Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Avian (Bird) Flu Thread Part 2 (merged)

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby Byron100 » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 13:21:01

If the majority of people were to stay at home during a pandemic for as long as a year, how would people pay bills? Or would the gov't just make everything "free", i.e, no rent payments, no mortgage payments, no utility bill payments, etc (like they'd be anyone in the processing centers to process payments anyhow...LOL.) They'd probably will have emergency food distribution centers in each neighborhood and so on and so forth, but I certainly wouldn't count on that. Stocking up is a never a bad idea, for anyone.

I tell you what, if I see that a pandemic is about to overtake the US, I'll be going into hyper charging mode, running up all the debt I could manage on preps...it's highly unlikely they'd be sending out collectors to try and get it all back when I don't pay the bill...bwawhaa. :twisted:

The sick and dying aside, a massive pandemic would be truly an awesome thing to see, as it'd surely grind our economic "system" into dust, ever to return again. To me, that's well worth the price of admission.
Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
User avatar
Byron100
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 973
Joined: Thu 08 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby skyemoor » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 13:40:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'I')f the majority of people were to stay at home during a pandemic for as long as a year, how would people pay bills?

Exactly the problem. Waves in any particular avian flu pandemic are are expected to last 6-12 weeks, with 3 waves considered plausible. Hence, no one is going to stay home the entire 18 months, but economic disruption would still be disastrous.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'I') tell you what, if I see that a pandemic is about to overtake the US, I'll be going into hyper charging mode, running up all the debt I could manage on preps...it's highly unlikely they'd be sending out collectors to try and get it all back when I don't pay the bill.

Expect everyone to do just the same thing, with online and catalog sales outlets completely swamped. There were times during the Turkish H2H flu scare where this already occurred, and some suppliers fell behind 2-3 months with back orders. Walton Feed is running behind 4-6 months as it is right now, with an order I placed in March just now being shipped.
http://www.carfree.com
http://ecoplan.org/carshare/cs_index.htm
http://www.velomobile.de/GB/Advantages/advantages.html

Chance favors the prepared mind. -- Louis Pasteur

He that lives upon hope will die fasting. --Benjamin Franklin
User avatar
skyemoor
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1512
Joined: Sat 16 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Appalachian Foothills of Virginia

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby mystiek » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 18:06:33

Just a thought about the Tamiflu-maybe you can ask your doctor for a rx for Tamiflu now. B.Tex is right-the "garden variety flu" can land you in the hospital very easily. I will also tell you that as a physician in the winter season, you will see ER's packed and some hospitals full to where they are on diversion. Now, imagine a pandemic-very letheal avian flu hitting-in most areas our health care system will be overrun, health care workers that didn't take proper precautions (vaccines, tamiflu, etc) sick and unable to work-I dread the thought. The best thing to do is prepare now. I asked one of the drug reps that wandered through our office peddling Flumist (nasal spray instead of the flu shot) about plans for bird flu vaccines and she said that they believe that Flumist may have some protective properties against the bird flu. I haven't seen anything official so its not something you can count on-but the point is that the drug mfgs are definitely looking at it. Preventative measures such as good hand washing, etc is always important too.
User avatar
mystiek
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue 20 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Tennessee

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby Homesteader » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 19:40:42

One of the issues with H5N1 is the cytokine storm it causes in the body. The virologists etc. . . who study this feel that is one of the main causes behind why the death rate is higher in young people. Young people (say 10 to 30) have stronger immune systems which causes a stronger cytokine storm which then overwhelms the body.

Something like elderberry extract which strengthens the immune system may actually be counterproductive.

Lots of this type of info. on Plandemic Flu Information at

https://www.singtomeohmuse.com/
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill

Beliefs are what people fall back on when the facts make them uncomfortable.
User avatar
Homesteader
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1856
Joined: Thu 12 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Economic Nomad

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby Homesteader » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 19:50:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', 'A') pandemic is expected to come in waves and last up to two years.

To quote the Head of New Jersey Homeland Security: "You won't be going to work, you will be in your homes for a year trying to stay alive."


In context was that homeland security guy being serious (you should be prepared to stay in your home for a year) or taking a dig at those people planning on trying to hold up in their home?quote]

This is a better quote:



"You're going to be staying home for one year. There will be no school, there will be no work. All we'll be doing is trying to keep ourselves alive." - Richard Canas, director of the New Jersey State Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness

Link: http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/03/big-chill.html
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill

Beliefs are what people fall back on when the facts make them uncomfortable.
User avatar
Homesteader
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1856
Joined: Thu 12 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Economic Nomad

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 20:16:37

That would be fine from my point of view... a great way to dry run... I might, however, be mandated to show up for my job, even though my job description would not be needed... the institution would be looking for available hands... my running joke with my co-workers (I work at a hospital) that it would be my job to dump the bodies in the river (the hospital sits on about 200 yards of riverfront).

I'm sure they would get us a dump truck. :)
User avatar
wisconsin_cur
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4576
Joined: Thu 10 May 2007, 03:00:00
Location: 45 degrees North. 883 feet above sealevel.

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby Ludi » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 20:28:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', ' ')it would be my job to dump the bodies in the river

Oh now that is just irresponsible!
Ludi
 
Top

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby Consensi » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 20:34:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skyemoor', 'I')f the attack and mortality rate approaches or exceeds the 1918 flu pandemic, people will be staying home out of overwhelming concern for their family. The Bush Administration was trying to change this mindset by talking about 'distancing' at work, washing hands, and coughing in a socially acceptable manner, none of which would be widespread enough to do much to slow the spread (e.g., it only takes one person in a lobby/elevator/floor forgetting to cover their mouth).

I agree with this assessment. Bush's 'distancing' ideas are
juvenile to say the least.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow that it looks like a pandemic won't happen during Bush's tenure

Why not ? Because he only has six months to go ?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n recognition of this, Chertoff recently said;$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')... It can be hours or days before we realize the full extent of an incident. And, on top of that, depending on whether it is a natural event or a manmade event, our modeling ability with respect to analyzing the course of the epidemic or pandemic will be profoundly effected, because we have built a series of public health models based on the idea that we know how ordinary diseases spread and how they circulate among populations. ... But if someone is moving around the country with an aerosol tank, spraying it all over different places, that's going to be a very different model.

I often wonder why folks who prep for a disaster generally only prep for one. Those concerned about Bird Flu only prep for Bird Flu. Those concerned about war with Iran only prep for war. Those concerned about PO prep with that primarily in mind.

I agree that one should prep for a series of disasters that could cascade from one. The most immediate is war with Iran. All out open war would see the blockage of the Gulf of Hormuz through which 24 to 27% of the world energy flows. That leads to extreme oil shortages worldwide. Week economies take a further hit, some collapse.

Iran and its sympathisers launch terror attacks against the US mainland. Biological or chemical. Or even Nuke. That leads to natural pandemics aggravated by manmade.

Peak Oil continues its steady pace. From there it just spirals out of control. I am prepping for the worst and very long term.
Consensi
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 112
Joined: Wed 28 May 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 20:39:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', ' ')it would be my job to dump the bodies in the river
Oh now that is just irresponsible!

And it is that joke, however, that finally gets people's attention.
User avatar
wisconsin_cur
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4576
Joined: Thu 10 May 2007, 03:00:00
Location: 45 degrees North. 883 feet above sealevel.
Top

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby mystiek » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 22:02:27

I don't want to get bumped to the die-off thread, but I wonder how well we are prepared to handle numerous deaths from a pandemic. You see on the news the aftermath of a natural disaster and they end up using mass graves. Its really chilling to think about it....Time to get some tamiflu and garlic (I heard it helps too...)
User avatar
mystiek
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue 20 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Tennessee

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby Ferretlover » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 22:19:59

Just tossing this into the mix: In a few years, with the loss of air travel, and limited resources for other forms of travel, the speed of spread might be slowed down. Does that sound logical?
Does anyone here know anyone who might be involved on an Outbreak Team?
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
Ferretlover
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 5852
Joined: Wed 13 Jun 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Hundreds of miles further inland

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby mystiek » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 22:26:54

Sounds like a logical conclusion, but lets hope things have slowed down before the pandemic hits. In my infectious disease magazines that I look through spoke of the flu cases being complicated with secondary infections like MRSA. I see so much MRSA anymore-its a scarey double wamy.
User avatar
mystiek
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue 20 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Tennessee

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby Ferretlover » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 22:43:30

Just googled "respirators." This site, Grainger , had 603 entries-some in stock now, now "while supplies last." (disclaimer: I have never purchased from that site, and I am not connected with it in anyway). I had no idea there were so many different types.
My great-grandmother died during 1919 flu epedemic; my grandmother, who was 20 at the time, said she was only sick for a few days before she died.

Edit: fixed link
Last edited by Ferretlover on Sat 13 Dec 2008, 11:18:40, edited 2 times in total.
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
Ferretlover
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 5852
Joined: Wed 13 Jun 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Hundreds of miles further inland

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby threadbear » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 22:55:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'T')he 1918 flu outbreak should be studied by anyone who is seriously interested in what TSHTF scenarios in an industrialized society actually look like.

It's different than you think.

I linked to an excellent free online book about the history and possible future of flu pandemics in the overpopulation thread. Take a look at it if you have a chance.

BTW, a flu pandemic would likely take the young and strong in disproportionate numbers because of the way the virus infects your system. Thus, eating right and being physically fit could be irrelevant to one's survival chances.

The most common sense thing to do today, IMO, is stock up on N95 or N100 respirators, nitrile gloves, hand sanitizer and bleach. Even a rumor of an outbreak and you won't be able to find that stuff anywhere.

Tamiflu is a good idea if you can get it.

A good comfortable set of safety glasses is a good idea too. These are helpful in a variety of unpleasant scenarios.

There is reason to believe that a vaccine could be developed within six months of an outbreak, so I would think that getting through the first few months would be the most critical.

These 50 million dead estimates are silly. There would probably be more than that in India alone.


If the flu triggers the young and healthy, it likely means that it causes a cascading immune reaction, that can be fatal in and of itself. People with mildly suppressed immune systems would fare best in that case. Tamiflu, if I am correct, upgrades your immune system, so it would be unwise to take it for every flu. An idiot doctor gave it to my friend last year and it made her much worse. He admitted it was the drug that was responsible for nearly sending her to the emergency ward. I could have told the nitwit, she has an illness with autoimmune features already, so was a poor candidate, imho.
User avatar
threadbear
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7577
Joined: Sat 22 Jan 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby HEADER_RACK » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 23:25:52

There are lots of respirators out on the market. The key is in the cartridges you buy to put in them. You would want to get a hepa filter cartridge with a prefilter. 3m or campo half face resprators are pretty good. Cartridges last only so long and must be replaced. Approx. every 12 hours of use. Meaning 12 hours of constant breathing through the cartridge.
Respirators will only work if they are properly fitted to your face. No beards or goatees. Once on cover the cartridges with your hand and suck in. The respirator should collapse to the face. Then cover the exhast port and blow out. The respirator should expand around the mouth. If it doesn't do either of these you have a poor fit and it's allowing outside air to bypass the cartridges. If you really want to check get some perfume and spray in front of the respirator if you smell it. You need to adjust it.
Just a helpful tip.
Nothing is more dangerous than a man with nothing left to lose but has everything left to gain.
User avatar
HEADER_RACK
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 452
Joined: Thu 15 Feb 2007, 04:00:00

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby mystiek » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 23:30:55

Your correct threadbear there has been some adverse effects assoc. with Tamiflu-reports I have read in the literature (pediatric) have mostly been assoc. with abnl behavior. Of course this is true with any medication-there's risks/benefits to be assessed.My oldest son came down with the flu and was rx Tamiflu within the first 48 hours and he did really well. If there was a bird flu outbreak and I had a choice of Tamiflu verses being in the back of Wisconsin-Cur's dump truck on my way to the river, I'll take my chances with the Tamiflu-but that is just my personal choice.
User avatar
mystiek
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue 20 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Tennessee

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby RedStateGreen » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 23:47:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mystiek', 'I') don't want to get bumped to the die-off thread, but I wonder how well we are prepared to handle numerous deaths from a pandemic. You see on the news the aftermath of a natural disaster and they end up using mass graves. Its really chilling to think about it....Time to get some tamiflu and garlic (I heard it helps too...)

Yes, garlic is antiviral, and I would take some (a pill-sized piece raw ought to do it) the minute I started feeling sick. If you're on aspirin or blood thinners I guess you shouldn't take a lot as garlic has a blood thinner effect, but otherwise garlic is very safe, only other side effect is upset stomach if you're not used to it and bad breath .... :roll:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
User avatar
RedStateGreen
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1859
Joined: Sun 16 Sep 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Oklahoma, USA
Top

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby mystiek » Tue 22 Jul 2008, 11:10:00

RSG-great! Just a couple of questions-pill size-like what my patient's call "horse pills?" or smaller? How often is it recommended to take it? I am making an attempt at growing garlic primarily for medicinal purposes.
User avatar
mystiek
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue 20 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Tennessee

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby Homesteader » Tue 22 Jul 2008, 11:43:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', ' ')it would be my job to dump the bodies in the river
Oh now that is just irresponsible!

That is what they routinely do in Inda, Bangladesh, Indonesia etc. . . with the massive poultry kills due to H5N1.
Here is a link to worldwide poultry/bird infections and human infections: link
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill

Beliefs are what people fall back on when the facts make them uncomfortable.
User avatar
Homesteader
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1856
Joined: Thu 12 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Economic Nomad
Top

Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.

Postby RedStateGreen » Tue 22 Jul 2008, 12:31:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mystiek', 'R')SG-great! Just a couple of questions-pill size-like what my patient's call "horse pills?" or smaller? How often is it recommended to take it? I am making an attempt at growing garlic primarily for medicinal purposes.

I've seen recommendations from a quarter clove (the size of a typical gel-cap or normal elongated pill) to a clove a day. If you've never had it before I'd go smaller, as it can do a number on your stomach if you're not used to it. When I think I'm getting the flu usually one quarter-clove dose will do the trick.

Eating it regularly in normal food, even cooked, will help (grandma's chicken soup, anyone?), but raw is the best.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
User avatar
RedStateGreen
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1859
Joined: Sun 16 Sep 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Oklahoma, USA
Top

PreviousNext

Return to Medical Issues Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest