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THE Peak Food Thread pt 2

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby sciencegirl » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 16:10:23

What about if people stopped eating meat and converted to vegetarianism. How much more food would we be able to grow ? Could that solve the food problem, at least for a few years. :-D
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby RainShadow » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 17:14:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'N')obody ever said Americans were in trouble.


I. Think. The. Original. Poster. Implied. As. Much. By. The. Thread. Title.

I. Think. He. Or. She. Really. Wanted. To. Emphasize. The. Point. That. The. Reader. Was. In. Potential. Trouble. And. Not. Some. Faraway. Third. World. Individual.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby VMarcHart » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 17:15:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sciencegirl', 'W')hat about if people stopped eating meat and converted to vegetarianism. How much more food would we be able to grow?
It would certainly give a quick fix, but if we continue to grow at the current rate, it's just a matter of time before we resume this conversation.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 22:53:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'Y')eah big excess :roll:


Math help online
A decade ago, the grain used for livestock from the US alone would've been able to feed nearly 20% of the population of the world. Include waste from spoilage and whatnot and we're at nearly another ~2 billion. Toss in grain use for livestock world wide and we're probably at ~50+% of current food production. That's a pretty big excess IMO!

We could probably double food production and we would still have people starving. It's not about lack of food, it's about greed and waste, which has been around for decades wrt the farming revolution. Besides, how can you condone stuff w/ absolute headlines like what the OP linked?


And I will still be eating grain fed beef and throwing my leftovers to the chickens while many others are starving. I case you have not noticed we do not live in a just world. You can hate the fact or you can embrace it, the fact, however, will not change.

Yes people will be starving around the globe while I am still throwing away unwanted portions from McDonalds. Last Time I checked there is no way to transport that food without spoiling it.

Yes people will starve while producing nations are rolling in excess production. If we shipped off the excess that would reduce local supply and we would vote bums into office who would institute policies to reduce exports and keep the price low at home (a' la the rice exporting nations which stopped all exports in order to keep the price of rice down at home).
It isn't about shipping off the excess or trying to transport leftovers from Micky D's, but thanks for the strawmen. ;) It is however about grossly inefficient use of food and capital for greed while others starve when they don't have to. Sure, we can't transport leftover hamburgers to Africa, but we could simply not raise an excessive amount of meat and have more than enough additional grain for those who are in need. That being said, if we decide to use our excess in certain ways because we are greedy, that's fine. But I wouldn't think for a second that we don't have plenty of excess wrt food or that fossil fuel prices would result in some basic inability to produce enough food to feed the world. We're simply greedy and would rather have grain fed livestock and/or Ethanol and/or etc than to do something about those starving. But, again, that isn't about the significant effect of fossil fuel prices on food, as was seen with people starving for the past century w/ much lower FF prices, it's about greed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'C')an we measure the point where all of those things will break? Of course not, right now we just have the projections for consumption and production that we have... and in a world populated by over 6 billion people a few million tonnes is not much of an excess.
A few tonnes isn't, however the amount we waste due to greed/apathy is. :(
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby Mominator » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 23:04:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '1'). The United States is the world's largest food exporter by a huge margin. . . .
2. The US is attacked at the UN every year because it produces too much food. . . .Basically, I'm not worried. I'm so not worried about it that I'm literally betting my life on it by ignoring the advice to run off to the countryside and start a farm.

But isn't the idea that we only produce so much food *because* of ff? Without cheap ff we won't have nearly as much production. Right?
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby Mominator » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 23:06:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '
')
Yes people will be starving around the globe while I am still throwing away unwanted portions from McDonalds. Last Time I checked there is no way to transport that food without spoiling it..


LOL, but didn't you see Supersize Me? Those fries last FOREVER. :p
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby Denny » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 23:15:01

The United States is the Saudi Arabia of agriculture. In fact, in economic terms as food goes up in price, its one compensating factor in the world economy favoring the U.S.

As others have written, grain prices will have the balancing factor of substitution away from livstock feed as the prices grow. Look to more grass fed beef and even lamb in the meat diet.

I feel the worst thing that will affect the American consumer from high prices may be a trend away from excess meat consumption. And, that will be a blessing in disguise.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby mobil1 » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 00:40:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'T')he United States is the Saudi Arabia of agriculture. In fact, in economic terms as food goes up in price, its one compensating factor in the world economy favoring the U.S.



Ummm, but food prices don't just magically re-appear in peoples pockets, nor either the farmers in most cases.

Point is, food prices are going up because oil is going up, so it's the oil producers/owners who are reaping the benefits of higher food prices.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 01:06:24

yesplease,

greed, apathy as well as tribalism are part of the human condition. For the species as a whole there is no getting away from them so they must be part of our calculations. Pretending they are fungible, or worse yet negotiable, is fantasy and delays the interaction with reality that is needed.

Tribalism will reappear with a vengeance. We will not only not care that others are starving we will assume that they deserved it for either secular (they don't work hard enough or are not as smart as us) or religious (God is punishing them) rationales.

At the same time the causes of our own suffering, whatever it may be, will be externalized (they are doing this to us).

Of course we see these very attitudes in evidence on this board everyday, you do not need to travel very far. Perhaps you hear it at your Thanksgiving table or perhaps when you sit at the local diner.

You, I and St. Francis may be moved by altruism and love, but the Crusade finds more willing hearts than the call to poverty and selflessness. As individuals we do not need to be conformed to the realities around us, but we must come to grips with the realities.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby VMarcHart » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 08:40:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'S')ure, we can't transport leftover hamburgers to Africa
Hi, yesplease. Not addressed to you, but since you brought it up, I snort at these comments to send food to third world countries. In my travelings through our beautiful and powerful USofA, I'm often in the most empoverished counties and zip codes in the nation, and between us, it's nasty.

During the Katrina crisis, a relative found it was "less bureaucratic" --real quote-- to get passports, visas, currencies, vaccines, learn foreign expressions, and travel to Georgia (former USSR) to donate money and build a church, then to load a pick-up truck and drive down I-55. Absolute non-sense.

Be good!
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby droper » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 18:59:11

um first world not a big problem, third world really big problem. You'd be surprised how little food you can live on third worlds already there so they dont have wiggle room like we do.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby cube » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 21:32:51

3rd world
Image

1st world
Image

Maybe pictures will get my point across.
The 3rd world will collapse.
The 1st world can afford to lose a little bit of weight. :roll:
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby yesplease » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 22:12:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'Y')ou, I and St. Francis may be moved by altruism and love, but the Crusade finds more willing hearts than the call to poverty and selflessness. As individuals we do not need to be conformed to the realities around us, but we must come to grips with the realities.
And one of those realities is having a tremendous excess of food. ;) Hell, we could have another Crusade where everyone eats meat from predators who have to eat meat from herbivores who have to eat grain that we grow then whine about how we're going to run into trouble w/ the food supply, but just because we whine about it doesn't make it so. What we're really having trouble w/ would be greed, and in that case fluff like what was posted is just fear mongering.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 22:39:22

wcur, you seem to be advocating a lot of gripping of reality lately.

There are a number of kinds of reality--the reality that the sun will eventually die, the reality that resources have limits, the reality that gw is beginning to pass crucial tipping points...

Compared to these hard realities, any statement about human behavior as "reality" is comparatively soft.

Humans can and have changed very basic aspects of their behavior fairly consistently. In the fifties, the US was know throughout the world as a deeply racist society. Today, while deep institutional and individual racism continues of course, the leading candidate for president is what most would consider Black. Now fifty, even twenty, years ago, most people said that wanting a Black president was just not accepting political reality. Yet this type of "reality" did change, but it took a whole lot of people willing to imagine themselves past it.

On a more ridiculous level, a couple years back tens of thousands of people quite suddenly and for the flimsiest of reasons gave up what had been considered "the staff of life" for thousands of years by their culture--it was called the Atkins diet. Sure it didn't last long, but if it were reinforced in positive ways, it may have (not that I think it was a very good idea). Such examples could be multiplied many times.

Don't get me wrong. I think it is extremely unlikely that globally people will make the changes necessary to avert the worst consequences of PO, and let's not even start on GW. But reality has many different meanings, and its meaning is shakiest when discussing human behavior.

Tyler, how much of US food production, transportation, and processing is currently dependent on fossil fuels? (hint--a lot)

The economics of food is so out of wack on so many levels, its hard to say anymore which element is the most destructive and distorting. What will happen to that crazy system as oil price continue to spiral ever higher is impossible to know exactly, but it is not likely to be pretty.

Moving massively to more local, non-pesticide dependent, lower-on-the-food-chain foods may help soften the blows to come, as well as having a variety of other benefits. But at this point, the change is already upon us, and most "adjustments" are likely going to be forced by circumstances rather than chosen by moral or other suasion.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby VMarcHart » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 22:56:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'M')aybe pictures will get my point across.
The 3rd world will collapse.
The 1st world can afford to lose a little bit of weight. :roll:

Don't know, Cube. Other than the bottle of water and the grain bags themselves, it seems there was little fossil fuel on that 3rd world country's table, whereas here, it was all fossil fuel. What you think?
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby SoylentGreen » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 23:54:52

you guys really need to see the ultimate future shock flick "Soylent Green" circa early 70's
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby Hagakure_Leofman » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 00:15:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoylentGreen', 'y')ou guys really need to see the ultimate future shock flick "Soylent Green" circa early 70's


Ah yes, the soy/lentil corporation really knows how to feed the population........ [into a beef jerky machine!]
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby Hagakure_Leofman » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 00:18:51

Ecuador seem the happiest :-D

Image
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby cube » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 00:42:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'M')aybe pictures will get my point across.
The 3rd world will collapse.
The 1st world can afford to lose a little bit of weight. :roll:

Don't know, Cube. Other than the bottle of water and the grain bags themselves, it seems there was little fossil fuel on that 3rd world country's table, whereas here, it was all fossil fuel. What you think?
on the contrary that bag of rice or beans probably came from the USA.
here's a nifty map:
Territory size shows the proportion of worldwide net imports of cereals (in US$) that are received there.
Image
Notice that Africa is a major importer of cereals aka grains.
The purple in the upper right hand corner is Japan. Yes they import a lot of food too but they can afford it.
Africa has a bad combination of being poor and also a major food importer. That's the "perfect" combination for a die-off. :twisted:
//
here's the opposite:
Territory size shows the proportion of worldwide net exports of cereals (in US$) that come from there.
Image
It's been said before, the USA is the Saudi Arabia for food production.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 01:18:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'w')cur, you seem to be advocating a lot of gripping of reality lately.

There are a number of kinds of reality--the reality that the sun will eventually die, the reality that resources have limits, the reality that gw is beginning to pass crucial tipping points...

Compared to these hard realities, any statement about human behavior as "reality" is comparatively soft.

Humans can and have changed very basic aspects of their behavior fairly consistently. In the fifties, the US was know throughout the world as a deeply racist society. Today, while deep institutional and individual racism continues of course, the leading candidate for president is what most would consider Black. Now fifty, even twenty, years ago, most people said that wanting a Black president was just not accepting political reality. Yet this type of "reality" did change, but it took a whole lot of people willing to imagine themselves past it.


...

But reality has many different meanings, and its meaning is shakiest when discussing human behavior.



The reality thing is something which core to who I am but yes I have made it more of a point to talk about it recently.

On the question of race I have two observations that lead me to believe that we have not really changed in any meaningful sense.

First, yes a black man will quite possibly be the next president of the United States, an idea that would amaze those living just 30 years ago. I would ask is this because Americans have become fundamentally less tribal or have the definitions and boundaries of the tribes changed?

30 years ago someone spewing racist speech would probably be allowed in common company, now they and not the black man are shunned. We can say that tribalism based on ideas and character is better than a tribalism based solely on race is an improvement (and I would concur) but it does not change the fact that there remains second class citizens. What about "white trash" or individuals who speak with a "hick" accent (white or black)? The white middle class tribe has allied itself with the educated black middle and upper class tribe against other tribes. The alliances have changed since 1968 but we are still tribal.

Secondly, our tribal nature has been... tamed by abundance. The tribe is most obvious when times are lean and when individuals fall back on "people like me." I have a (morbid) interest in watching how scapegoating and tribalism strengthen over the next few years. People are going to look for someone to blame, who will it be? The oil company tribe? The peak oil tribe? The arab tribe? The illegal immigrant tribe? I don't know but trust me on this... there will be a scapegoat and we will all soon be reminded of which tribe to which we belong.

I don't like it...
but it is the way things is.

I read ancient Roman, Jewish and Greek texts and it is a story about people. I recognize the emotions and the pain. I see the same crowd demanding circuses and bread. I hear the same mothers weep and father scream for the letting of vengeance's blood. I hear the same fundamentalists and the same calls for compromise. No, the story does not change, just the scenery and some minor details of dialogue.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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