[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'S')everal "analysts" over at TF have been lamenting China's direct subsidization of gasoline for its citizens, thus creating an aberration of increased demand, and cause for crying foul of the lack of a "free market" for oil. Meanwhile, our government is handing us $600 a piece to, you know, "pay for gas." Really, which is worse? (b/c neither is the "free market" at work)

[dohboi]

Wow, I predicted that oil prices were going hyperbolic a couple days ago and now they are. Perhaps I should stop predicting now.

But really, what else could happen to oil prices on the downward slope than hyperbolic increase? Every reduction of available oil makes what's left than much more precious, and as producers realize this trend they will slow down pumping to maximize their investment.

If you could get double for a product in a month what you can get for it today, would you sell today, or wait?

The geology of post peak that underlies these increases is now augmented by multiple positive feedback loops all pushing prices up at astronomical rates that will never return to the ground.

The sole negative feedback loop of demand destruction (or better "abject poverty promotion") has not dampened the exponential growth in prices that has been going on since 2000, and it will have little effect now as we jump of the cliff into exponential growth.

You new folks on the thread, listen up. A lot of people on here have been predicting exactly the accelleration in price increases that we've been seeing not just recently but for the last few years, while most of the well-paid "experts" have been consistently wrong. So show some respect.

[Novus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', '
')You new folks on the thread, listen up. A lot of people on here have been predicting exactly the accelleration in price increases that we've been seeing not just recently but for the last few years, while most of the well-paid "experts" have been consistently wrong. So show some respect.

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('darren', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', '$')135.04

[lowem]

It's afternoon over here in sunny Singapore and crude oil prices are consolidating around the $134 level.

Have fun!

[no_name]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'T')he last day or so we have seen the fastest one day rise (in terms of US dollars). This coming on a day when political developments were actually good (Israel and Syria starting talks).

[Barbara]

It's morning here in rainy Italy and our govt is implementing dictatorship. No joking: any energy site in the national territory now is military secret. Any protest over them, and you're in jail for 1 year.
Welcome in post peak world.

[lowem]

Good evening from Singapore!

$135.09 is the new record.

[Sys1]

Barbara : dictatorship is better than a mad max scenario. At least society stands still. Here in France our government is so weak that we are unable to manage riots in suburbs or violences from people complaining about oil prices...

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'S')everal "analysts" over at TF have been lamenting China's direct subsidization of gasoline for its citizens, thus creating an aberration of increased demand, and cause for crying foul of the lack of a "free market" for oil. Meanwhile, our government is handing us $600 a piece to, you know, "pay for gas." Really, which is worse? (b/c neither is the "free market" at work)

[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('no_name', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'T')he last day or so we have seen the fastest one day rise (in terms of US dollars). This coming on a day when political developments were actually good (Israel and Syria starting talks).

[DantesPeak]

As I have mentioned numerous times, a worldwide shortage of diesel is driving the price of oil higher.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il Prices Rises Above $135 On Rising Global Demand
Associated Press
May 22, 2008 7:05 a.m.

Oil prices hit a new record above $135 a barrel and fell back slightly in Asia late Thursday, with supply worries, rising global demand and a slumping dollar keeping crude futures on an upward track.

With gas and oil prices setting new records nearly every day, many analysts are beginning to wonder what might stop prices from rising. There are technical signals in the futures market, including price differences between near-term and longer-term contracts, that crude may soon fall. But with demand for oil growing in the developing world, and little end in sight to supply problems in producing countries such as Nigeria, few analysts are willing to call an end to crude's rally.

"The sentiment in the market is very bullish at the moment," said David Moore, commodity strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. "The U.S. dollar was weaker last night, and also the U.S. EIA report showed an unexpected decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, so there's a combination of factors pushing the oil prices higher."

Some analysts say crude has been boosted in recent days by especially strong demand for diesel in China, where power plants in some areas are running desperately short of coal and certain earthquake-hit regions are relying on diesel generators for power.

For several years, the IEA has predicted that supplies of crude and other liquid fuels will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 87 million barrels a day currently. Now, the agency is worried that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to surpass 100 million barrels a day in production over the next two decades, the paper reported.

[nocar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's morning here in rainy Italy and our govt is implementing dictatorship. No joking: any energy site in the national territory now is military secret. Any protest over them, and you're in jail for 1 year.

[shortonoil]

Based on the energy model AvailableEnergy crude prices should peak this year at about $165. However, other above ground factors like hoarding, and the intentional reduction of production by some exporters could drive prices much higher.

Crude prices will continue to increase until world economic activity slows by about 3% per year. For the first few years the reduction will be closer to 5% in the US, as the US is almost twice as dependent on oil for an energy source as the rest of the industrialized world. The US will also lose some of its domestic production from its marginal wells that are now net energy losers.

It would be advisable for anyone to prepare for a future of significant declines in the general economy. DantesPeak could best advise us on what areas will be the most susceptible to this upcoming decline. Definitely do not trust economic advise coming from analysts that don’t have a firm understanding of PO.

[Mesuge]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '
')It is pretty clear now that those "experts" were being paid to lie to the public so certain moneyed interests could buy up a decade's worth oil contracts on the cheap. Many long term contracts went up $10 today. It is game over for most us in the real world.

[shortonoil]

Novus wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is pretty clear now that those "experts" were being paid to lie to the public so certain moneyed interests could buy up a decade's worth oil contracts on the cheap. Many long term contracts went up $10 today. It is game over for most us in the real world.

[Niagara]

CNBC had an interesting interview with Jim Newsome, the Nymex CEO.

He said speculators are NOT driving the price of oil. 80% of futures players are the commercials. Of the 20% open interest held by speculators, half are long, half are short so they cancel each other out.

Higher prices are driven by fundamentals, as simple as that.

Interestingly, he said Nigeria output is expected to drop 30% of the next few years. That's horrendous, I wasn't aware of that.

(No link, it was on the boob-tube)

[joewp]

I saw that interview. He's making the same point as I am in this thread http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic39996.html

It seems to upset some people.

[frankthetank]

True or False...

We will never see sub $100 oil again?