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THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 2 (merged) A

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.
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Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 23:33:29

Well I'm glad you all agree that oil consumption can increase infinitely and that even Third Worlders (or their governments) can afford infinite oil price increases.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 23:40:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'F')udge!

Does anyone else remember when the IEA was saying stuff like we will not possibly hit PO for 20 years?



Yes I remember because it was only about 2 years ago they said that.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri

Unread postby americandream » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 23:42:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')ell I'm glad you all agree that oil consumption can increase infinitely and that even Third Worlders (or their governments) can afford infinite oil price increases.


I'm not entirely sure just what your notion of third world attitudes are, but I would hardldy rank the Chinese within the scope of what you have in mind.

Try as we might like to wish away this problem by the use of meaningless labels, the sad fact of the matter is that a good many individuals more across this planet aspire after and are acquiring the very wherewithal you take for granted in the US than was the case in the days of the Cold War and newly independent Asian and Latin American colonies. I deliberatey exclude Africa from this equation as I am not entirely sure that it has freed itself from the bonds of its colonial ties.
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Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 23:43:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')ell I'm glad you all agree that oil consumption can increase infinitely and that even Third Worlders (or their governments) can afford infinite oil price increases.


I guess you didn't even bother to read Monte Quest's post above:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n my opinion, the only thing that will lower net oil consumption is peak oil itself.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri

Unread postby SILENTTODD » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 23:48:05

World wide Demand Destruction will not occur until countries that subsidize the price (use) of gasoline (China, India, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, ect, ect) allow it to be priced to world levels. It will come back to bite them in the butt, but not before it has decimated the American and possibly the European economies.
Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
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Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 23:51:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')'m not entirely sure just what your notion of third world attitudes are, but I would hardldy rank the Chinese within the scope of what you have in mind.

Do you think the Chinese will be able to merrily increase their oil consumption at the same rate they are now if oil rises to $250/barrel, $400/barrel, or more? Or, will their governments continue to be able to subsidize oil prices at those levels?

Gas in China is already around $3/gallon. Do you think the Chinese will continue to buy as much gas if it goes up to $5/gallon? Or $8/gallon?

Contrary to the beliefs of doomers, the Chinese aren't immune to the laws of economics.

Furthermore, since much of the Chinese economy is dependent upon exports to the US and the West, if the economies of the US and the rest of the West collapse due to high oil prices, the Chinese economy will eventually follow. And the rest of the world, too.

And once the entire world economy collapses due to high oil prices, demand for oil will plummet - and then so will the price.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 23:51:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'W')orld wide Demand Destruction will not occur until countries that subsidize the price (use) of gasoline (China, India, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, ect, ect) allow it to be priced to world levels. It will come back to bite them in the butt, but not before it has decimated the American and possibly the European economies.


Not only is that not going to happen, but I think the gross amount of subsidies will actually increase as the price rises. That includes the US, where I expect some combination of a sort of fuel consumption tax cut, some kind of income tax credit or a kind of rebate to offset rising fuel and/or heating costs.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri

Unread postby Eli » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 23:52:38

And that is not going to happen in the case of China they have trillions in dollars just sitting around waiting to be spent. They will continue to subsidize oil.

That will have the effect of destroying the US spending power, the more China dumps the dollar the more oil there will be for them to take.

This is going to be interesting.
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Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri

Unread postby americandream » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 23:56:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hogan', 'a')mericandream, just ignore OF2. He's flame baiting this thread, trying to hijack it.


I guess I find it difficult comprehendending why someone would seek to nitpick such an important issue with such sweeping effects at so many levels.

It's not a case of the odd electric car here or the odd hydrogen device there, or perhaps, being generous to this fellow, the odd new oil field over yonder. That seems so evident to me. This crisis goes to the very heart of how we see the world and all the layers of our lives within it.

Although I try my best to think well of most folks I meet, such glaring displays of rigidity still throw me.
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Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri

Unread postby socrates1fan » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 23:57:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hogan', 'I') remember, MQ. You've been saying this all along.

Any drop in western consumption (US, Europe) will quickly be sucked up by rapidly expanding Asian and S. American economies. Their domestic consumption is soaring, despite prices. They got a taste of the good life, and won't easily give it up.


I say we beat the consumption out of people.
Then we wouldn't have such a problem.
It would help though if I didn't purchase millions of barrels of oil just to watch it pour off a cliff into a river because I thought it looked cool...
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Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 00:02:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')ell I'm glad you all agree that oil consumption can increase infinitely and that even Third Worlders (or their governments) can afford infinite oil price increases.


How intelligent is that comment?

It's going to increase until we hit the wall. The point being that we aren't going to slow down the runaway train. Too much double digit forward momentum. Too many people getting a taste of the "good life".
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri

Unread postby americandream » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 00:06:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')'m not entirely sure just what your notion of third world attitudes are, but I would hardldy rank the Chinese within the scope of what you have in mind.

Do you think the Chinese will be able to merrily increase their oil consumption at the same rate they are now if oil rises to $250/barrel, $400/barrel, or more? Or, will their governments continue to be able to subsidize oil prices at those levels?

Gas in China is already around $3/gallon. Do you think the Chinese will continue to buy as much gas if it goes up to $5/gallon? Or $8/gallon?

Contrary to the beliefs of doomers, the Chinese aren't immune to the laws of economics.

Furthermore, since much of the Chinese economy is dependent upon exports to the US and the West, if the economies of the US and the rest of the West collapse due to high oil prices, the Chinese economy will eventually follow. And the rest of the world, too.

And once the entire world economy collapses due to high oil prices, demand for oil will plummet - and then so will the price.


I think no one in their right mind will deny that PO contemplates system failure. It's a question of magnitude I guess.

Your position on this board to date seems to contemplate mitigation of this crisis by one or the other means. That simply will not happen in my opinion. This is a systemic issue and the remedy can only be a systemic one.

Having said that, the die is cast for this way of life all across the globe and oil will be obtained, whether by market forces or martial force by the strongest players, it will be utilised into the peak, through the peak and beyond the peak until systemic collapse.

Thats where some of us on here and you, part company. We see no transitional outcomes, smoothening of the descent or other kindly outcome to the demise of Cornucopia.
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Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 00:09:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')Gas in China is already around $3/gallon. Do you think the Chinese will continue to buy as much gas if it goes up to $5/gallon? Or $8/gallon?


They will buy even more.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ontrary to the beliefs of doomers, the Chinese aren't immune to the laws of economics.


With their dollar reserves, they will for quite a while.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')urthermore, since much of the Chinese economy is dependent upon exports to the US and the West, if the economies of the US and the rest of the West collapse due to high oil prices, the Chinese economy will eventually follow.


At 11% GDP growth, they will soon have their own internal consumption. That is the 5 year Plan.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd once the entire world economy collapses due to high oil prices, demand for oil will plummet - and then so will the price.


Not unless demand declines faster than oil production.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri

Unread postby Eli » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 00:13:04

Monte in the case of China and India I think it now goes beyond the desire for the good life.

I think they must grow and expand or they will literally start dying. Without growth their populations will start to revolt.
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Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 00:16:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hogan', ' ')I understand how you feel. It still amazes me that some people will never understand even the basic concepts of the big picture. Or maybe they are just in denial. I don't really know which.


Perhaps it challenges beliefs and attitudes that were central to their very identity as humans made in the Western industrial mold.
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