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Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby careinke » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 02:32:46

Monte,

Some friendly advice. You need to choose another pandemic besides the 1918 flu to make your point on nature providing population control. Although the 1918 flu demonstrated you can’t realistically hide from a pandemic, the flu was not deadly because people’s immune systems were low. As a matter of fact the 1918 flu was the most deadly on those with the strongest immune systems. The flu was just the trigger; it was actually the immune response that killed people. Most of the deaths were in the 18 to 50 year old range, the healthiest segment of the population.

Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby TonyPrep » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 03:56:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')e laid down the ecological science behind why we need to have a paradigm shift in our thinking.
What is the paradigm shift, Monte? How should we be thinking and how would it help?
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby MrBean » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 07:45:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '
')
No, I'm not interested rereading what Bartlett says but what MQ thinks about what Bartlett says. What does it mean to choose for you and what is your choise? And what that choise means in practice.

Or do you bring up the right hand list just for entertainement value?


Do a search. There are numerous threads on the entire subject explained at length ad naseum.

Not going to rehash it here just for you.


This is what I found, http://peakoil.com/fortopic10541.html
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e have grown accustomed to the freedom to breed on the commons. For anyone to suggest otherwise is anathema to most people. But this unbridled growth can’t continue. We must intervene and become our own predator; a Darwinian application in all of its aspects. To many people, the mere suggestion of population control, much less reduction, is out of the question, especially if it entails addressing both the birth rate and the death rate. But like Hardin points out; we must choose — or acquiesce in the destruction of the commons that mankind calls Earth. Not the Earth itself, as that would be quite presumptuous, but its’ ability to support us.


Bolding mine. Nothing on what choosing to "become our own predator" would mean in practice and how you suggest to put that choise of intervention into practice - on a scale that would in fact drop our numbers to al level that you deem sustainble - the estimates of 2-3 billion you still haven't provided the sources for. I've done enough searching, if you really have answered these kinds of questions somewhere, then please provide a link.

All I see there is just big words and high emotions, doomer porn of first order. I'm a doomer, you're a doomer, but the difference between us is that I really don't enjoy doomer porn but for some reason I get the impression you get some emotional satisfaction from the imagined schock value of blathering about the the choice of intervention you refuse to give any practical meaning.

I'm not denying there is a certain logic to what you are saying, I'm saying without practical and credible political program that would in fact produce the desired effects, it amounts to nothing but doomer porn. So please, let's try to be serious here. For example, cancer is one of the big "predators" of the developed world, now I just read that Cuba has developed a vaccine against lugn cancer. I'm curious and would like to ask you, do you sincerely propose that A) Cuba or anyone else should not have done that, B) how do you propose to stop Cuba or anyone else from distributing that vaccine at large scale, and C) how do you propose to intervene to stop everyone developing and distributing new cures against our predators - before nature puts stop to such activities, if she so chooses.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby MrBean » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 08:13:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')I never resort to ad hominems. You might want to look up the definition.

I find the merits quite enough to debate rather than resorting to "attacks against the man" to win any debate.


"You're nuts" is an ad hominem and has no merits.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')And if you find me observing you don't have a grasp of the concepts, it certainly isn't a personal attack.


No, that is just myopia and projection of your frustrated antipathy towards cornucopians on your part, wrongly targeted. I have quite good grasp of the concepts, occationally possibly even better grasp than you have - which could make discussions even interesting and educational, but your condescending attitude of "know it all" works otherwise.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')And I did just read your statement that says a ecological paradigm shift in our thinking isn't possible and to think so is a denial of reality.

That's pretty "doomer" and defeatist.


No, there is very important distinction between "not possible" and "extremely unlikely". I'm quite satisfied with one in a million chance, and not my problem, really, since I don't believe in survivalism, life boats and all that - you can call that doomer and defeatist.

But if we take the principle quality over quantity seriously, as a cornerstone of the paradigm shift, learning simpler and better way of life at the pace we are able to learn and at the time we are given is what we should concentrate on, not survivalism and doomer porn - especially when preaching to the choire. Gardens and especially permaculture gardens, ecovillages etc. are beautifull as they are.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby VMarcHart » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 12:40:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')nd a lot of people don't do their homework. Think about that.
I did. It's true. So?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')ou are new here. You don' t know the crap I have had to put up with for years.
Yes, I'm new to the site, yet that doesn't make me stupid, or more stupid than you for that matter. I'm sorry you had to put up with crap, but there will always be lots of newbies. That's the fruit of your work. You ought to congratulate yourself, instead of alienating everybody.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') have no patience for mediocrity anymore. Zero.
It's sad you gave up. Even sadder for you, mediocrity will not go away any time soon. You have a ship load of frustration coming.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'D')on't like it? Don't read my posts.
Oh, I actually like many of your posts. But, OK, you win, you can have them all for yourself.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby Ludi » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 12:44:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '
')No, there is very important distinction between "not possible" and "extremely unlikely". I'm quite satisfied with one in a million chance,


Me too, that's why I put my faith in Flying Monkey Butlers.

Image


There's a one in a million chance they will appear and enable me to survive into the Future.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby MrBean » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 14:01:23

You should know - and you do if you've read Terry Pratchet - that anything with a one in a million chance means nearly sure as hell. Not of course two in a million, one in a two million etc., those chances are just impossible.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 00:45:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')e laid down the ecological science behind why we need to have a paradigm shift in our thinking.
What is the paradigm shift, Monte? How should we be thinking and how would it help?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Catton', 'W')hichever of the two historic approaches we take, either choosing to accelerate drawdown or indulging in additional takeover, our new ecological paradigm enables us to see that eventually we will end up shifting back to the other. Either traditional way, if prolonged, leads to an inhuman future ... not toward the lasting solution of temporarily vexing problems ... For any lasting solution, we must abandon both of these ultimately disastrous methods. Drawdown bails us out of present difficulties by shortening our future. Takeover was of lasting value earlier in human history, but that time is past.

"We must learn to live within carrying capacity without trying to enlarge it. We must rely on renewable resources consumed no faster than at sustained yield rates. The last best hope for mankind is ecological modesty."


We want to find a "fix." A solution. There is no solution, only options.

To quote Garrett Hardin :
"With the coinage of 'sustainable development,' the defenders of the unsteady state have won a few more years' moratorium from the painful process of thinking."

Time to start thinking.

I addess this in this thread:

Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 00:54:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ') Nothing on what choosing to "become our own predator" would mean in practice and how you suggest to put that choise of intervention into practice - on a scale that would in fact drop our numbers to al level that you deem sustainble - the estimates of 2-3 billion you still haven't provided the sources for. I've done enough searching, if you really have answered these kinds of questions somewhere, then please provide a link.


Good lord. They are some of the biggest threads on the site!

Try the Population Reduction and Rebuttal Thread for one. MonteQuest on the Population Taboo for another.

Links to the studies have been posted relentlessly for years.

I've devoted years to answering these questions.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 01:01:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')nd a lot of people don't do their homework. Think about that.
I did. It's true. So?


Your posts reflect that fact.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 01:08:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', ' ')You ought to congratulate yourself, instead of alienating everybody.


The few I alienate is not worth worrying about. I get lots of pm's. Most of them are about admiring my patience with posters like yourself.

When I stop getting these, maybe I'll reconsider:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he unfamiliar and uneducated would call you a "prophet," I just say you have the full ability to make sense of all of the writing on all of the walls. The connections you establish, the parallels you make, and overall the facts you choose to present are the most relevant and best interwoven I've seen.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')onte, I admire your patience. Some days, I despair ever having such a skill.....sigh...
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby BigTex » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 01:37:20

For those who are new to Monte's approach and outlook, he can be a little strident or even grouchy at times, but part of it is based upon having had the identical arguments for several years.

It's not necessary that you agree with him. He is here to make his case and share his thoughts.

However, I think that it's impossible to follow his arguments for any amount of time and not find your own thinking on these matters evolving a little (or a lot).

When I first began reading his posts they struck me as dreadfully bleak and depressing, but when you look at the issues from a more objective perspective, there is a certain inevitability to his logic that doesn't make it less chilling, but does make it clear that it's a set of concerns of which A LOT more people should be aware.

For example, "Overshoot" by William Catton is the definitive work on the topic of overshoot, carrying capacity and related topics. It was written in 1980. It's an outstanding book. You know how many Amazon reviews there are for it? About 12. They're all five stars, but still it's clear that VERY few people are aware of these issues.
:)
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 01:49:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'F')or those who are new to Monte's approach and outlook, he can be a little strident or even grouchy at times, but part of it is based upon having had the identical arguments for several years.


Yes, 36 years to be exact. Almost 4 years on this site. I was in the US Coast Guard in Alaska in 1972. Same year I read Limits to Growth. I saw the wildlife there and I saw us throw our garbage off the fantail everyday in to the pristine wilderness. As we worked the ATONS, I saw walrus that had been killed for their ivory teeth and oosik and left to rot. I waded through sea lion shit knee deep to work day boards. I had an ephipany about it all.

There are limits, and we are beyond most of them.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby MrBean » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 03:35:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Try the Population Reduction and Rebuttal Thread for one. MonteQuest on the Population Taboo for another.


Thanks. Links:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic10093.html

http://peakoil.com/fortopic33890.html
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby TonyPrep » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 05:17:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')e laid down the ecological science behind why we need to have a paradigm shift in our thinking.
What is the paradigm shift, Monte? How should we be thinking and how would it help?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Catton', 'W')hichever of the two historic approaches we take, either choosing to accelerate drawdown or indulging in additional takeover, our new ecological paradigm enables us to see that eventually we will end up shifting back to the other. Either traditional way, if prolonged, leads to an inhuman future ... not toward the lasting solution of temporarily vexing problems ... For any lasting solution, we must abandon both of these ultimately disastrous methods. Drawdown bails us out of present difficulties by shortening our future. Takeover was of lasting value earlier in human history, but that time is past.

"We must learn to live within carrying capacity without trying to enlarge it. We must rely on renewable resources consumed no faster than at sustained yield rates. The last best hope for mankind is ecological modesty."

I'm still not sure how this paradigm shift helps, except on an individual level, of course. From your quotes of Catton, it doesn't seem like he sees no hope, no matter what we do. Mind you, I don't really see any hope for anything like BAU; my arguments about hypotheses, are no more than ... hypotheses.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')o quote Garrett Hardin :
"With the coinage of 'sustainable development,' the defenders of the unsteady state have won a few more years' moratorium from the painful process of thinking."Yeah, I've always likened the term "sustainable development" to the term "sustainable growth". Most people just can't imagine what a sustainable society would really entail.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') addess this in this thread:

Peak Oil: The Tip of the IcebergI think this is the one of the most frustrating issues, for me. There appear to be a lot of people on these forums, and others, who kind of get the picture but can't quite make it all the way. They can't see that we may well need to jettison all that we think is good about modern civilization (whether it is objectively good or not), in order to attain a durable society. The idea of infinite economic growth seems to underlie the opinions of most, even if they deny infinite economic growth.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby BigTex » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 12:19:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'T')here appear to be a lot of people on these forums, and others, who kind of get the picture but can't quite make it all the way. They can't see that we may well need to jettison all that we think is good about modern civilization (whether it is objectively good or not), in order to attain a durable society. The idea of infinite economic growth seems to underlie the opinions of most, even if they deny infinite economic growth.


Ever wonder why skepticism regarding human desire and a rejection of worldliness are underlying principles in so many world religions?

Perhaps it's because these tendencies truly are incredibly destructive to the long term survivability of our species, not to mention the corrosive effect it has on the individual's sense of peace.

Modern civilization is like a 1970s-era custom van with an airbrushed mural of a great city on the side and a bumper sticker that says "If it feels good do it!", except that when the van doors open, instead of the scent of sinsemilla, a cloud of exhaust from fossil fuel burning drifts out.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby AlterEgo » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 12:37:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he few I alienate is not worth worrying about. I get lots of pm's. Most of them are about admiring my patience with posters like yourself.


I used to teach Nursing. Every semester I had a new crop of baby nurses. Every semester, I had to teach the same thing over and over and over. It was a constant battle to remind myself that though I had said the same thing a hundred times, it was new to this student. It was a constant battle to remind myself of this, and not get frustrated or impatient.
Because it's all about the oil.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby mos6507 » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 12:52:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')Ever wonder why skepticism regarding human desire and a rejection of worldliness are underlying principles in so many world religions?


There is also a lot of unhealthy repression of natural urges in religion.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby AlterEgo » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 17:07:04

Medical ethics is one topic that needs to be discussed on PO.com that hasn't already been discussed. It is an interesting blind spot that relates to population issues, and is as much of a forbidden topic as population control. Judging from my po.com search, it is an even bigger sacred cow than population control. Medical ethics is a one way street which has increasingly focused on deontological physician-patient relationships, with no-holds-barred to save an individual patient, regardless of cost to the greater society. Bioethics is a bit more utilitarian and systems-focused, accounting for the cost to the society of care and the issue of the greater good. The link below has some good definitions.

http://www.lifeissues.net/writers/gui/gui_001.html

My concern is that medical ethics is a sacred cow which impacts our survivability. I believe that this will be one of the last attitudes to change in the face of peak oil. There is a difference between caring and curing, and I see us heading to the wall at 80 mph attempting to cure. How do we stop all-out treatment of individuals who cannot be saved; how do we triage effectively? Will the lessened value of human life on an over-populated planet help in this cultural shift? Or should I just stop the mental masturbation and hope that a plague takes care of all of it?
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Postby Ludi » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 17:21:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlterEgo', 'H')ow do we stop all-out treatment of individuals who cannot be saved;


I'm not convinced all-out treatment of individuals who cannot be saved has any significant impact on the population.
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