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Re: Tackeling the Cornocopians

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby VMarcHart » Mon 18 Aug 2008, 20:08:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '.')..I dare you to refute Catton...
Et tu?
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby Dezakin » Mon 18 Aug 2008, 20:21:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'Y')ou'll die of old age before you see a population decline. Or even a decline in global living standards.
Dezakin and I disagree on numerous things, but here's one that we do agree. My view: we're going to come up with the next "invention", the next gadget, the next dooheekey that will prolong the inevitable, and then boom ... die-off. I wish for sensate and cool heads, but knowing the little I know about us, I don't see it. Sad, isn't it?

I dont see how that can happen. If we dont die off in the next 50 years, benign demographic transition takes over and the population stabilizes at about 10-12 billion for another 50 years. Then the AI revolution makes everything unpredictable as all of civilization becomes cybernetic and the whole die-off meme becomes meaningless.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby yesplease » Mon 18 Aug 2008, 20:35:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '.')..I dare you to refute Catton...
Et tu?
I wish someone would actually post up the work the reference the most. I suppose it isn't surprising since significant flaws have been found in quite a few other sources but I can't say I wouldn't be pleasantly surprised if for once there wasn't something sticking out.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby Nicholai » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 14:26:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '-')-snip-- And I honestly dont expect civilization to be controlled by beings subject to the limits of biology in several centuries.
You're hopeless.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby Nicholai » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 14:27:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')I dont see how that can happen. If we dont die off in the next 50 years, benign demographic transition takes over and the population stabilizes at about 10-12 billion for another 50 years. Then the AI revolution makes everything unpredictable as all of civilization becomes cybernetic and the whole die-off meme becomes meaningless.


At least you have a sense of humor.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby Nicholai » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 14:28:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'T')ick tock, tick tock. Time is of the essence.
Absolutely 1,000,000% agreed. However, nothing of magnitude, whether accentuated problems or beginning of a solution will happen before 10-20 years. We'll see the population double before the masses really embrace population and standard of living controls.


Why?
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby Nicholai » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 14:36:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'Y')ou'll die of old age before you see a population decline. Or even a decline in global living standards.
Dezakin and I disagree on numerous things, but here's one that we do agree. My view: we're going to come up with the next "invention", the next gadget, the next dooheekey that will prolong the inevitable, and then boom ... die-off. I wish for sensate and cool heads, but knowing the little I know about us, I don't see it. Sad, isn't it?


Did you ever go to university or college?

These responses are just wasting our time...n'est pas?
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby Nicholai » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 14:38:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '.')..I dare you to refute Catton...
Et tu?


It's "Et toi?"

But I'll give you credit for trying :D

I'm in the process of finishing "Overshoot" but his logic is clear and his conclusions are sound. It's a wonderful piece of writing.....so far....

I'll make sure to let you know once I'm finished.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby Nicholai » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 14:41:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '.')..I dare you to refute Catton...
Et tu?
I wish someone would actually post up the work the reference the most. I suppose it isn't surprising since significant flaws have been found in quite a few other sources but I can't say I wouldn't be pleasantly surprised if for once there wasn't something sticking out.


Again, nothing of substance was stated.

We could waste our time...
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby Dezakin » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 14:43:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '.')..I dare you to refute Catton...
Et tu?


It's "Et toi?"

But I'll give you credit for trying :D

There are a couple of other languages besides English and French, some that are old and in some famous plays.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby Dezakin » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 14:48:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'Y')ou're hopeless.

So you dont actually have anything to discuss then, do you?
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby VMarcHart » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 14:49:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'T')ick tock, tick tock. Time is of the essence.
Absolutely 1,000,000% agreed. However, nothing of magnitude, whether accentuated problems or beginning of a solution will happen before 10-20 years. We'll see the population double before the masses really embrace population and standard of living controls.
Why?
1. Despite famine, AIDS, the bird flu, and other horrible diseases, the population is still growing and it doesn't look like it's reaching a plateau. Nothing new there, and the phantom carrying capacity will pick up the slack. 2. There's no iPod of energies ready to be launched and acquired by millions over the 7 continents. There will be numerous miracle gadgets, but you know where those will lead us. So status quo there too. Life will continue for the next 20 years with a few spikes, memorable and catastrophic events, but nothing overly different than now. Then the brick wall.

Please don't ask for scientific evidence, for I have none; just my pinky.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby VMarcHart » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 14:56:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '.')..I dare you to refute Catton...
Et tu?
It's "Et toi?"
C'est du latin, espece d'imbecile! Ca veut dire que toi aussi a commence a lecher le cul d'un con que tu ne connais pas. Putin, le cretin!
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby yesplease » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 15:29:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '.')..I dare you to refute Catton...
Et tu?
I wish someone would actually post up the work the reference the most. I suppose it isn't surprising since significant flaws have been found in quite a few other sources but I can't say I wouldn't be pleasantly surprised if for once there wasn't something sticking out.


Again, nothing of substance was stated.

We could waste our time...
It's pretty much been that way for the past few posts. Hey, instead of linking to youtube, why not scan/post Catton's work? That'd definitely be something of substance. :)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby Nicholai » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 15:34:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'Y')ou're hopeless.

So you dont actually have anything to discuss then, do you?


Are you 12? Does your Mom dress you?

The brainless comments you put forward should not be keeping me in front of this computer on such a sunny day.

There's nothing to discuss with someone like you.

And stop taking Star Wars so seriously.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby Nicholai » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 15:47:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '.')..I dare you to refute Catton...
Et tu?
I wish someone would actually post up the work the reference the most. I suppose it isn't surprising since significant flaws have been found in quite a few other sources but I can't say I wouldn't be pleasantly surprised if for once there wasn't something sticking out.


Again, nothing of substance was stated.

We could waste our time...
It's pretty much been that way for the past few posts. Hey, instead of linking to youtube, why not scan/post Catton's work? That'd definitely be something of substance. :)

Go to google books and read it yourself. It's not a newspaper clipping, some books need to read in entirety before they can be critiqued. I'm going to sit on the deck and try to finish it :D
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby yesplease » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 16:15:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'G')o to google books and read it yourself. It's not a newspaper clipping, some books need to read in entirety before they can be critiqued. I'm going to sit on the deck and try to finish it :D
Google books doesn't have it in it's entirety, just a preview unfortunately. There are chapters here and there on the interweb but nothing complete AFAIK.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby Dezakin » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 17:14:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'Y')ou're hopeless.

So you dont actually have anything to discuss then, do you?


Are you 12? Does your Mom dress you?

The brainless comments you put forward should not be keeping me in front of this computer on such a sunny day.

There's nothing to discuss with someone like you.

And stop taking Star Wars so seriously.

Is this really the direction you want to take this discussion, into grade-school insults? You've never actually adressed my views with anything except ad-hominems.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby Nicholai » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 17:46:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'Y')ou're hopeless.

So you dont actually have anything to discuss then, do you?


Are you 12? Does your Mom dress you?

The brainless comments you put forward should not be keeping me in front of this computer on such a sunny day.

There's nothing to discuss with someone like you.

And stop taking Star Wars so seriously.

Is this really the direction you want to take this discussion, into grade-school insults? You've never actually adressed my views with anything except ad-hominems.


Depletion models in our elephant fields do not suggest a peaking in world oil production in ten or 20 years, it suggests a peaking within the next 3-5 years. Cantarel is drying up, offshore rigs are on a 25 year waiting list, Norway is losing strength, England is now an oil importer, Russia peaked a long time ago and TaTa motors plans to release the world's cheapest car as of this November.....what will oil consumption look like when the 3 billion people of the industrializing world can now afford a car?

When we peak in petroleum supply, the road gets VERY bumpy. Even if natural gas supplies last for 50 years AT CURRENT RATES OF CONSUMPTION, to assume that the world could continue at present rates of food production with any realm of stability is absolutely ludicrous. Don't you remember the Barcelona protests just 3 months ago? When petrol was too expensive, truckers protested and blocked off the city. In return, the grocery stores and gas stations were empty within 2-3 days! Police were escorting oil tankers and grocery supplies through the picket lines.

I'm not advocating that we will see a 'crash and burn' scenario BUT, I will say that to assume a steady growth in population LONG after a peak in petroleum supply is impossible to prove. An OPEC embargo on a global scale will turn open doors into isolationist protectorates. Food exporters may decide to hoard instead of export. Nations with fertile soils may turn their crops into biofuels when petrol supplies run short.....the host of scenarios is limitless....

One thing is certain, when the instability of peak oil takes hold, our mentality of exuberance will be quickly changed. Star Wars was a movie...not a reality.....

When you deny that humanity will be constricted by ecological limits within 'a few centuries' I can't take you seriously. You don't give me any basis to debate you on. You simply state a random opinion and you wonder why I don't confront you and simply call you an idiot.

One last question, did you ever go to university?
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Postby Nicholai » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 17:49:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'G')o to google books and read it yourself. It's not a newspaper clipping, some books need to read in entirety before they can be critiqued. I'm going to sit on the deck and try to finish it :D
Google books doesn't have it in it's entirety, just a preview unfortunately. There are chapters here and there on the interweb but nothing complete AFAIK.


I ordered the book from Chapters and it was at my doorstep within a week. It really is a good read. I usually read it in pages of 10. It's just so unconventional I usually need a few minutes to process and understand what I've just read. It'll leave you thinking long into the evening, just the way I like it :D
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