[Typical_Lurker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cbxer55', 'I') smoke hand-rolled cigars, the really good ones. I have smoked them for years, yet remain un-addicted. I usually go Monday through Friday without smoking any. Then Saturday and Sunday, may have one each day. Sometimes only one for the whole week, usually while out doing yard work. I know the ones I smoke are usually rolled from double or triple fermented leaves. The fermentation process eliminates most of the nicotine, so if double or triple fermented, I would guess it is a really low number. And I have absolutely no desire to quit. I smoke them in my leisure, knowing that when I light one, it'll take 90 minutes or more to finish. Goes great with a good book and a glass of fine liquor.
I'm so evil!

[s0cks]

I'd be surprised if you could get addicted to normals cigarettes if you only had 1 or 2 a week. These things usually start when people think its cool, so they smoke everyday. Anyway its a bit off-topic.

Regarding supermarket supplies during collapse. I would expect to see luxury items go first. You know, expensive stuff from thousands of miles away that you never use. Then that would filter down to more and more food as delivery costs got more expensive and incomes/demand dropped. In the end I would expect most foods to be made at least nationally (somewhere within 1's country) and probably locally. Fresh produce like meat and veg, will be the most local of the lot due to shelf life. It will also be in-season food (ex. winter and summer fruits).

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('s0cks', 'I')n the end I would expect most foods to be made at least nationally (somewhere within 1's country) and probably locally. Fresh produce like meat and veg, will be the most local of the lot due to shelf life. It will also be in-season food (ex. winter and summer fruits).

[cube]

I live in a walkable neighborhood in the city.
In fact there's literally a grocery store within 5 minutes walking distance from where I live. So naturally I've developed some "city habits" like going to the grocery store once every 2 days and keeping a ridiculously low inventory supply of food on hand. If Armageddon happened tomorrow morning I'm only 5 days away from resorting to cannibalism.

I'm a firm believer in PO and the great die-off, but I never understood some of the people on this site who have a fixation for hoarding 1,000 lbs worth of food and keeping it in long term storage. To each his own I guess. ^_^

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I')'m a firm believer in PO and the great die-off, but I never understood some of the people on this site who have a fixation for hoarding 1,000 lbs worth of food and keeping it in long term storage.

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I')'m a firm believer in PO and the great die-off, but I never understood some of the people on this site who have a fixation for hoarding 1,000 lbs worth of food and keeping it in long term storage.

[MidwesternMom]

Hi Mack,

Great post, keep up the good work, i found it rather interesting. Some thoughts on why sales were down for the fourth, perhaps less parties? Less people traveling to the lakes, less backyard barbeques, etc, because of the rise in gas? Personally, we did not have a family gathering and just went down the road to watch our town firework display. We may see alot of this during the holidays. People are traveling less, so grandma buys less food at the grocery store to feed the kids, etc. In our family we always overbuy too.

Also interesting in the trend on eating less meat. Do you think it is just fresh meat, or all meat in general? We are nearly vegetarian here, except we eat eggs, dairy and occasionally chicken, maybe a few times a month, so meat prices don't really have a big impact on us.

Also, I am curious if you are seeing a rise in couponing? I have started couponing in the past 6 months and since then i am finding good sale items w/coupons are frequently out of stock.

Where I live the largest grocery chain is locally owned and they tend to boast about getting a lot of produce/meat/dairy locally, but i still can find cheaper deals it seems at aldi's where the food comes from california and other places? What is up with that? I would think local food would be cheaper, but it doesn't always seem that way. Same with the farmers market, their prices seem rather high to me, so i don't buy there regularly as I have a budget to follow.

[Mack12345]

Hi MidwesternMom,
I am honored you enjoyed my post . Let me answer a couple of the questions that you brought up .

"Also interesting in the trend on eating less meat. Do you think it is just fresh meat, or all meat in general? "
In my little corner of south eastern tennessee , at my store and at the surrounding ones "I follow trends in food sales not only at my own store but the 3 nearest competitors as well ." I would have to say that the trend in meat is NOT that less money is being spent on meat .. insted its that the money spent on meat has been DRAMATICLY restructured on a wide scale by our consumers in a relitively short amount of time .
Sales of fresh meat have dropped by very wide margins , more than pretty much anyone i know has ever seen before .
While sales of canned meat products have jumped insanely ... forceing local stores includeing my own to take mesures to keep shelves from totaly emptying of canned meat items .
Examples of canned meat products are as follows "SPAM, canned chili, canned gravy, corned beef, ect ."
My store has trippled orders of SPAM "and its Great value brand equilivant" in the last 60 days just to keep shelves from becomeing empty of these now wildly popular products .

Also, I am curious if you are seeing a rise in couponing?
Somewhat of an increse yes .
I live in what would be called a poorer , rural area of the south . Not a lot of ritch folks around and the few we have that we consider ritch would prob be considered poverty stricken in a well to do area.
Some folks are cutting cupons but most just want to buy the Greatest possible amount of the cheepest possible alternitive to fill the need that they have .
IE "Wheres the cheepest Chili at sir ."
"Hey mack do you guys carry an off brand of condenced milk thats cheeper than this name brand ?"
I hear these kinds of questions from coustomers everyday on an increseing scale .

Anyway MidwesternMom I hope that i have shed some light on your questions !

regards .

[girlscout]

A newspaper article from my neck of the woods: Rough Economy Has Grocery Orders Shifting
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t might not be textbook economics, but grocery store owner John Brunetti measures the health of the economy with a simple gauge — hot dogs versus hamburgers.
For years, the bakery of Brunetti’s Shur-Save on North Main Avenue sold more than twice as many hamburger buns as hot dog buns, Mr. Brunetti said. Now, they are even.
The implication, he said, is that consumers are distressed and buying more of the cheaper hot dogs and less of the more-expensive ground beef hamburgers.
The shift started around Memorial Day, Mr. Brunetti said, and “blew us out of the water.”
“We always knew what to do,” Mr. Brunetti said. “And now we’re getting fooled.”

[JoeW]

Latest update from my supermarket:
Edy's ice cream container is now only 1.5 quarts! It used to be 1/2 gallon, then 1.75 quarts, and now this. I'd love to tell the clowns running Edy's what they can do with their quart-and-a-half containers.
Most other brands are 1.75 quarts. The half-gallon container of ice cream, as we knew it, is gone forever. One of life's simplest pleasures has been downsized by corporate greed.

[Gothor]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', 'L')atest update from my supermarket:
Edy's ice cream container is now only 1.5 quarts! It used to be 1/2 gallon, then 1.75 quarts, and now this. I'd love to tell the clowns running Edy's what they can do with their quart-and-a-half containers.
Most other brands are 1.75 quarts. The half-gallon container of ice cream, as we knew it, is gone forever. One of life's simplest pleasures has been downsized by corporate greed.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I')f Armageddon happened tomorrow morning I'm only 5 days away from resorting to cannibalism.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', 'L')atest update from my supermarket:
Edy's ice cream container is now only 1.5 quarts! It used to be 1/2 gallon, then 1.75 quarts, and now this.

[FoolYap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mack12345', 'I') would have to say that the trend in meat is NOT that less money is being spent on meat .. insted its that the money spent on meat has been DRAMATICLY restructured on a wide scale by our consumers in a relitively short amount of time .
Sales of fresh meat have dropped by very wide margins , more than pretty much anyone i know has ever seen before .
While sales of canned meat products have jumped insanely ... forceing local stores includeing my own to take mesures to keep shelves from totaly emptying of canned meat items .
Examples of canned meat products are as follows "SPAM, canned chili, canned gravy, corned beef, ect ."
My store has trippled orders of SPAM "and its Great value brand equilivant" in the last 60 days just to keep shelves from becomeing empty of these now wildly popular products .

[FoolYap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', 'L')atest update from my supermarket:
Edy's ice cream container is now only 1.5 quarts! It used to be 1/2 gallon, then 1.75 quarts, and now this. I'd love to tell the clowns running Edy's what they can do with their quart-and-a-half containers.
Most other brands are 1.75 quarts. The half-gallon container of ice cream, as we knew it, is gone forever. One of life's simplest pleasures has been downsized by corporate greed.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', 'T')he half-gallon container of ice cream, as we knew it, is gone forever. One of life's simplest pleasures has been downsized by corporate greed.

[MidwesternMom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', 'L')atest update from my supermarket:
Edy's ice cream container is now only 1.5 quarts! It used to be 1/2 gallon, then 1.75 quarts, and now this. I'd love to tell the clowns running Edy's what they can do with their quart-and-a-half containers.
Most other brands are 1.75 quarts. The half-gallon container of ice cream, as we knew it, is gone forever. One of life's simplest pleasures has been downsized by corporate greed.

[MidwesternMom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoolYap', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mack12345', 'I') would have to say that the trend in meat is NOT that less money is being spent on meat .. insted its that the money spent on meat has been DRAMATICLY restructured on a wide scale by our consumers in a relitively short amount of time .
Sales of fresh meat have dropped by very wide margins , more than pretty much anyone i know has ever seen before .
While sales of canned meat products have jumped insanely ... forceing local stores includeing my own to take mesures to keep shelves from totaly emptying of canned meat items .
Examples of canned meat products are as follows "SPAM, canned chili, canned gravy, corned beef, ect ."
My store has trippled orders of SPAM "and its Great value brand equilivant" in the last 60 days just to keep shelves from becomeing empty of these now wildly popular products .

[Mack12345]

"This is a curious thing. Unless the pricing is dramatically different in your region, Spam is not a cheap meat. So unless people are buying it to hoard large quantities of what they expect is a durable food (does Spam ever go bad??), then they're just plain stupid and/or lazy.

Whole roaster chickens, in the stores I shop in anyway, are still around $1.39/lb or less on sale. Spam works out to something over $3/lb, last time I checked. So WTF?? Are the folks buying Spam just too harried to find the time to roast up a chicken? Or do they think they're saving money, without ever doing the math? "

Did a little math on this ... in my area the price of a 12 oz can of spam runs as cheep as 2.12 and as high as 2.36 .
Indeed whole roster chickens are cheeper .. in the 1.40 per lb range .. as is Ground beef and turkey.
I think though as best as I can tell those are just about the only fresh meat products than can under-cut spam at this time .
Pork chops , Pork or beef roasts , Ribs , Steaks , ect are all much higher in price .
I do think some people choose spam over cheeper meats becase it lasts a longtime . Im not saying everyone is hording becase of a possible disaster "I know some are but not most by a strech" . Its easier to buy 3 cans of spam and toss them in the cubbord and forget about them .. esp if your a once a month fixed income shopper .Then 3 weeks later remove them at your lesiure 1 can at a time for a meal .
As opposed to buying/freezeing a whole roster chicken .. when then 3 weeks later needs to be thawed .. cooked "all at once" and then consumed in its entirety relitively quickly before it begins to spoil .
In short I would contend that it is the poorest amoungst us that are currently being driven to the beginings of desperation "mosly fixed income disabled/elderly" . For them I think that a canned meat "IE spam" is a more viable alternitive to some of the cheeper fresh meats .
Most of these people are mainly only feeding 1 or maybe 2 mouths .. so sometimes cooking a full chicken/turkey can seem counter productive .
This is only my opinion as to the why of the sudden spike of canned meats at the expence of fresh meats in my area . I can tell you factualy that is IS happening but my guesses at why are no better than anyones

Hope that is helpfull in some way .

regards .

[droper]

Yeah its all expected, but its not totally peak oil yet you still have a few years to get your shit in order to be prepared for the worse case.