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How Long Do We Have?

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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby BigTex » Sat 05 Jul 2008, 11:42:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', '
')Since societies are adaptive systems those plateaus will give people time to adjust or just let the frog get used to the new water temp.


There are plenty of historical examples indicating that civilized societies don't tend to adapt very well to changing conditions. They tend to collapse, especially the very complex ones.

Maybe our ultra-complex civilization will prove to be unusually adaptable. I don't know there's much evidence that it will be. Humans may be adaptable, but I'm not convinced our society is.


The thing that has been gnawing at me lately is what would actually happen in a hard stock market crash.

First, individuals' 401(k) accounts would be shredded and all of their future plans would be mostly destroyed.

Second, for companies with pension plans, the unanticipated decline in equity values would dramatically increase their funding obligations, and thereby severely depress their earnings (apart from whatever other factors might also be depressing their earnings).

Third, in response to lower corporate earnings for hundreds of companies as a result of the increased pension liability I describe above, stocks would be pushed lower still.

Fourth, for pension plans that cannot be funded by the employer, the PBGC (sort of like FDIC for pensions) would have to step in and make up the benefits. If this step became necessary, it would be one more factor contributing to the devaluation of the dollar (since the money to guarantee these benefits would have to be raised through the issuance of additional debt).

It's important to remember that no one under 50 years old has lived through a long term bear market (not counting, of course, the one that started in 2001). There are simply no coping skills that are based upon experience. Every big market downturn leads to the response of "great buying opportunity".
:)
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby btu2012 » Sat 05 Jul 2008, 11:59:42

20 years tops until TSHTF.
only the paranoid survive
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby benzoil » Sat 05 Jul 2008, 12:01:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', '
')Since societies are adaptive systems those plateaus will give people time to adjust or just let the frog get used to the new water temp.


There are plenty of historical examples indicating that civilized societies don't tend to adapt very well to changing conditions. They tend to collapse, especially the very complex ones.

Maybe our ultra-complex civilization will prove to be unusually adaptable. I don't know there's much evidence that it will be. Humans may be adaptable, but I'm not convinced our society is.


I don't mean to say that we will successfully adapt, but there will be efforts at mitigation. These efforts may or may not be successful in the long run, but I expect that such efforts will slow down the rate of change.

Rome didn't fall in a day. The Goths were running around the Italian peninsula for a couple years before they finally sacked it. That was in 410. Yet, Rome didn't fall "officially" until 473. The Mayan "collapse" took 200 years. Is that a collapse or a long slide?

Societies are like living beings. They can and do change in response to their environments (exception: Vikings in Greenland!). Most societies tend to add more complexity to solve problems. As Tainter points out, there are limits to this approach and I think we are at those limits... but there will be an effort and some of that effort will work to delay the slide.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby Jack » Sat 05 Jul 2008, 12:03:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'T')here are simply no coping skills that are based upon experience. Every big market downturn leads to the response of "great buying opportunity".




True enough.

In addition to the effects you mentioned, there is also a negative wealth effect as people perceive their net worth has declined and hence spend less. It is interesting to note that we have a similar ongoing effect due to decreases in house prices. Thus, a sharply declining market might have a negative synergy with the housing market producing ongoing sharp declines in consumer spending and hence business activity.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby Armageddon » Sat 05 Jul 2008, 12:12:00

We are in uncharted waters in many aspects. 6 months - 2 yrs before system-attic failure across the board.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby DantesPeak » Sat 05 Jul 2008, 12:19:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'W')e are in uncharted waters in many aspects. 6 months - 2 yrs before system-attic failure across the board.


If anything, I am not 'panicing' enough.

My oil price target for 2008 was $146, which we just about reached Thursday. That's before hurricane season and a fall off in Nigerain oil imports to hit this month.

We are in the midst of simultaneous credit market, housing, and dollar crashes. The latter, the dollar crash, only doesn't seem like a crash because it is happening so slow, and other countries have tied their anchor to the dollar ship.

We can't be sure what will happen if the whole strcuture of our economic system starts falling apart. But it won't be anything like now.

My opinion is that the economy hasn't even really felt the impact of $100 oil yet, let alone $140. (The average price paid for imported oil in April was less than $100).
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby BigTex » Sat 05 Jul 2008, 12:55:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'W')e are in uncharted waters in many aspects. 6 months - 2 yrs before system-attic failure across the board.


If anything, I am not 'panicing' enough.

My oil price target for 2008 was $146, which we just about reached Thursday. That's before hurricane season and a fall off in Nigerain oil imports to hit this month.

We are in the midst of simultaneous credit market, housing, and dollar crashes. The latter, the dollar crash, only doesn't seem like a crash because it is happening so slow, and other countries have tied their anchor to the dollar ship.

We can't be sure what will happen if the whole strcuture of our economic system starts falling apart. But it won't be anything like now.

My opinion is that the economy hasn't even really felt the impact of $100 oil yet, let alone $140. (The average price paid for imported oil in April was less than $100).


We should all remember that the ONLY things that got us out of the 1970s mess was the combination of punishingly high interest rates, a collapse in oil prices and New Deal-style deficit spending.

So far, there is no reason to believe that dramatically higher interest rates are being seriously considered by the Fed, and as we all know, an oil price collapse is virtually certain not to occur, no matter how much economic contraction takes place. As for deficit spending, I think we've done about as much of that as we can.

In a demand destruction environment where oil production decline is also occurring, if the rate of demand destruction is similar to the production decline rate, persistently high prices could linger even in the face of dramatic reductions in consumption (which would also mean, I assume, dramatically lower levels of economic activity).

Anyone have an argument for why oil price shocks are not ALWAYS stagflationary?

I hate to say it, but I think that we will be in a stagflationary environment from here forward.

If anyone wants to talk me out of it, though, I'm listening.
:)
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby threadbear » Sat 05 Jul 2008, 13:35:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', ' ')"Adjusting" does not mean implementing a hydrogen economy or inventing fusion. Simply that society does things like insulate homes, swap out SUVs for hybrids, move closer to work, start on some megaproject or another and other things that mitigate. These things will slow down the rate of change.

They won't stop it, however, but I think that 2015-2020 is a reasonable timeframe for when TSHTF. That may depend on how you define TSHTF, but I think we have a few more years after 2012 to get those permaculture gardens established.


Christ in a sidecar! The slow cushioned blow isn't possible in a society that is facing credit contraction, rising prices for essential items, due to fiscal mismanagement AND cost of oil.

We're in a global economic decline, that would be happening regardless of peak oil. Add to that actual geologic peak, then factor in transnational corporations and financiers exacerbating a dire situation. These forces are working synergistically and will create a punctuated equilibrium event.

http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/Punctueq.html

This is it.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby Heineken » Sat 05 Jul 2008, 13:55:08

I can't speak for the rest of the world, but Americans are getting poorer every day. All the former spigots of money have been turned off or turned down---stock market, interest rates, credit, house values, trade-in offers for guzzlers, etc., while at the same time the prices of everything (except guzzlers) are jacking ever higher. What's more, salaries are static and 1/2 million jobs have been lost this year already.

Nothing new here, but it's an incredible bind, isn't it? Americans are getting poorer daily, and no reversal of this trend seems possible. It might, eventually, slow, but only when we reach a historically miserable level with a much higher death rate. AKA dieoff.

America may still be the most "powerful" nation in the world, but I sincerely doubt that it's the wealthiest. That is now propagandistic nonsense.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby Armageddon » Sat 05 Jul 2008, 16:07:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('golem', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', ' ')

America may still be the most "powerful" nation in the world, but I sincerely doubt that it's the wealthiest. That is now propagandistic nonsense.


No it is not propaganda.

Based on the following formula...you are wrong, wrong, wrong.
I though ewe smarter.
Energy = Money

Remember ALL of America, (about 8% of the world's population), meaning the collective USA, uses in excess of 25% of the world's energy resources each and every year.

In other words ... per capita the USA has been shown to use more energy PER person every year.
Remember the formula.
Energy = Money

And it IS apparent energy will continue to go UP in value.
Therefore PER PERSON the USA are the wealthiest if you consider the value of the energy consumed...

Heineken, is a good tasting beer, but you need to stop looking through life through the distortions that the bottom of a beer bottle generates...
:wink:

Wealth is the ability to use energy and produce energy.
Money is energy in the bank to be used for a rainy day.

namaste

golem



If we didn't have to import 2/3 of that energy, I may agree with you.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby Heineken » Sat 05 Jul 2008, 21:24:06

Doesn't that say it all, Amageddon. Thank you.

Golem, I feel honored to have been visited by your amazing brain.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby bodigami » Sun 06 Jul 2008, 01:11:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ainan', 'O')h sure, but thats in America, when TSHTF there it will give the rest of us a little more breathing room. I do understand this will have a massive impact on the rest of the world but we can probably get by.


One thing that I suspect would be helpful in that regard would be to stop pushing advanced telecommunications and internet into the hinterlands. These technologies ultimately serve as little more than propagation devices for the spread of consumerism. One of the reasons I have refused to support the 'One Laptop Per Child' program. While it might seem to be a noble gesture, it really just exacerbates problems by creating demand for a western lifestyle in areas that never knew of it to begin with. Same for the spread of television into rural India and China.


Computers and the internet are the modern equivalent of sending Sears Roebuck catalogs to the guys digging the Panama Canal to get them to work harder so they could make more money to buy more stuff.

I looked for a link to that story but couldn't find one. It's an interesting foreshadowing of where we are at today with the "developing markets."


Computers and the Net, IF USED AND FILTERED WISELY, are the equivalent of Libraries and Universities when invented.

You can take my Mac and ADSL connection from my cold dead hands.

...of course it's a metaphor; I'm not dying for tools. But, I'm studying Computing and Networking on Costa Rica (a "developing" country), and will ignore your stupid, ignorant and arrogant advice.

So, are you OK with people in my country to not even have the possibility to read peakoil.com... STFU! :twisted: :razz: :lol: :)
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby bodigami » Sun 06 Jul 2008, 01:16:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('darwinsdog', '(')...)There's no way that she's going to have as easy of a life as I have enjoyed, or that she has enjoyed up 'til now. But oh well, life is never certain & the best one can ever do is to cast one's genes into the future & hope for the best for the phenotypes that carry them. Nothing lasts forever so have a Heineken on this holiday weekend, Heineken. Relax & enjoy the moment and don't worry about what we know to be shortly in store for us all.

Best wishes.


Oh yeah, go have offspring so "you" become immortal; it doesn't matter that your offspring will be living in hell with your knowledge of it.

No thanks, ignorant fool! :lol:
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby mos6507 » Sun 06 Jul 2008, 02:04:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anagami', '
')the Net, IF USED AND FILTERED WISELY, are the equivalent of Libraries and Universities when invented.


And if you don't filter wisely you get suckered by b.s. like this:

http://www.planetxvideo.com/
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby TWilliam » Sun 06 Jul 2008, 02:13:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anagami', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ainan', 'O')h sure, but thats in America, when TSHTF there it will give the rest of us a little more breathing room. I do understand this will have a massive impact on the rest of the world but we can probably get by.


One thing that I suspect would be helpful in that regard would be to stop pushing advanced telecommunications and internet into the hinterlands. These technologies ultimately serve as little more than propagation devices for the spread of consumerism. One of the reasons I have refused to support the 'One Laptop Per Child' program. While it might seem to be a noble gesture, it really just exacerbates problems by creating demand for a western lifestyle in areas that never knew of it to begin with. Same for the spread of television into rural India and China.


Computers and the internet are the modern equivalent of sending Sears Roebuck catalogs to the guys digging the Panama Canal to get them to work harder so they could make more money to buy more stuff.

I looked for a link to that story but couldn't find one. It's an interesting foreshadowing of where we are at today with the "developing markets."


Computers and the Net, IF USED AND FILTERED WISELY, are the equivalent of Libraries and Universities when invented.

You can take my Mac and ADSL connection from my cold dead hands.

...of course it's a metaphor; I'm not dying for tools. But, I'm studying Computing and Networking on Costa Rica (a "developing" country), and will ignore your stupid, ignorant and arrogant advice.

So, are you OK with people in my country to not even have the possibility to read peakoil.com... STFU! :twisted: :razz: :lol: :)


Thanks for illustrating my point... :wink:
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby BigTex » Sun 06 Jul 2008, 12:14:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anagami', '.')..of course it's a metaphor; I'm not dying for tools. But, I'm studying Computing and Networking on Costa Rica (a "developing" country), and will ignore your stupid, ignorant and arrogant advice.

So, are you OK with people in my country to not even have the possibility to read peakoil.com... STFU! :twisted: :razz: :lol: :)


zensui, you need to relax.

"Stupid, ignorant and arrogant" are way off the path.
:)
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby bodigami » Sun 06 Jul 2008, 13:35:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anagami', '.')..of course it's a metaphor; I'm not dying for tools. But, I'm studying Computing and Networking on Costa Rica (a "developing" country), and will ignore your stupid, ignorant and arrogant advice.

So, are you OK with people in my country to not even have the possibility to read peakoil.com... STFU! :twisted: :razz: :lol: :)


zensui, you need to relax.

"Stupid, ignorant and arrogant" are way off the path.


I was surprised that you apparently didn't put much tought in your opinion... "cold water" so to speak. Computers and the Net are tools, potentialy very useful for that which matters. Your "suggestion", from my perspective (of just the country I live), sounds quite arrogant.

Think more when you make such "suggestions".
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby Ludi » Sun 06 Jul 2008, 13:39:45

anagami = not a good advertisement for Buddhism. :(
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby TWilliam » Sun 06 Jul 2008, 14:04:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anagami', 'I') was surprised that you apparently didn't put much tought in your opinion... "cold water" so to speak. Computers and the Net are tools, potentialy very useful for that which matters. Your "suggestion", from my perspective (of just the country I live), sounds quite arrogant.

Think more when you make such "suggestions".


I suggest YOU 'think more' before launching personal attacks against posters on this board based on an apparently limited understanding of what was being said to begin with.

Nowhere did BigTex or myself imply that people ANYwhere should be denied an education. What we are saying is that these 'tools', as you call them, are indeed tools, but not in the manner which you assume. They are, first and foremost, tools of capitalists whose first priority is increased profits, and their 'charity' in providing them for you is identical to the 'charity' of the drug dealer who gives you a few 'free samples' in order to get you hooked. They don't give a rip about 'educating' people in developing countries. All they are concerned with is 'developing MARKETS' for their products. We've been RAISED with these technologies, we KNOW the power of their influence on society, and believe me, the people of your country will NOT like where they ultimately take you.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Postby bodigami » Sun 06 Jul 2008, 15:01:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anagami', 'I') was surprised that you apparently didn't put much tought in your opinion... "cold water" so to speak. Computers and the Net are tools, potentialy very useful for that which matters. Your "suggestion", from my perspective (of just the country I live), sounds quite arrogant.

Think more when you make such "suggestions".


I suggest YOU 'think more' before launching personal attacks against posters on this board based on an apparently limited understanding of what was being said to begin with.

Nowhere did BigTex or myself imply that people ANYwhere should be denied an education. What we are saying is that these 'tools', as you call them, are indeed tools, but not in the manner which you assume. They are, first and foremost, tools of capitalists whose first priority is increased profits, and their 'charity' in providing them for you is identical to the 'charity' of the drug dealer who gives you a few 'free samples' in order to get you hooked. They don't give a rip about 'educating' people in developing countries. All they are concerned with is 'developing MARKETS' for their products. We've been RAISED with these technologies, we KNOW the power of their influence on society, and believe me, the people of your country will NOT like where they ultimately take you.


Maybe I'm a "rare" example of computing and networking use, because I surely prefer having this tools than not having them. I've access to a lot of valuable information (accesstoinsight.org may be the best example of this), that I will otherwise have not access.

You 2 are basically "kindly" suggesting that I do without this tools and information. That means that I cann't read more about Buddhism, nor help translate from english to spanish Buddhist articles in Wikipedia, and that almost all my years of University are worthless and I should "do without" them, because my country is "not worth this tools and information". That I stop studying for an international cerfication because it's e-learning, EVEN IF in Costa Rica the market for networking needs DOUBLE the current proffesionals. Also, that I blindly take this "kind" advice and STFU, believing that this tools are "evil" because they're "capitalist poison"... EVEN if about 50% of my software is FREE and OPEN source.

Do you not understand? Are you so ignorant that still think you're right in this aspect? What do you want, an apology? Your advice is quite passive agressive if you look it in the perspective of those which it is meant to.
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