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Re: Tackeling the Cornocopians

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby Dezakin » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 18:13:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'W')hen we peak in petroleum supply, the road gets VERY bumpy. Even if natural gas supplies last for 50 years AT CURRENT RATES OF CONSUMPTION, to assume that the world could continue at present rates of food production with any realm of stability is absolutely ludicrous.
I dont see why. Coal supplies are fairly well assured for long enough. The depletion model for coal fields is closer to log normal than oil fields so you have a more gradual plateau that throws signals strong enough for nuclear power plant vendors to come in.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')on't you remember the Barcelona protests just 3 months ago? When petrol was too expensive, truckers protested and blocked off the city. In return, the grocery stores and gas stations were empty within 2-3 days! Police were escorting oil tankers and grocery supplies through the picket lines.

Oh boy. Some truckers acting likeObjectionable text deleted. causes disruption. I'm not sure how you take that as a prophetic signal, but all right then.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne thing is certain, when the instability of peak oil takes hold, our mentality of exuberance will be quickly changed. Star Wars was a movie...not a reality.....
Why are you so hot on Star Wars anyways?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen you deny that humanity will be constricted by ecological limits within 'a few centuries' I can't take you seriously. You don't give me any basis to debate you on. You simply state a random opinion and you wonder why I don't confront you and simply call you an idiot.
I back my opinions up with long term trends and demonstrable technologies. If you think I'm an idiot because I have a different opinion than you, the world to you must be filled with idiots.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne last question, did you ever go to university?

My, you are being superior today arent you...

Here, I'll make you feel better about yourself. Imagine I'm a highschool dropout who reads comic books to get opinions on the future direction of the world, I'm fat, lazy, have buck teeth and live in my parents basement at the ripe age of 40 without ever getting a girlfriend, and I'm certainly not university educated.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby Nicholai » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 19:30:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', ' ')I dont see why. Coal supplies are fairly well assured for long enough. The depletion model for coal fields is closer to log normal than oil fields so you have a more gradual plateau that throws signals strong enough for nuclear power plant vendors to come in.
You avoided the question. It's not about coal supplies, it's about a critical resource in major depletion and the geopolitical instability thereafter. When wheat prices went through the roof (due to increased commodity prices/biofuels/crop failures/speculation) , how long did it take for countries like China and India to ban the export of staple food crops?

India Bans Rice Exports

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'O')h boy. Some truckers acting like Objectionable text deleted. causes disruption. I'm not sure how you take that as a prophetic signal, but all right then.

"Truckers being Objectionable text deleted. " That's not even worth a comment.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'W')hy are you so hot on Star Wars anyways?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'I') dont see how that can happen. If we dont die off in the next 50 years, benign demographic transition takes over and the population stabilizes at about 10-12 billion for another 50 years. Then the AI revolution makes everything unpredictable as all of civilization becomes cybernetic and the whole die-off meme becomes meaningless.
You live in a fantasy land. There is no debating you.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'M')y, you are being superior today arent you...

Here, I'll make you feel better about yourself. Imagine I'm a highschool dropout who reads comic books to get opinions on the future direction of the world, I'm fat, lazy, have buck teeth and live in my parents basement at the ripe age of 40 without ever getting a girlfriend, and I'm certainly not university educated.

That wasn't my reasoning behind the question. Every post you make is a spew of meaningless opinion and unfounded assumptions. You can link me graphs of increased global coal extraction or ammonia production from nuclear....but you fail to see the bigger picture. If you want to get into that debate, we're really just beating a dead horse.

Is there a mod reading this by chance, I'd like to know how the ignore list works?
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby Dezakin » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 19:40:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'Y')ou live in a fantasy land. There is no debating you.
Technology marches on weather you think its fantasyland or not. Exactly why do you think the world is unlikely to be heavily influenced by AI in 200 years? Collapse of civilization, or that its a physical impossibility in spite of having operating physical models (humans) to work from?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'M')y, you are being superior today arent you... Here, I'll make you feel better about yourself. --snip--
That wasn't my reasoning behind the question. Every post you make is a spew of meaningless opinion and unfounded assumptions.
The big picture is the future of human civilization; Oh sure we can demonstrate why energy isn't a problem over millions of years because we can demonstrate nuclear power to be sustainable that long, and the example that France sets shows you can run entire countries electric grid nearly entirely off of nuclear power. Assuming that technology is going to stand still and we'll be utilizing 1950's farming techniques to erode the worlds topsoil until 12 billion people starve to death doesn't produce a very convincing future scenario either.
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