to get those people doing the right things, like retrofitting agriculture large scale to small scale. Those of us trying are overwhelmed with the volume of work and the lack of anyone who wants to do it, hence immigration farm laborers because all you urbanites want to sit around discussing things instead of picking up the manure forks and getting to work.

But you can tell times are 'a changing when one of the investment stations allowed a "real" farmer to discuss what to invest in (with smug sneers by the New York investment experts). The "real" farmer recommendation--would you believe Monsanto? How's that for being totally, completely out of touch with reality? Monsanto means dieoff, which is okay with me. Anybody who invests in Monsanto should die off and leave the earth to those who will take care of it.

[patience]

hayseed,

"..Too many people doing the wrong things..."

Agreed. I think this will sort itself out, as things change, but it will be messy.

I deal with farmers in my repair business. Few, if any I know, truly understand the problems we have now, and none have solutions in mind, except for reacting to cost/price pressures. Even the oldest farmers, who started long before chemical farming, don't understand PO and its' implication, although they may be doing some of the right things for the wrong reasons. That is, they are reverting to old ways to save money, such as crop rotations and away from monoculture. But they don't have a clue about PO, and are blaming politicians, oil companies, or whatever.

So, I see the biggest problem being to correct the thinking of the general public, and farmers in particular, so they can make decisions based on the facts. Hard to do with so much misinformation out there. I try, and even have some credibility with my customers, but I don't get very far. Everyone is fixated on the symptoms (high prices for ag inputs), and can't see past them.

[MrBill]

Price spirals as feedback loops start to re-inforce one another starting with higher energy prices.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')u]"The commodity boom is itself a part of the demand for steel," Thurtell said. "Demand for steel to build Mideast refineries is astounding."

The sharp rise in iron ore prices continued to ripple through Asia on Tuesday. Nippon Steel denied a Japanese press report that said it had agreed to pay BHP Billiton double the amount in its previous contract.

ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steel maker, in May said it was raising prices in Europe as production costs had risen by as much as $500 a ton. The company, which is aiming to control costs by obtaining control over the majority of its iron ore production, signed a deal in April with the Brazilian miner Vale under which it would pay 87 percent more for iron ore from that company.

ArcelorMittal said the price of coking coal had risen 550 percent since 2005, while iron ore prices had climbed 360 percent, even as market prices for steel rose less than 200 percent. Prices for scrap iron have risen 220 percent, putting the cost of the raw material above the price of finished steel in some contracts. That development puts great pressure on steel producers to renegotiate existing contracts to a level at which they can at least break even.

[efarmer]

Yup, the core of the predictions made here over the last few
years is playing out like the script from a play now (save for
the carnivorous zombie herds) and the trolling and heckling
deniers are mighty scarce. But before folks tackle sensible
living arrangements they are going to have to crash into
reality about 10 consecutive times before they abandon
the mindless convenience they have enjoyed for so long.

Just as those who put their money on petroleum prices
made out like bandits over the past two years, the next
thing is to position our personal lives as much as possible
in positions that are overlooked but will be crucial as
what Albert Bates calls "The Great Change" rolls forward.

Consuming less is the only way to counter this trend,
and it does not come natural to 'Mericans at all.

[Mominator]

>>>>>>MonteQuest
The end of cheap fossil fuels is going to have some dire repercussions. I'm not sure how accurate mine might be, but it sure is a place to start a discussion. Let's try to focus on the near-term effects. We are seeing some of them already in inflation and rising interest rates. And let's assume we don't have a Murphy's Law event right away to start a domino effect that leads to chaos, ok?<<<<<<<<




I think it will go like this:
Reduced consumer spending
Unemployment
Further Reduced consumer spending

more or less then


Homelessness
Squatting
Hunger

[wisconsin_cur]

Oil Costs force P&G to rethink transportation network

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')oaring energy prices are forcing Procter & Gamble to rethink how it distributes its products, with the world’s biggest consumer goods company shifting manufacturing sites closer to consumers to cut its transport bill.

Keith Harrison, head of global supply at P&G, the maker of Tide detergent, Crest toothpaste and Pampers, said the era of high oil prices was forcing P&G to change.

“A lot of our supply chain design work was really developed and implemented in the 1980s and 1990s, when our capital spending was fairly high as a cost of capacity and oil was 10 bucks a barrel,” said Mr Harrison in an interview with the Financial Times.

“I could say that the supply chain design is now upside down. The environment has changed. Transportation cost is going to create an even more distributed sourcing network than we would have had otherwise.”

Earlier this year, P&G launched a comprehensive review of the design of its entire supply operations in response to rising energy costs and its increasingly global expansion.

“We’ve kicked off a study that really asks: what is our business going to look like in 2015?” he said.

[MrBill]

I guess the Tide has turned against their old supply chain. But they cannot Pamper their old suppliers as it looks like we are on the Crest of permanently higher energy prices now. Procter should not Gamble that the situation will be any better in 2015.

[patience]

My tire supplier said all his stuff is going up another 12% on July 1st. Rubber goods use a lot of petrochemicals, but I have no way to know if they have a lag time in pricing, or are ahead of the curve. My guess is, they have held off increases to keep from killing sales, which seems to be the case in a lot of retail.

[mobil1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'M')y tire supplier said all his stuff is going up another 12% on July 1st. Rubber goods use a lot of petrochemicals, but I have no way to know if they have a lag time in pricing, or are ahead of the curve. My guess is, they have held off increases to keep from killing sales, which seems to be the case in a lot of retail.

[MikeInHouston]

I agree with Elijah. Past global consumption of oil does not look like all the graphs of Hubbert Curve. From 1979 to 1983 oil consumption declined 13%. An increase in price will make demand go down. In fact consumption has decreased slightly since 2005.
2008 number are not in yet but I think it will be another slight decrease.

The theory of Peak Oil, from Hubbert's perspective only looks at the facts below ground. Supply and Demand will have an impact on the final results.

We are not going to just run out of oil, just cheap oil. There will still be oil being produced 100 years from now.

We should be able to streach thinks out for quite some time, people will starve, financial markets will collapse ect. ect.

Death is usually not sudden and neat.

[MrBill]

"With the gas prices, it eats into what I might spend on concessions because at that point then I might as well just eat at home, save my funds and drink in a bar after the game instead of enjoying $8 beers,"

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ven in an economic downturn, fans still go to sports games, and some leagues are setting attendance records, but such statistics hide a more complicated story on the effect of a weakening U.S. economy on sports.

In a Reuters/Zogby survey on June 12 to 14, almost 15 percent of those polled said they are attending fewer sporting events this year, and most of those people cited the weak economy as the reason. About 28 percent are spending less on food and souvenirs.

"The reality is people are going to spend less and be more careful about choosing what they spend it on," Rich Gotham, president of the National Basketball Association's Boston Celtics, said in a telephone interview.

The results of the survey were borne out in numerous interviews at ballparks, arenas, golf courses and race tracks around the United States, where fans like Holzhammer said they were scaling back on what they spend.

(continued)

Gas prices and other rising expenses are hitting consumers everywhere. Almost six of every 10 polled in the Reuters/Zogby survey are considering changing how often they drive, 39 percent mulling changes to where they vacation and 31 percent reconsidering how often they eat out.

[criticalmass]

You may all find this an interesting sidenote:

While writing an econometrics paper in college (circa 2003) I wrote a statistical regression. ~It was long and sweet~ The end result was a predictor: that entire US economic collapse would happen when we paid equivalent to $7.20 at the pump for gasoline. My father even laughed after he got to see it, stating "not in my lifetime."

Obviously there is a lot more that goes into that regression like % spent on energy per capita, inflation, $BBL and the correlation between them all, and so on: but I think I was a bit off because economic collapse seems to be happening much quicker.

I should have recieved an "F"

At the time, I knew nothing of Peak Oil Theory. Having studied it for a few years now, I'm finding that it holds more and more water.
I'd also like to point out that the previous couple of posts cite US efficiency gains and changes in deand. This is a GLOBAL economy. I had to drill that into my head over the last few years because schools do not preach it in the US.

[mystiek]

You needed to add all of the above as an option. I guess travel would be our first choice, but I'm so tied down with a call schedule and my practice that we don't get alot of chances to wander out into the big world. I view investments as purchasing items that aren't really considered toys-like materials to make a rain water collection system, etc.

[cube]

I live in a walkable neighborhood.
While going for a stroll on the main road that has most of the shopping there was a sign advertising retail space for lease:

"60 days free rent"

I didn't read the fine print so who knows how many years the lease would have to be signed for but what difference does it make?
Whoever is brave enough or foolish would only last 1 year anyways in today's economy.
I think some of these retail spaces will be converted to residential as American's disposable income drops.

Napoleon Bonaparte once said: "England is a nation of shopkeepers."
I guess he had never been to the USA.