[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jlw61', 'T')his is very interesting information and I'm not surprised to hear it. I do however believe you will find that there will be shortages in certain kinds of things. For instance, while Virginia will be swimming in peaches, Wisconsin will be full of apples because, I believe, truck shipping plays a big part on the distribution of those items. How California will be able to ship all of its produce, I haven't a clue.

The north south runs will still have the railroads (FL oranges come up along I-95 by the train load) but the East-West migration of food is going to be a bit of a problem. I suspect the worst shortages will be, as you said, canned and fresh foods if it is traveling East or West. The railroads will still be hauling for a long time, but it takes longer and I don't know how well the railroads can ramp up on refrigerator cars.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')aybe we'll get out of Iraq and Afghanistan when people start starving here in large numbers?

[MarkJ]

No shortages in my area of Upstate New York, other than the shortage of 75 cent 32 ounce Gatorade that I may have caused at Wal-Mart Super Center.

Wal-Mart Super Center, Hannaford, Price-Chopper, Mom & Pops and Convenience Stores all have plenty of food. Sometimes the summer tourism and barbecue crowd takes crowd takes an unexpectedly large bite out of the supply chain. Since more people are buying in bulk, sometimes the people stocking shelves can't keep up.

[heroineworshipper]

It depends on the food. Certain kinds of grain & chicken are always gone. Where in the 80's you could always have exactly what you wanted, people have gotten used to not always having exactly what they want. They're not going hungry yet.

[GeoJAP]

As others have noted, I agree with the theory that as soon as JIT shipping is disrupted, you will start to see minor disruptions in the food supply at the point of sale to the public.

Listen to those involved in wholesale and the trucking/transporation industry. I have found that those who work at the point of sale don't have very much information.

[canis_lupus]

Buddy of mine has worked in truck transportation his whole life. Chatting yesterday he said that since January, 937 trucking companies have gone under, from mom-and-pops to Jevic, which had 1400 people. The 30% fuel surcharge they are passing on doesn't cover it anymore.

I have been looking for the paperwork on this stat: in the event of a truckers' strike, there is only three days worth of food in our supermarkets. Can anybody here refute this? I've been digging around the Net and can't find anything.

It is interesting how record fuel prices have shoved record food prices off the front page!

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('canis_lupus', '
')I have been looking for the paperwork on this stat: in the event of a truckers' strike, there is only three days worth of food in our supermarkets. Can anybody here refute this? I've been digging around the Net and can't find anything.

[Twilight]

The 2000 refinery blockades pointed the way. It depends on shelf life and consequent frequency of rotation. Milk, bread and fresh convenience food is delivered every morning, so there is only ever two days' worth. Meat, cheese, other perishable goods, a day or two longer. Canned food and cereals, you are looking at a week or two. That is, assuming no unusual demand response, and there really wasn't any that time. There was a week of serious transport disruption, by the end of which there was little milk, bread and especially meat (restaurants were making apologies too), but plenty of boxed and bagged cereals. Because the protests were of such short duration and return to normal service so rapid (road tankers had been the only real bottleneck), everything was back to normal within days without any further stress testing.

Based on that, three days or even a week is not a problem provided people do not freak out and service is restored quickly.

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')aybe we'll get out of Iraq and Afghanistan when people start starving here in large numbers?

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'D')ig this. This morning my trucking broker friend calls and we touch base on PO, although He hasn’t been a believer in the past, he's starting to come around. We get talking about food prices (that’s what he’s runs, fruit from Cali). He goes on to tell me, theirs no money in hauling can-goods. Then he tells me about his brother who sent a truck down to Texas for some can-goods and made a total of $500. Fuel costs alone were $3,600. Not enough profit to cover tire wear. The big corporations are not willing to pay the current shipping costs. So, these independents will get squeezed so much that stuff will not get transported SOON! Anyhoo, he figures we will start seeing food shortages within three Months and or if fuel rises another $1 gal. And, on top of that, he say’s you better start stocking up. This is from someone who just bought an F-350 4 door. :Shocked:

[ohcomeon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('canis_lupus', 'I') have been looking for the paperwork on this stat: in the event of a truckers' strike, there is only three days worth of food in our supermarkets. Can anybody here refute this? I've been digging around the Net and can't find anything.

[ohcomeon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'W')on't they "just" have to raise the prices, give more to the trucker or the trucking company to make it profitable again?

[jlw61]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jlw61', 'T')his is very interesting information and I'm not surprised to hear it. I do however believe you will find that there will be shortages in certain kinds of things. For instance, while Virginia will be swimming in peaches, Wisconsin will be full of apples because, I believe, truck shipping plays a big part on the distribution of those items. How California will be able to ship all of its produce, I haven't a clue.
The north south runs will still have the railroads (FL oranges come up along I-95 by the train load) but the East-West migration of food is going to be a bit of a problem. I suspect the worst shortages will be, as you said, canned and fresh foods if it is traveling East or West. The railroads will still be hauling for a long time, but it takes longer and I don't know how well the railroads can ramp up on refrigerator cars.

[kpeavey]

A nationwide truckers strike of a scale which would have the effect of drawing down supermarket supplies could prompt the government (federal at least) to drop diesel fuel taxes. The loss of revenue would be a drop in the bucket compared to the money currently being printed to bail out banks. It is in the interest of the government to keep the distribution system moving to preserve order.

The fuel taxes would be a help to the truckers, and may get them back on the road, but the shipping contracts have to actually pay enough to cover expenses. The government has no control over this. Price increases will have to be passed on to the consumer. I can see some marketplace disruption being needed to rearrange industry price structures. How long it takes, I have no clue. The American consumer will be able to put up with it for a few days, but when the Angel Soft runs out, there will be an uproar. Keep an eye on the trucking strike in Spain to get an idea of how long it will take before panic buying sets in.

[Chef_Rich]

I purchase foodstuffs from several suppliers.
Mainly GFS, Sysco, and US Foodservice.
So far, I have not had many problems with out of stock items.
The only change has been the addition of a fuel surcharge to deliveries.

If anything shortage related develops, I will post it pronto.

[joelcolorado]

I work for the RR. We cannot handle any more freight. And produce too hard to handle anyway. We move on ton of freight, 500 miles on one GALLON of fuel so a good resource.

[Mack12345]

Hi guys ,
Some of you might remember me . I made a post a few weeks back regarding my observations in the grocery store in my area where I work as a stocker .
Well , since there was some intrest I felt I would update with a few new happenings that I feel might be peak oil / economic colapse related .
First of all , the normal forth of july sales spike never really happened this year . Sales did rise at my store but not by nearly as much as they did last year .
Even more interesting to me that the lackluster fourth of july sales were the sales distribution numbers . Normaly the sales distribution numbers show a large spike in sales for the following types of mercandise that we sell .
1. Fresh meats .. "Steaks, hamburgers, hotdogs" ect that are used typicaly at family BBQ's .. which are very popular in my part of the country . Astoundingly "to me anyway" sales in this area actualy dropped about 4% from last years numbers . This has never happened in my experience . Sales ALLWAYS trumkp the previous year at least slightly .
2. Fresh produce .. "Lettuce, onions, tomatoes, water melons" .. also trappings of the aformentioned family BBQ . While there was no real drop here .. the increase was so minimal that I would personaly consider the sales to have stagnated "failed to grow" in comparison to last year .
3. BBQ related novelty items.. "Grills , Aprons , tablecloths" These items suffered the most dramatic loss compared to last year .. an unprecidented "for my store" 23% drop off ... This has actualy let my management to start changeing Mods to remove these products and fill space with outher items with higher demand .
4 . Beer .. "Pretty sure yall know what that is" Beer sales faired the best ... gaining about 3% in sales over last year "Considered a very nice , if not earthshakeing gain .

Now the outher abnormality i have noted ... Some products that normal dont spike by a ton on the weekend of the fourth did indeed spike in sales .

These items "in adition to beer" .. are the following ..

1. Canned meats... "Spam, corned beef, potted meat"
2. Ramen noodles ... "Self explanitory"
3. icecream ... "Self explanitory"

While I do not have exact numbers .. these items all sold considerably well .. in my personal opinion PHENOMINALY well .. My store actualy ran completely out of ramen noodles on the saturday after the fourth .

I considered the facts interesting .. so I decided to share them with you guys/gals . Hope it dosent bore yall to much .

My location is south eastern tennessee .. if that is of intrest .

************

As a sidenote ... Both Starkist and "Great value" Brand tunafish **Please note the great value brand is marketed at many different stores under a host of generic brand names**
Decresed there standard can size from 6oz to 5 oz in my store at least "as well as all near by grocerys ."
This was a "stelth price increse" as they downsized the amount while leaveing the price unchanged ... hopeing consumers will not notice .
Thought that might also be of some intrest to some of you ... seems more and more brands are doing this ,unknown to the average consumer .

**************

Now on a personal note ,
I would like to comment here on my own preperations for the impending colapse ... just on the off chance there might be advise or comments anyone wants to share .

Please remember I have only been peak oil aware for about 4 months .. so I have had to scramble to do what i can .

1 . My personal fitness has taken good strides .. after a lifetime as a 310lb couch potato I have dropped down to 260lbs ... My calistenics routine has advanced from my 5 pushup/sit up starting point to 25 of each .. everyday .
I also made a legit stab at quiting smokeing .. i failed .. I will try again soon .. this time im going to use the gum .
2 . Im happy to report I was able to trade out for a car thats much better on gas .
3. my food stockpile is still growing stedily ... id say with my current eating habits "WAY WAY lower than they were 6 months ago" I have a solid 2 month suply of food built up .
4 . i bought the first firearm I have owned in my life .. a shotgun ... I have ammo for it but i havent shot it yet . I am looking into getting a 9mm and joining a handgun club at the shooting range near my home .

To be honest thats about all I have acomplished so far .. but i feel I have at least done something .

Ok , well thank you all for your very informitive and helpfull posts here ... I hope my little contribution is of intrest to some of you .

Best regards ..

[jlw61]

Thanks! I wish we had more front line posters like you. The tuna thing caught me by surprise and I will be looking for that the next time I go shopping. I'm not greatly unhappy about it as 6 oz of tuna is more than my wife and I can eat at a meal after I've mixed it into some dish.

As for the other things, some of it just reflects my impression of what's happening at the grocery stores and helps explain why certain items (such as grilling accessories) are going away.

BTW, are strike-anywere matches readily available there? I found only one place so far that carries them here in central Virginia.

Also, recently there was a huge increase in soup prices, here... have you seen that, there?

[Heineken]

Thanks for this interesting post, Mack, and for the time and effort you put into it.

Those "stealth" price increases are awfully disturbing. One wonders where they will eventually lead---to cans of tuna the size of bottle caps?

Do everything you can to achieve your goal of quitting smoking. It's a horribly difficult addiction to rid yourself of, but if other people have done it, so can you! They're no tougher than you are.

Consider getting a stationary bicycle or Nordic Track or just taking up a walking program. (I know, you may not feel like climbing on a bicycle after a shift stocking shelves!) Frequent aerobic exercise seems to work in opposition to the smoking habit.

[Cashmere]

Mack - I like you. Good job. Keep it up.