[kpeavey]

Let me first qualify my remarks as being completely from the view of the layman. I took a psych course in college, bagged most of the classes, showed up for the test. One of the few classes I actually passed.

What I see from my desk, in the peakoil.com world, are waves of symptoms manifesting in members posts. For a while there was the comic relief. Lots of posts concerning humor, comics, jokes, pretty much yucking it up. It was a distraction, particularly among the doomer leaning members. Frustration has shown up in aa number of posts. Right now I see hostility. After 4+ years I finally set some blooming idiot on ignore. I have not even set John Denver on Ignore. What's next?

The more advanced members, those who have done the research, done their homework, understand the pervasive nature of the problem facing the world, are forced to sit on their hands. They know what will happen, they do their preps like good schoolchildren, teach the newcomers what they can. Still, their hands are tied. There is only so much we can do, and knowing the details, we know here is no amount of preps that are enough. We exceeded the point of no return decades before we even became aware of the problem.

What does the future hold? Let me tell you: Governments polarizing in authoritarian and totalitarian ways. Civil rights tossed to the side for the sake of the greater good. Goods which were once plentiful found out of stock, unavailable regardless of the price. Energy unavailable for heating, lighting, using the most basic of tools, including the fridge and TV, again, regardless of price. A shutdown of civil services, ambulance, fire, rescue, cops, streetlights, garbage collection, water treatment, even mail on a regular basis is threatened. It's not just threatened, it's on the way out the door and reaching for its hat. The system of money and exchange turning into worthless paper, practically overnight. All that we have worked for, so hard, for so many years, being wasted and lost; Taken by the government to give to the people that are useless to begin with, stolen by those same useless scumbags, or absorbed by corporations in the interest of dividends by stockholders and speculators living it up in some penthouse in some big city, all under the pretext of public domain.

The very nature of our being is threatened. There are no easy answers. There is no technical solution. Catabolic collapse is inevitable, not only that, but just a few years away. The warning signs have been posted. The stage is set. The predictions we made just a few years ago are coming to fruition and there's not a goddam thing we can do to stop it. The human species is facing a dieoff for which there is no historical precedent. Resource depletion, global warming/climate change, economics of debt, soil loss/erosion/salinization/condos, poulation growth, Holocene extinction/loss of biodiversity, irrigation overdraft, resource wars, exponential growth, sustainability. We know about it, we try to talk about it but all we get is people turning away from the conversation to watch American Idol.

Chicken Little is one thing. We have the facts, scientific studies up the wazoo, data and news reports coming in every single day supporting our view yet we can't stop the tide. We can scream at the top of our lungs on the tallest building in town. All that happens is the cops take us in, our families and friends ostracize us, nobody looks at us as being sane ever again. The worst part of all is that, deep down, to the very core of our being, we don't just believe, we know: WE ARE RIGHT.

The whole world is in a daydream. We made the projections/predictions years ago. They are showing up much faster than we expected, and at a higher rate of increase/decrease than we expected, even in our most conservative models. Not only were we right, the whole thing is so much larger than we could have imagined, we are experiencing our own form of shock. Not denial, as with the sheep, I'm talking gasping for air type of shock.

The Red Pill is not without its own side effects. I see people every day, sum them up as dead already, potential survivor, MZB, or target. I've learned to keep my mouth SHUT. I use cash for purchases. I've developed an actual system for shopping. I have baggy clothes in the closet for when the food runs out and everyone is starving so I can look like everyone else in the crowd. I've got 15 different ways to make coffee, some of them without giving off an odor the neighbors can detect. I've got more beans in the house than a chili factory. I've developed a paranoia such that when the cashier wants my phone number. for marketing purposes, I give her the number of the local cops, the closest Walmart or a series 555-1234 and drop it there. I have more guns and ammunition in the house than they had at WACO, Weaver's, and Kazinski's place combined (that should get the FBI guys knocking).

I expect the next step, or side effect, would be separation. There will be those amongst us who separate themselves from the rest of the world. Either in their own world to the exclusion of everyone else or quietly assimilating into a rural community and developing a relationship with the locals with a sustainable niche in order to survive the coming nightmare. This is the path I will most likely take. I can't make a difference in the world, but I can make a difference in MY world. I just have to leave the rest of it behind to live or die at their pleasure.

I have no children. I do have sisters and a brother. I care greatly for all of them, even though my brother and I don't always see eye to eye (mostly because he's wrong.) They all have kids. I treat them as if they were my own. I'm the favorite uncle (read:Crazy Uncle.) They represent my future. They are the battle for which I am willing to lay down my life.

[BigTex]

kpeavey, that's a great post. I think you are feeling exactly what I was describing--pre-traumatic stress disorder.

It sounds like all of your preps still haven't provided you with a high degree of peace of mind, and I think more and more people like you and us will begin to feel that way--i.e., there are certainly preps to be done, but there are some things that are hard to prep for, maybe impossible.

The more you invest in a negative future scenario, too, I think it can potentially make it harder to live peacefully in the present, which can be incredibly frustrating.

Very thorny problems, and mostly between the ears no less.

[RedStateGreen]

Just thinking about this, I've decided that this is going to be the best we're going to get. Worrying about tomorrow is just stealing my happiness from the lovely fan blowing cool air at me, the sweet iced tea I have here, the nice soft rug under my feet, and the fact that I can talk to you all over the internet. How much better can life get?

I refuse to destroy the best days of my life with negativity. Anyone who sees me being negative from now on can slap me (in a virtual sense ).

[Hagakure_Leofman]

Interesting topic. I believe it could be called anticipatory anxiety. I certainly isolate between hopefulness and a feeling of anxiety for what's happening, and what's coming up.

For those who feel similar, I'd recommend watching a short 25 minute video of David Holmgren (co-originator of Permaculture) discussing the reasons why there may very well be a positive future - in contrast to what Richard Heinburg suggested in Powerdown; that 'last name standing' may be inevitable.

Holmgren suggests that resource wars aren't necessarily the consequence of energy depletion, and that attempts to take resources from one another will be subject to the laws of entropy, and with world wide information networks illustrating this obvious fact (consider Iraq and it's lack of success in this department), it will become very obvious that co-operating during 'powerdown' is more desirable than conflict.

He discusses a range of future possibilities. Watching this left me with a positive outlook. David's a good man.

It's well worth watching

Video

[Waterthrush]

How about anticipating some of the good? I wrote in another forum about the welcome quiet from air conditioners run at all hours. I also really think that traffic has calmed down. Just tonight I stopped at a new farmer's market, with true locally farmed vegetables, meats, breads, and cheeses. High end stuff - yet the prices were not so terribly higher than the normal products from the grocery stores any more. And I think the folks across the field from me might have gotten rid of their ATV!

There's plenty of bad to come, but so far there's been good as well.

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'M')aybe some of the experts here can help out, but I was reading and the idea of planning was referred to as "memories of the future". This got me to thinking about how if a plan is experienced in some way psychologically as a "memory" of the future, or perhaps a projection of future events, plans based upon unhappy assumptions such as peak oil could have unintended psychological effects in the present.

This would be something akin to "pre-traumatic stress disorder"--i.e., the stress of an event not-yet-experienced causes symptoms similar to the more traditional post-traumatic stresss disorder.

Any thoughts on this idea?

[Revi]

We happen to be the few that can sense what's happening. We know what the future will hold. I guess that's pre-traumatic stress disorder.

I feel like we're on the Titanic, and the lower classes are being quietly locked beneath the decks. The rich are already taking off in the lifeboats, and us middle class passengers are up on deck, listening to the band play on. When we talk to the other passengers they insist that everything is fine, and that the captain is having a wonderful lunch for everybody. I am going to eat the lunch, but then I am going to continue tying together every deck chair I can find to make a raft. I can feel the deck tipping already...

[allmeyer]

My "pre-traumatic stress disorder" is not being able to fall asleep at night. But my happy thought is "at least no more 8 to 5 Monday through Friday." I don't want to think about what will replace it though.

[Wren]

I am loving this topic. For me, I've "understood" peak oil for about three years. I didn't have a computer and didn't ever use one. Having just sort of ending up with one now, all this community stuff on this site and ALL the info out there is more of a comfort to me than anything. I'm thinkin- "wow, I'm not alone, crazy, OR wrong."
I agree that it's like sitting on your hands.
I talk to very few these days about nothing at all ("Oh, did you see they painted the coffeeshop?")
This is the only "safe" place for me to discuss things honestly (well, I do more reading than anything). There are a lot of angry, sarcastic people, but hey, I don't judge them. I can't say i don't understand it, although that's just not where I've gone (yet?).
Ultimately, I'm a poor/working class woman with two kids. I am not the smartest person, nor the most resourceful. I have no family around me other than husband and kids. I could be one of the first to suffer seriously, or to go even. I know I'm vulnerable. But, I'm not weak, and even though there are smarter people, I'm no dummy. I hope i can rely somehow on my wits in the future.
And if we (me & my family) make it through the initial contraction period/s, I feel it will be a better world for my grand kids to live in. Maybe even my own children. I think it will be, I really do.
But, I've been wrong before?

[CarlinsDarlin]

I've been feeling this for a while now. I just didn't have a name for it. I think your choice is as good as any, Tex. And as much as I hate to, I have to admit that much of what you say is the way I also feel kpeavey. I've also seen the change in postings recently. And FWIW, my degree is in Psychology. Your assumptions about the way people are behaving are correct from my vantage point.

I also hope to be one of those who disappears into our rural area, and who can affect change and make a difference here. Perhaps only for a few people, perhaps only in a small way, but at least I can do something here.

When I was growing up here, the road was red dirt. The few cars that passed were always recognized, and all the old ladies always looked out the window to see who was driving by. We used to sled down the middle of the road when it snowed, because even on a clear day there were few cars. When it snowed there were none. We didn't have air conditioning till I was in high school. I slept with my window open at night and listened to the whipporwills. I guess we were borderline poor, but we didn't know it. Everyone was just like us around here.

If we go back to that, it won't be so bad. Getting there, though, won't be much fun.
Kathy

[wellbehaved]

Grief has a process...denial, disbelief, anger and acceptance. It isn´t always linear. I have been going through DENIAL for three years. I told myself when the price of a barrel of oil went to 125.00 we were doomed. The day it shot up 11.00 in one day I thought OK this is the end. I was freaking out. I wanted to cancel our summer vacation to Mexico. (NOT A LUXURY VACATION BY THE WAY. Our family lives there and we have spent our summers there for years.)

Over the past couple of weeks, we have developed a plan, put away some cash and we planning to move to small agricultural community. I have worked there for years. (I should say I have developed a plan and my husband is supportive). I too get the eye-rolling thing, but I have started framing the way I talk about peak oil in a way that people can digest.

But the point is I have accepted that the world is going to look very different and be very different in a very short time. Is stockpiling arms or preparing for a ¨mad max¨sort of scenario going to change anything? Or if everyone just buys a hybrid car and rides their bike more will everything be ok?

No. Many of Americans are at the top of the food chain and sadly many, many people are going to suffer and many more in the world are going to die. This is the reality.

But, humanity has an opportunity and it is possible to change this dire situation we are in.

I am a realist with optimism. I think that communities can mobilize and become healthy models of sustainability. I hope I am right and I have to believe in the goodness of humanity and the potential each person has to make change happen. If I keep saying nothing will change, nothing will change.

Food for thought, courtesy of Dr. Suess.
"But now," says the Once-ler, "Now that you´re here, the word of the Lorax seems perfectly clear. UNLESS someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothis going to get better. It´s not"

Peace.

[eXpat]

That was a very good post kpeavey, my feelings exactly. In a way, when I realized what is the kind of future that will come as a consequence of PO, I used to think like that, you know, making preps for the future, food, ammo, solar heaters and all the essentials. During that phase of life I used to live for the future, planifying, stockpiling, trying to see what the best choices were, trying to be one step ahead so to speak.
Later on I started too, to understand the effects of Climate change, levels of CO2, methane, etc.
That has changed again my mind setup, what kpeavey, described above, I consider that is what it is in store for the next 50 years or so, I don´t think Humanity will survive the next 100 years (along, by the way, with most of the species in the planet). The damage is too big, the consequences are terrifying, and are starting to unfold.
In a way, from a personal point of view, this is more liberating. The outcome is already decided. What I can prepare for, is already in place, but I not longer feel the same pressure like in a PO scenario to prepare for the future, because unfortunately I really think that in the long term there´s not future for us.

[BigTex]

Thanks for the great posts. I'm happy that I am having a feeling that is shared by others--validation, even of something a little dark, is reassuring.

I think that dwelling upon negative future scenarios can't be healthy psychologically, and yet ignoring them can't be good for one's long term survival prospects either.

Finding the right mental posture is difficult.

Putting it out of your mind to focus on day-to-day tasks can also be difficult.

[wisconsin_cur]

I do not know if I can add anything substantive only to say that I am feeling it as well, and it comes out in some odd ways... some productive, some less so.

I am more likely to yell at the family dog, I am more likely to read an extra story to the boys at bed time. I am less likely to smile and nod when someone is blowing smoke, I am more likely to jump the gun in making a harsh point in a discussion when it has to do with responsibilities in the household.

What we are experiencing is called pressure, of an anticipatory sort for most of us at the moment but pressure none the less. There is only so much time, there is no one who will do the jobs that we need to do for us, the stakes are high.

[Hagakure_Leofman]

It's all about personal congruency. Or better yet, Sartre's concept of existential 'Bad Faith'. I would make the assumption, that the more knowledge of impending future change, the more imperative to act. When the future knowledge is in harmony with the required action to change or adapt, cognitive dissidence is reduced. Whereas, when the knowledge of future change is high, and the action to adapt and change is low, cognitive dissidence is high resulting in high anxiety.

In other words, the more you prepare and adapt to the future, the less anxious you feel. Returning to Sartre;

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') critical claim in existentialist thought is that we are always radically free to make choices and guide our lives towards our own chosen goal (or 'project').

[wisconsin_cur]

I would just make one adjustment.

If you have prepared but realize that any amount of preparation does not insure against a highly discontinous future, one that cannot be completely prepared for, one for which preparation may prove in vain then one might experience "Pre-TSD."

This is different than the anxiety that I felt when I first learned of Peak Oil. The first case was akin to realizing that I would someday grow old. This is the mid-life crisis.

[Hagakure_Leofman]

I think it's worth noting for the comic side of things, that this topic is a misnomer. Like 'Pre-board' or 'Pre-Heat'.

On another note, it doesn't take much observation to recognize the present trauma inherent in our current energy rich way of life. Just look and the volume of anti-depressant prescriptions for one indication. Therefore, our tendency to worry about the future might indeed just be a symptom of our current way of life.

As that way of life changes during energy decent, we may indeed forget our anxiety and laugh at our previous fears; we might even start to enjoy life once more.

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hagakure_Leofman', '
')
On another note, it doesn't take much observation to recognize the present trauma inherent in our current energy rich way of life. Just look and the volume of anti-depressant prescriptions for one indication. Therefore, our tendency to worry about the future might indeed just be a symptom of our current way of life.

[Hagakure_Leofman]

From what you're saying Wisconsin, I'm getting "better the devil you know than the devil you don't..."? Is that accurate?

I don't think the world is really falling apart. If I entertain that thought, I have to admit to myself that I'm really just entertaining myself. What I think is really happening is just a redistribution or shifting in values. Yesterday, a Hummer was of value. Tomorrow, a hand operated grain mill will be of value. Between today and tomorrow there might be some argument. Someone might even get shot! It's happened before.

I've observed a circularity of things in my life. To live like my grandfather seems more reasonable than to live like my father. Perhaps my father felt the same way about his grandfather. The difference might have only been found what was valued or coveted. Be it a Mercedes Benz or a Clydesdale horse.

We'd have to think of ourselves as pretty special to believe we're seeing the end of the world. Don't you think it's just another revolution of the earth around the sun?

[BigTex]

One thing that makes me uneasy is thinking back to those people who made elaborate preps based upon the perceived CERTAINTY that nuclear war would occur. They invested a tremendous amount based upon this belief, and on some level it would have been hard not to sort of WANT the bad thing to happen, just because we all want validation of our beliefs.

But nuclear war did not happen (yet, anyway), and thus the people who built much of their lives around preparing for it likely wasted a lot of valuable mental and physical energy on something that was unnecessary.

The thing that I keep coming back to is that the future is fundamentally un-knowable. Thus, even if we think we know the general direction things will go, we may be wrong. We may be utterly wrong. Or, we may be right, but be off by 50 or 100 years, which is functionally the same as being wrong.

In some ways, we're too smart for our own good. Sort of like a hot rod with enough torque from the engine to destroy the differential if you push it too hard.