by Nicholai » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 19:51:38
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hen use a specific % of decline. Random numbers becomes confusing to the reader.
Sorry about that, but until OPEC opens up the books, we really have no time line to deal with.
Don't mean to make you dig for it Monte, but do you have a link for the 48% increase in the cost of solar?
Look at this, I'll be only a border away from Mr. Simmons!
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')Oil clocks out
In short, as Mr Simmons readily concedes, the debate between proponents and critics of “peak oil” boils down to an argument about timing. The optimists think that technology will advance quickly enough to offset declining production from mammoth fields such as those Mr Simmons studied in Saudi Arabia. But he and his disciples think the declines will come too soon, and be too sharp, for the world to adapt in time. The whole row could easily be solved, he says, if Saudi Arabia would only allow independent auditors to assess its reserves.
In the meantime, Mr Simmons is taking no chances. He plans to start up a farm near his house in Maine, in case the supply chain that provides America with food breaks down for lack of fuel. He plans to fertilise his fields with manure, rather than chemicals derived from oil and natural gas. He thinks globalisation must stop, and that as much trade as possible should be conducted by boat, to conserve whatever oil remains.
But Mr Simmons has not despaired. He holds out great hope for wave energy, and believes that at least one of the many different species of seaweed found along Maine’s coast will yield oil that can be turned into biofuel. He has got Simmons & Company involved in alternative energy. It is a brave choice for someone who is so pessimistic about technology.
I used to fervently believe that renewables were the perfect solution (2 or 3 years ago) to climate change (wasn't yet peak oil aware). Now I see that a renewable economy in isolation has never really existed (except for a tiny island in Denmark) and to gamble that these technologies can bring stability to billions is to assume too much. We can guarantee that localized permaculture communities can exist and will not put the lives of billions all into the basket of techno-fixes.