[TonyPrep]

Mmm, strange goings on.

After posting that the graph on the front of the public OMR site, at the IEA, was showing a 1Q08 production average of 87.0, today's image shows it at slightly above 87.0 (maybe 87.05). Not a lot of change but I wonder how that happened. They referred to "extensive downward revisions" in the first quarter figures. Can a less than 200kbpd downward revision (previous estimate was 87.23) be regarded as "extensive"?

[Graeme]

World Faces `Oil Crisis;' IEA Ready to Tap Reserves

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he world faces an ``oil crisis,'' and the International Energy Agency stands ready to release emergency stockpiles even as the biggest consumers discuss measures to contain spiraling demand, the agency's chief said.

Consumption in China and India, the world's fastest-growing major economies, has helped drive crude oil prices to ``abnormally high'' levels above $130 a barrel, Tanaka said. The U.S., Japan, and 25 other rich countries advised by the IEA have discussed stop-gap measures to reduce consumption, including lowering speed limits and restricting cars in cities, he said.

``We can call it an `oil crisis' given the current price, and that it continues to climb even after global efforts to cut consumption,'' Tanaka said. ``We see a critical, structural issue in the global oil market, where supply growth isn't catching up with demand.''

Unlike the oil crisis in the 1970s, which was driven by supply restraints from the Middle East, the current situation is fueled by soaring demand, the IEA chief said. Speculative investment in commodities is also a driving force behind record prices, he said.

[NoWorries]

Graeme writes:

(Bloomberg) -- The world faces an ``oil crisis,'' and the International Energy Agency stands ready to release emergency stockpiles even as the biggest consumers discuss measures to contain spiraling demand, the agency's chief said.

``Any major oil-plant accident can cause a supply disruption,'' Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said in an interview in Tokyo. ``We at the IEA are monitoring the oil market and preparing ourselves to call for the release of strategic petroleum reserves at any time in the event of a major disruption.''


Consumption in China and India, the world's fastest-growing major economies, has helped drive crude oil prices to ``abnormally high'' levels above $130 a barrel, Tanaka said. The U.S., Japan, and 25 other rich countries advised by the IEA have discussed stop-gap measures to reduce consumption, including lowering speed limits and restricting cars in cities, he said.

``We can call it an `oil crisis' given the current price, and that it continues to climb even after global efforts to cut consumption,'' Tanaka said. ``We see a critical, structural issue in the global oil market, where supply growth isn't catching up with demand.''

[Fishman]

Surprise, surprise!
Truely getting to be sit back with the popcorn time and watch it all unravel.
They almost have it right, correction of the first line "peak oil crisis"

[NoWorries]

Someone needs to tell the IEA that this crisis is actually a bubble.

[Cashmere]

Fishman - dead on right.

I wonder when/if they'll attach "peak" to the oil crisis.

[FrankRichards]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'S')omeone needs to tell the IEA that this crisis is actually a bubble.

[TreeFarmer]

I'm thinking there was a heavy dose of sarcasm in that comment.

"Someone needs to tell the IEA that this crisis is actually a bubble."

After all, how many different agencies have been denying peak oil and calling everything a "bubble"?

TF

[NoWorries]

Yes, I was being sarcastic. However my broader point is that about 75% of the informed commentators I've read are talking about "bubble" and only 25% are talking about fundamentals.

NOTE: Even Goldman Sachs ($200/b within 18 mos) is saying it's a bubble. They're saying the fundamentals are OK in the medium term. They're disputing "peak" theory.

Jeffery Rubin over at CIBC is not so sure, however.


My point is that the commentary is all over the place. And even the pessimists seem optimistic, where peak oil is concerned.

[Bman4k1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', '
')
Jeffery Rubin over at CIBC is not so sure, however.

My point is that the commentary is all over the place. And even the pessimists seem optimistic, where peak oil is concerned.

[SILENTTODD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'S')omeone needs to tell the IEA that this crisis is actually a bubble.

[burtonridr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'S')omeone needs to tell the IEA that this crisis is actually a bubble.

[cipi604]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bman4k1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', '
')
Jeffery Rubin over at CIBC is not so sure, however.

My point is that the commentary is all over the place. And even the pessimists seem optimistic, where peak oil is concerned.

[burtonridr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cipi604', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bman4k1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', '
')
Jeffery Rubin over at CIBC is not so sure, however.

My point is that the commentary is all over the place. And even the pessimists seem optimistic, where peak oil is concerned.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hogan', 'S')o much for demand destruction. I think we're in trouble.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hogan', ' ')But the small decline in oil demand in the industrialized countries will be more than offset by an estimated increase in demand of 3.7 percent a year from 2008 to 2013 in developing countries, particularly in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.

[Eli]

Fudge!

Does anyone else remember when the IEA was saying stuff like we will not possibly hit PO for 20 years?

Don't they have a field by field report that is coming out in November?

I think they may have found some info they did not like.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hogan', 'I') remember, MQ. You've been saying this all along.

Any drop in western consumption (US, Europe) will quickly be sucked up by rapidly expanding Asian and S. American economies. Their domestic consumption is soaring, despite prices. They got a taste of the good life, and won't easily give it up.