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Re: Tackeling the Cornocopians

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 17:08:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')Bush's budget cut solar assistance credits.


Back in the real world:

January 04, 2007
President Bush Approves One-Year Energy Tax Credit Extension
President Bush approved a bill on December 20th that will extend federal tax credits for renewable energy and energy efficiency projects. The wide-ranging Tax Relief and Health Care Act of 2006 extends the production tax credit through 2008
for electricity produced from wind power, geothermal power, biomass, landfill gas, small irrigation power, and trash combustion facilities. It provides a similar one-year tax credit extension for new properties that produce geothermal power or make use of solar energy; for homeowners that purchase solar water heating, solar photovoltaic, or fuel cell systems; for businesses that purchase fiber-optic lighting systems, solar energy systems, or fuel cell power plants; for new energy efficient homes; and for energy efficiency improvements to commercial buildings.

If you are concerned that Congress won't pass a bill to extend the solar tax credits past 2008, then I suggest you contact Nancy Pelosi and the dems who currently control Congress, and ask the current "do-nothing" 109th Congress to extend the solar credits. Under our 225 year old system of constitutional government, Presidents can't write laws or pass budgets and tax bills or extend tax credits....only the Congress can do that. :)
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby Nicholai » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 19:51:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hen use a specific % of decline. Random numbers becomes confusing to the reader.


Sorry about that, but until OPEC opens up the books, we really have no time line to deal with.

Don't mean to make you dig for it Monte, but do you have a link for the 48% increase in the cost of solar?

Look at this, I'll be only a border away from Mr. Simmons!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Oil clocks out

In short, as Mr Simmons readily concedes, the debate between proponents and critics of “peak oil” boils down to an argument about timing. The optimists think that technology will advance quickly enough to offset declining production from mammoth fields such as those Mr Simmons studied in Saudi Arabia. But he and his disciples think the declines will come too soon, and be too sharp, for the world to adapt in time. The whole row could easily be solved, he says, if Saudi Arabia would only allow independent auditors to assess its reserves.

In the meantime, Mr Simmons is taking no chances. He plans to start up a farm near his house in Maine, in case the supply chain that provides America with food breaks down for lack of fuel. He plans to fertilise his fields with manure, rather than chemicals derived from oil and natural gas. He thinks globalisation must stop, and that as much trade as possible should be conducted by boat, to conserve whatever oil remains.

But Mr Simmons has not despaired. He holds out great hope for wave energy, and believes that at least one of the many different species of seaweed found along Maine’s coast will yield oil that can be turned into biofuel. He has got Simmons & Company involved in alternative energy. It is a brave choice for someone who is so pessimistic about technology.


I used to fervently believe that renewables were the perfect solution (2 or 3 years ago) to climate change (wasn't yet peak oil aware). Now I see that a renewable economy in isolation has never really existed (except for a tiny island in Denmark) and to gamble that these technologies can bring stability to billions is to assume too much. We can guarantee that localized permaculture communities can exist and will not put the lives of billions all into the basket of techno-fixes.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 23:43:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')Bush's budget cut solar assistance credits.


Back in the real world:


Still, Bush's proposed 2009 budget cuts funding for the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) program by 27%.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 23:50:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', ' ')Don't mean to make you dig for it Monte, but do you have a link for the 48% increase in the cost of solar?


Wind, not solar. And I was in error, it was 74% for on-shore and 48% for off-shore.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')rices spiked by 74 percent for land-bound wind turbines and by 48 percent for offshore turbines in the last three years, according to research by BTM Consult APS of Denmark, as reported by Treehugger.


http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-99548 ... l?hhTest=1
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby allenwrench » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 20:41:10

Here is a thread you can practice your debate skills. Lots of 'copians

Or if your a 'copian lurker, join and bash the PO'ers..which are in the minority.

http://push.pickensplan.com/forum/topic ... c%3A137397

In short we have to work with what is and not fantasy that the 'copians promote.

With wishful thinking we can make up all sorts of dream worlds to escape the realities of life in.

I find 'copians do not like to stay in the present, but are predisposed to the future...far..far away.

Humans die in 30 days without food...we can't wait 20 years for our next meal...well maybe 'copians can?
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Re: Tackeling the Cornocopians

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 01:46:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'B')ut I'll play along. Ok guys, about when is this "great die off" supposed to happen?
When places at subsistence levels have double food prices? Like now?
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Re: Tackeling the Cornocopians

Unread postby VMarcHart » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 08:08:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'B')ut I'll play along. Ok guys, about when is this "great die off" supposed to happen?
When places at subsistence levels have double food prices? Like now?
And what is the metric?
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Re: Tackeling the Cornocopians

Unread postby VMarcHart » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 10:02:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattS', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'B')ut I'll play along. Ok guys, about when is this "great die off" supposed to happen?
When places at subsistence levels have double food prices? Like now?
So you are saying higher food prices = death generally, or only in places already stricken with poverty?
And I add again, what's the metric? 10 people/day? 1,000 people/week?
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 17:21:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'I')'ve heard an argument recently that ammonia production from electrolysis can create fertilizer...and therefore, we won't need to rely on fossil fuels to support the 6.7 billion people on this planet. I'd like someone to expand on this a little bit more. Especially Monte Quest.

Here is one link I've been offered: link
That site has never addressed the issue of scale for any alternatives.

Electrolysis is also touted as a way to build the hydrogen economy, using clean sources of hydrogen. So expect competition between these two uses for any hydrogen produced via electrolysis. In combination, I don't expect hydrogen from electrolysis to scale, for either use.

There may also be an issue of clean water for the electrolysis, though that might be alleviated by building plants only near reliable sources of large quantities of fresh water.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 17:44:49

So the die-off is already happening? :?
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby skyemoor » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 19:18:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', 'S')o the die-off is already happening? :?


Haven't you heard? Food is plentiful and cheap. Keep watching FauxNews...
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby outcast » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 12:38:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd I add again, what's the metric? 10 people/day? 1,000 people/week?



Something reasonable for a worldwide famine. A lot more than 10 people die everyday in the world because of other things (injury, sickness, old age).


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'n') short we have to work with what is and not fantasy that the 'copians promote.

With wishful thinking we can make up all sorts of dream worlds to escape the realities of life in.

I find 'copians do not like to stay in the present, but are predisposed to the future...far..far away.

Humans die in 30 days without food...we can't wait 20 years for our next meal...well maybe 'copians can?


But the reality is that all the oil is not just going to vanish overnight. Even if we hit the peak tomorrow it would still take many years, maybe even a decade or longer (depending on what conservation measures are put into effect) for it to become severe enough to destroy modern agriculture. If it was clear that this issue wasn't going to go away. do you really think we cant come up with something in 10-20 years?

And you know, the reason "'copians" exist is because the doomers have been making the prophecies of doom for decades, centuries even, and none of them have come true. "The great die off" was supposed to happen decades ago, and it didn't. I'd say the "'copians" have a pretty good track record so far.
Last edited by outcast on Wed 16 Jul 2008, 12:55:02, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby Nicholai » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 14:56:20

MQ has shown that the cost of renewables will continue to escalate with the increasing cost of oil.

I'd like to have some input on the long term.

We tend to focus on the United States on this forum but I'd like to shift this question to China, India, Indonesia etc.

Will nations dive for debt to increase the production of renewables or simply ride the economic slope of $250 oil?

Gazprom has predicted $250 a barrel for 2009. I don't even know what to say about that scenario. Growth would be a word for the history books in that case.

Thoughts?
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Re: Tackeling the Cornocopians

Unread postby VMarcHart » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 19:14:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattS', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hen I read 'metric' instead of 'measure' I sometimes want to gag.
Why?
It's kind of like people saying 'methodology' instead of 'method,' showoffy, unnecessary, and is usually a sign the sentence is more for appearance then content.
It must be hard to be so smart among so many dumb people.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby Nicholai » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 20:07:57

VMarcHart

I had the same problem.

This was given to me by a former English teacher

Politics and the English Language by George Orwell
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 15:22:33

I just realized that all the talk about EVs is just more cornucopian blather. All the fossil fuels used for electricity generation are in peak except for coal which is way too polluting to burn more.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby AgentR » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 16:28:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', 'i')n peak except for coal which is way too polluting to burn more.


You mean to say.. too polluting to burn more while we are comfortable enough to care about such things.

Trust me... we're gonna burn it all.
Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
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