PeakOil is You
THE Peak Food Thread pt 2
Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
by VMarcHart » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 08:56:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'M')aybe pictures will get my point across.
Thanks, Cube. True, we're the Saudia Arabia of grains. But you know, in my world travelings, for a while I lived in a house with a banana, mango, and avocado trees, 2 chickens and a pond full of fish not too far. Not the most balanced diet, but if I still lived in that country and house, and it hit the fan and food was scarse, I'd have plenty of calories to live. Whereas now, living in Chicago, I don't even know where the nearest apple tree is. I'm totally depended on fossil fuel for breakfast, lunch, tea, dinner, supper and snacks.
Back to the original post "...we have "innocently" accommodated rising population with greater and greater food production via technology and the profit motive. But now we have run out of room to grow, as biotechnology, for example, has severe limitations -- major ones being petroleum dependence and topsoil loss. The biggest wild card for our existence is climate change, as we see with floods and other extreme weather affecting our food supply..."
-
VMarcHart - Heavy Crude
- Posts: 1644
- Joined: Mon 26 May 2008, 03:00:00
- Location: Now overpopulating California
Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
by dohboi » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 16:53:46
Thanks for the thoughtful reply, cur.
I've been thinking a lot about a term that comes up in a lot of the ancient texts I read (Greek and Latin, but also Old English and other early Germanic lit, Sanskrit...).
The term is "compelled by necessity" (nyde gebaded in OE). It is a condition that heroes and peoples find themselves in. It is not a good position to be in in any of the texts. Basically it deprives you of all agency and you are merely driven by circumstances. This is the condition we seem to be entering.
I've been thinking a lot about a term that comes up in a lot of the ancient texts I read (Greek and Latin, but also Old English and other early Germanic lit, Sanskrit...).
The term is "compelled by necessity" (nyde gebaded in OE). It is a condition that heroes and peoples find themselves in. It is not a good position to be in in any of the texts. Basically it deprives you of all agency and you are merely driven by circumstances. This is the condition we seem to be entering.
-
dohboi - Harmless Drudge
- Posts: 19990
- Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Lundberg: "You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food"
by KevO » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 15:50:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food. Need this be spelled out any more plainly? It is time to consider that the stage has been set for petroleum-induced famine.
We have "innocently" accommodated rising population with greater and greater food production via technology and the profit motive. But now we have run out of room to grow, as biotechnology, for example, has severe limitations -- major ones being petroleum dependence and topsoil loss. The biggest wild card for our existence is climate change, as we see with floods and other extreme weather affecting our food supply.
We are headed for massive shortages of food and other essentials, mainly brought about by the depletion of geological fossil reserves of cheap energy and water. The situation is demonstrated regularly with easy arithmetic based on statistical indicators from the United Nations, Worldwatch Institute, World Resources Institute, Earth Policy Institute, and numerous governments. Usually the full force of the message is offset by predictions of huge rises in future human population growth that are simple extrapolations of historical trends.
No one can say with certainty that the worst effects of today's crisis will occur tomorrow or by any particular date. But it is irrational to assume there will only be gradual tightening of supplies until some solutions miraculously come to our aid. One ought to at least admit that one year ago few people thought we'd be going in the direction we're going in, this fast, today.
Three days is our average food supply around the modernized world, i.e., for cities and their supermarkets. Long-term food stocks have plummeted: "Cereal stocks that are at their lowest level in 30 years," according to Worldwatch institute in its most recent Vital Signs. This is exacerbated by increasingly weirder weather, compounded by the oil price/supply pressure on food. What can interfere with the three-day situation are truckers on strike (as in Europe), extended/repeated power outages, and the inability of the work force to commute to work.
I asked Chris Flavin, Worldwatch Institute president, about the escalating crisis that I assumed he was quite worried about. He told me on Wednesday,
We have "innocently" accommodated rising population with greater and greater food production via technology and the profit motive. But now we have run out of room to grow, as biotechnology, for example, has severe limitations -- major ones being petroleum dependence and topsoil loss. The biggest wild card for our existence is climate change, as we see with floods and other extreme weather affecting our food supply.
We are headed for massive shortages of food and other essentials, mainly brought about by the depletion of geological fossil reserves of cheap energy and water. The situation is demonstrated regularly with easy arithmetic based on statistical indicators from the United Nations, Worldwatch Institute, World Resources Institute, Earth Policy Institute, and numerous governments. Usually the full force of the message is offset by predictions of huge rises in future human population growth that are simple extrapolations of historical trends.
No one can say with certainty that the worst effects of today's crisis will occur tomorrow or by any particular date. But it is irrational to assume there will only be gradual tightening of supplies until some solutions miraculously come to our aid. One ought to at least admit that one year ago few people thought we'd be going in the direction we're going in, this fast, today.
Three days is our average food supply around the modernized world, i.e., for cities and their supermarkets. Long-term food stocks have plummeted: "Cereal stocks that are at their lowest level in 30 years," according to Worldwatch institute in its most recent Vital Signs. This is exacerbated by increasingly weirder weather, compounded by the oil price/supply pressure on food. What can interfere with the three-day situation are truckers on strike (as in Europe), extended/repeated power outages, and the inability of the work force to commute to work.
I asked Chris Flavin, Worldwatch Institute president, about the escalating crisis that I assumed he was quite worried about. He told me on Wednesday,
FULL ARTICLE
- KevO
- Expert
- Posts: 2775
- Joined: Tue 24 May 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: CT USA
Re: Lundberg: "You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food&
by basil_hayden » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 15:56:13
You're catching up, KevO!
This has only been posted for about two weeks on po.com.
Take the piss out of KevO again
Lots of KevO posts today, got some spare time on your hands?
This has only been posted for about two weeks on po.com.
Take the piss out of KevO again
Lots of KevO posts today, got some spare time on your hands?
-
basil_hayden - Heavy Crude
- Posts: 1581
- Joined: Mon 08 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: CT, USA
Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
by HKFarmboy » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 05:12:57
"To Serve Man" is a cookbook!
we will not resort to cannibalism. We will have trouble feeding ourselves and very soon.
This bumper wheat crop was achieved with liberal applications of nitrogen fertilizer. Corn uses way more than wheat.
Nitrogen fertilizer is made from natural gas and 800 degree steam.
Very petro-energy dependent.
we will not resort to cannibalism. We will have trouble feeding ourselves and very soon.
This bumper wheat crop was achieved with liberal applications of nitrogen fertilizer. Corn uses way more than wheat.
Nitrogen fertilizer is made from natural gas and 800 degree steam.
Very petro-energy dependent.
-
HKFarmboy - Wood
- Posts: 15
- Joined: Wed 09 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
by manu » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 09:10:16
It would help if everyone made a concious choice of not eating meat or eating less meat. The U.S. will have a big problem when they can't use oil for production on their big farms. I just saw a CNN program where they said in Thailand the farmers are giving up their tractors and going back to buffalo to plow the fields. On one farm that trains the buffalo's to plow the waiting list to get a buffalo is three years. You can train an ox or buffalo to plow in a couple of months so it must be a shortage of buffalo. So if the U.S. and other countries needed to switch back to say oxen or horses it won't be a smooth transition from the way they are farming now. That time may come sooner or later, but it will come. The people have been mislead and I think it is too late already.
-
manu - Tar Sands
- Posts: 751
- Joined: Wed 26 Jul 2006, 03:00:00
Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
by Ludi » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 09:23:42
I'm hoping people will move away from plow agriculture completely, as we know most plow agriculture is not beneficial to the land.
No plowing necessary
No plowing necessary
- Ludi
Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
by manu » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 09:49:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')'m hoping people will move away from plow agriculture completely, as we know most plow agriculture is not beneficial to the land.
No plowing necessary
No plowing necessary
Yes, some will have to do as Fukiyoko did. Because they won't have cows and bulls.
But the cow has milk, ghee, curds to help in the diet. To have cows you need bulls. You can use them for plowing the fields. I don't know where you came up with oxen plowing is not beneficial. The compost from them is number one. The urine from the cow is antiseptic, can be used to purify. Also it is medicinal, used for many ayurvedic medicines. Esp. it is good for the liver. I have met people who had cirrosis of the liver and were cured by cow's urine and ayurvedic herbs. That was when they were told they only had 24 hours to live. Milk is actually beneficial for the brain.
-
manu - Tar Sands
- Posts: 751
- Joined: Wed 26 Jul 2006, 03:00:00
Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
by Jenab6 » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 10:47:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'w')cur, you seem to be advocating a lot of gripping of reality lately. There are a number of kinds of reality--the reality that the sun will eventually die, the reality that resources have limits, the reality that gw is beginning to pass crucial tipping points... Compared to these hard realities, any statement about human behavior as "reality" is comparatively soft.
Humans can and have changed very basic aspects of their behavior fairly consistently. In the fifties, the US was know throughout the world as a deeply racist society. Today, while deep institutional and individual racism continues of course, the leading candidate for president is what most would consider Black. Now fifty, even twenty, years ago, most people said that wanting a Black president was just not accepting political reality. Yet this type of "reality" did change, but it took a whole lot of people willing to imagine themselves past it.
But reality has many different meanings, and its meaning is shakiest when discussing human behavior.
Humans can and have changed very basic aspects of their behavior fairly consistently. In the fifties, the US was know throughout the world as a deeply racist society. Today, while deep institutional and individual racism continues of course, the leading candidate for president is what most would consider Black. Now fifty, even twenty, years ago, most people said that wanting a Black president was just not accepting political reality. Yet this type of "reality" did change, but it took a whole lot of people willing to imagine themselves past it.
But reality has many different meanings, and its meaning is shakiest when discussing human behavior.
The reality thing is something which core to who I am but yes I have made it more of a point to talk about it recently. On the question of race I have two observations that lead me to believe that we have not really changed in any meaningful sense. First, yes a black man will quite possibly be the next president of the United States, an idea that would amaze those living just 30 years ago. I would ask is this because Americans have become fundamentally less tribal or have the definitions and boundaries of the tribes changed?
30 years ago someone spewing racist speech would probably be allowed in common company, now they and not the black man are shunned. We can say that tribalism based on ideas and character is better than a tribalism based solely on race is an improvement (and I would concur) but it does not change the fact that there remains second class citizens. What about "white trash" or individuals who speak with a "hick" accent (white or black)? The white middle class tribe has allied itself with the educated black middle and upper class tribe against other tribes. The alliances have changed since 1968 but we are still tribal.
Secondly, our tribal nature has been... tamed by abundance. The tribe is most obvious when times are lean and when individuals fall back on "people like me." I have a (morbid) interest in watching how scapegoating and tribalism strengthen over the next few years. People are going to look for someone to blame, who will it be? The oil company tribe? The peak oil tribe? The arab tribe? The illegal immigrant tribe? I don't know but trust me on this... there will be a scapegoat and we will all soon be reminded of which tribe to which we belong. I don't like it, but it is the way things are.
I read ancient Roman, Jewish and Greek texts and it is a story about people. I recognize the emotions and the pain. I see the same crowd demanding circuses and bread. I hear the same mothers weep and father scream for the letting of vengeance's blood. I hear the same fundamentalists and the same calls for compromise. No, the story does not change, just the scenery and some minor details of dialogue.
Seldom do I read on this forum a post on race, written by anyone other than myself, that contains so much good sense as this by the cur. He's right: the story does not change. And the reason it does not change is because man has had a habit of trying to impose his values on Nature for thousands of years, instead of learning to live with the values that Nature always, in the end, imposes on men.
We shall go back to tribalism (and to racism) whether or not we want it, and the problem is not this, but rather that we do not want it and that, because we do not want it, we waste our energy in a futile resistance to natural laws and bend the knee only when our means of resistance has been exhausted--at which moment our capacity for doing much of anything has also been exhausted.
The repetition of history's mistakes occurs because man repeatedly confuses sentimental humanitarianism with morality, which happens in turn because man is not, quite, intelligent enough to distinguish between what is virtue and what makes him feel virtuous.
For example, consider the humanitarian drive to "feed the hungry," particularly, as prevailing politics demand, in some region where the hungry are not White. What is the intent? To end hunger. What is the result? To increase the numbers of hungry people. Has the result been well-documented? Certainly. Why do some men insist on the continuance of a policy that contains obvious flaws and has obviously always failed? Because it makes them feel virtuous. Real virtue would do as experience shows to be wise. But acting thus requires just a bit more intelligence than most men have.
Now, which form of government most effectively drowns the signal of wisdom in the noise of mediocrity? Mass democracy does. Which form of government do we, more or less, have? In official form, we have a representative republic, but in apparent political action, we have a mass democracy. However, things are even worse than they appear. Our mass democratic system is controlled by information management on the exchange of ideas - at least insofar as the large bandwidth media are concerned. A few men, most of them Jews, tell the rest of us what they believe we ought to know about the world, about the concerns of the day, and about the candidates who run for our public offices. "All the news that's fit to print" really means "All the news the Jews choose to print." And that's a big part of the problem with American and European politics.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'I') have a (morbid) interest in watching how scapegoating and tribalism strengthen over the next few years.
Scapegoats, ah yes. So much of the talk in which the words scapegoat or scapegoating appear seems to imply that the blame for causing a bad situation is merely an illusion, that in reality there is no blame, and that any attempt to assign blame is a misguided, if not an evil, thing to do. Nonsense. Hitler was not wrong when, in Mein Kampf, he blamed the Jews for what they actually were doing. Nor was he wrong when he surmised the harm arising from Jewish activities to the German people. No, rather he was right. And the reason for the incessant anti-Nazi propaganda, continuing now for its 63rd consecutive year past the end of World War Two, is precisely to keep the lid on the fact that Hitler was right. It is why instances of the mention of Hitler's name do not fade from common discourse with the passage of time in exponential decline as do mentions of Pol Pot, Stalin, and Napoleon. The harmful presence that Adolf Hitler tried to remove is still here, and it is still harmful.
Which group created the financial system that required unending exponential economic growth in order to meet the demands of bankers for loan interest payments?
Which group has controlled every mass media in the West, except the Internet, for the past hundred years?
Which group is most responsible for creating child pornography in various parts of the world, for uploading it to the internet for sale, and for using it thereafter as a pretext to impose a censorship over the internet, in which, it might be expected, text such as I'm writing now will be "by the way" eliminated?
You know what the truth is. If you refrain from mentioning it, it is not because you don't know that it is true. It is for fear of reprisal by those who serve the "powers that be who should not be powerful." Such is why I consider most references to "scapegoats" to be hypocrisy.
Jerry Abbott
