Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Re: Another Oil price Record

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby Doly » Sat 24 May 2008, 18:43:09

For those who want a source, the prices for whale oil and similar resources that we have managed to deplete in the past can be found here:

http://www.aspoitalia.net/index.php?opt ... &Itemid=99

I think even more interesting that the extremely fast rise in the last week, is what happened to oil futures. The Financial Times report:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Oil prices jumped as much as 7 per cent this week, peaking on Thursday at a record $135.09. The price of long-term oil contracts outpaced the spot price, surging as much as 15 per cent as confidence that supplies could meet demand in the next five to 10 years crumbled.


Any explanation of why, all of a sudden, a lot of people (or at least some very big players) "got" peak oil?
What are you doing about peak oil?
I am doing this
(click on the www button) v
User avatar
Doly
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4370
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby charliehelyes » Sat 24 May 2008, 19:22:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Oil prices jumped as much as 7 per cent this week, peaking on Thursday at a record $135.09. The price of long-term oil contracts outpaced the spot price, surging as much as 15 per cent as confidence that supplies could meet demand in the next five to 10 years crumbled.


Any explanation of why, all of a sudden, a lot of people (or at least some very big players) "got" peak oil?

a few reasons maybe a tipping point was reached enough people believed for it to seem credible for the masses. Also simply declining demand couldnt be explained away on speculation
User avatar
charliehelyes
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 86
Joined: Sun 27 Mar 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby Niagara » Sun 25 May 2008, 12:30:31

{bump}

Welcome visitors, this is one of the more popular threads here. One you'll want to watch closely.
User avatar
Niagara
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 612
Joined: Thu 17 Aug 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Mt. Hubbert Scenic Lookout

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby eastbay » Mon 26 May 2008, 02:30:09

Back up to $133.00 in Asian trading this Sunday before Memorial Day.

yes, this is one of a few MUST read threads.
Got Dharma?

Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
User avatar
eastbay
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7186
Joined: Sat 18 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 26 May 2008, 04:59:26

Thanks for the link, doly.

Yes, the behavior in the long-term futures market does suggest that some kind of PO awakening is going on in some corners. This could make for an interesting week. Perhaps some major movement even on Tuesday?
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 19990
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby lowem » Mon 26 May 2008, 07:58:44

NYMEX crude oil did a vertical take-off in the afternoon (Singapore local) and is at $133.40. And going strong.

From a technical point of view, we're still sort of in the middle of nowhere, having bounced off the $130 support level, and heading for the next set of resistance levels which should be $150, $180, $200 and beyond. Support levels are $130, $120, $110, $100 and $90.

A warm welcome to new visitors.

Hope you enjoy the ride.
Live quotes - oil/gold/silver
User avatar
lowem
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1901
Joined: Mon 19 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Singapore

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby lawnchair » Mon 26 May 2008, 10:13:58

It looks like the MEND Nigerian rebels are back. Another pipeline destruction and 11 soldiers killed this morning.

BBC
At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
User avatar
lawnchair
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 866
Joined: Wed 20 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Mon 26 May 2008, 21:02:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lawnchair', 'I')t looks like the MEND Nigerian rebels are back. Another pipeline destruction and 11 soldiers killed this morning.

BBC


Add this to the sudden "awakening" to PO by the mainstream press and tomorrow is likely to be very interesting. Add a weekly petroleum report like last week and we soar past $150 this week.

I would also like to take this opportunity to welcome all our new visitors. So, welcome =) !
User avatar
PeakingAroundtheCorner
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 522
Joined: Sun 08 Apr 2007, 03:00:00

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby eastbay » Mon 26 May 2008, 21:16:34

Nice bump up to $133.25 right now. Is that due to US speculators? Of course not. We are all on holiday today!! :)


The stuff is just getting scarcer. That's all there is to it.
Got Dharma?

Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
User avatar
eastbay
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7186
Joined: Sat 18 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby bodigami » Mon 26 May 2008, 23:39:37

It looks quite solid at $132 +/- $3, neither up or down much from that range. Let's wait to see what happens before the start of next week.
bodigami
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 1921
Joined: Wed 26 Jul 2006, 03:00:00

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Tue 27 May 2008, 01:37:12

Have folks seen the latest bs in the msm about making oil spec illegal or the like. That would just keep prices too low relative too supply and demand produce shortages. Folks here in the states are too entitled to their dream world.
g
TreebeardsUncle
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 683
Joined: Thu 15 Jun 2006, 03:00:00

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 27 May 2008, 10:16:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'H')ave folks seen the latest bs in the msm about making oil spec illegal or the like. That would just keep prices too low relative too supply and demand produce shortages. Folks here in the states are too entitled to their dream world.
g


The complexities of the oil trading market are too difficult for most to understand. Even so, all sorts have people have jumped into the debate offering their opinions without any rational basis or proof.

For example, the worldwide shortage of diesel is what's driving the price of oil higher. Since only about 50% of a barrel of oil can be made into diesel, it's quite possible that incremental demand for oil has increased twice as fast as would be indicated by looking at only - for example - the actual increase in diesel demand.

That's just one part of the oil price puzzle. There are many others.
Even us experts (if I am one) can't figure this all out and come up with a fair price for oil.
User avatar
DantesPeak
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6277
Joined: Sat 23 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Jersey
Top

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby sjn » Tue 27 May 2008, 10:23:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'H')ave folks seen the latest bs in the msm about making oil spec illegal or the like. That would just keep prices too low relative too supply and demand produce shortages. Folks here in the states are too entitled to their dream world.
g


The complexities of the oil trading market are too difficult for most to understand. Even so, all sorts have people have jumped into the debate offering their opinions without any rational basis or proof.

For example, the worldwide shortage of diesel is what's driving the price of oil higher. Since only about 50% of a barrel of oil can be made into diesel, it's quite possible that incremental demand for oil has increased twice as fast as would be indicated by looking at only - for example - the actual increase in diesel demand.

That's just one part of the oil price puzzle. There are many others.
Even us experts (if I am one) can't figure this all out and come up with a fair price for oil.
You are as much an expert in this field as anyone, Dante.
User avatar
sjn
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 1332
Joined: Wed 09 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Location: UK
Top

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 27 May 2008, 10:56:00

US consumption is down 4.3% from March of last year. $100.00+ per barrel had to take its toll sooner or later.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7450
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby whereagles » Tue 27 May 2008, 12:43:34

yup. it's going DOWN, DOWN, DOWN-DOWN-DOWN!
User avatar
whereagles
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 586
Joined: Wed 17 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Portugal

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby Dan1195 » Tue 27 May 2008, 19:40:51

Decent pullback today. Question is are we finally going to see a correction or is this just a kneejerk reaction due the report about demand in the U.S. going down. If its just a reaction to that report it will just be temporary as any decline in demand here will be offset by countries like China which subsidize the cost of gasoline. Yes Indonesia said it was going to stop subsidizing but since they do not use much oil any effects resulting from demand destruction here will be very minor.
User avatar
Dan1195
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 277
Joined: Sat 19 Mar 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby alokin » Tue 27 May 2008, 19:47:12

bloomberg

they tell that Russian production may rise
User avatar
alokin
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1255
Joined: Fri 24 Aug 2007, 03:00:00

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby chuck6877 » Tue 27 May 2008, 22:58:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dan1195', 'D')ecent pullback today. Question is are we finally going to see a correction or is this just a kneejerk reaction due the report about demand in the U.S. going down. If its just a reaction to that report it will just be temporary as any decline in demand here will be offset by countries like China which subsidize the cost of gasoline. Yes Indonesia said it was going to stop subsidizing but since they do not use much oil any effects resulting from demand destruction here will be very minor.


It does look like the correction has begun.

Most technical analysts are scratching their heads on how overbought WTIC got on the MACD and RSI. WTIC also broke through longterm and intermediate trendlines.

It does appear in the future oil will climb at even faster percentage gains than in the past but one thing is for certain: Oil like anything else though will always go TWO STEPS FORWARD AND ONE STEP BACK unless there is a black swan event like war with Iran.

The steps back in the oil price are important and necessary in a bull market. Remember this in the future guys when you're all saying "IT's DIFFERENT this time."

You all got giddy like little girls watching the price go up. Shame on all of you. People are suffering out there.

We should all WANT TO BE WRONG ABOUT THE OIL PRICE GOING UP! ( Unfortunately, we're not though :( )

Chuck
User avatar
chuck6877
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 513
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby idiom » Wed 28 May 2008, 00:09:30

For me its all still happening to people out there in internet land.

And I am a huge fan of Fallout, Stalker and Mad Max.

Not being in a target zone, ThermoNuclear War is still something that might happen to other people.

I did see the price of LPG go up by 10 cents while I was sitting in a forecourt. Even then it made me giddy. I am still 'Woohooo look at how much I am paying!!'

is this a bad sign?
User avatar
idiom
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 672
Joined: Mon 23 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Zealand

Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 28 May 2008, 02:57:38

Chuck, I think you are mistaking occasional gallows humor for glee, in most cases.

There is going to be volatility, more and more of it. But the price is going to keep going up over time. This has been the standard theory of all major peak oil theorists. Day to day, and even month to month timing of prices is, of course, nearly imposible. You seem to be making quite a bit about a one day (so far) dip. We'll see how long that lasts.

And I see no reason that gas prices shouldn't continue to rise, unfortunately, even if oil price stalls for a while.

So do you see the price of oil or of gas going significantly down in the next six months? Twelve months? Two, five, ten...years?
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 19990
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 04:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Open Topic Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 22 guests