[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', ' ')I'm proud to say that in one recent year (2006) I've came very close to predicting exactly how oil high would go during the year, and I didn't do so bad in other years either.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'A')t TrendLines Research, we track the Peak Oil forecasts of 24 practitioners. Only two see peak prior to 2010. One is an investment banker and the other has called "this year" THE PEAK virtually every year since 1989. Sorry MQ, but your musings are baseless and really just wishful thinking ....

[ccpo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', '
')
Light Sweet Crude Oil peaked in 2005 and we're in a plateau since then. The production may increase, but it's a lie that we "peaked again".

[FreddyH]

The zealots at TOD are playing with y'all. EIA clarified at the April convention that it does not include non--conventional tar sands in its C&C figures.

Bitumen & syncrude are rightfully included in "other liquids"

The TOD graph is mislabeled. The 74.8-mbd Conv figure includes Conv, Condensates & Refinery Gains (2.8-mbd).

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '
')You have failed to note that it was my 2005 PO.com postings that the Peak of regular conventional crude had "unceremoniously" passed. At the time, Campbell was looking forward to a Peak of both All Liquids and reg conv in 2006. Admittedly, i was harsh in my criticism of ASPO data and conclusions at that time.

[ccpo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'T')he zealots at TOD are playing with y'all. EIA clarified at the April convention that it does not include non--conventional tar sands in its C&C figures.

Bitumen & syncrude are rightfully included in "other liquids"

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ccpo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'T')he zealots at TOD are playing with y'all. EIA clarified at the April convention that it does not include non--conventional tar sands in its C&C figures.

Bitumen & syncrude are rightfully included in "other liquids"

[ccpo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ccpo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'T')he zealots at TOD are playing with y'all. EIA clarified at the April convention that it does not include non--conventional tar sands in its C&C figures.

Bitumen & syncrude are rightfully included in "other liquids"

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ccpo', 'A')s you said, this is a new document. I'd be willing to be they weren't breaking it out before, and the chart above would have been based on the old data. Don't know this for sure. I will have to check.

[MonteQuest]

I wrote this thread in 2004.

I think I called it pretty well.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'S')ince virtually all commodities use petroleum fuel to move from production to consumption, as fuel prices rise whether by market forces or by currency decisions by OPEC to offset the loss in revenue as the dollar declines due to our trade imbalance, all commodity prices must also rise. Whew! What a mouthful! This will create inflation. To curb the inflation, the Fed will raise interest rates. And as the price of food and other essential commodities rise--along with house payments tied to variable rate mortgages--luxuries and dispensable goods and services will drop out of the family budgets and the standard of living will decline and unemployment will rise.

When energy costs escalate, there will be a period in which an emphasis on conservation & energy efficiency will occur. This will be like the early 1980s when the price of oil caused the world to become more energy efficient. Smaller cars were purchased, insulation put into houses and lighting changed to efficient bulbs. That will occur again putting off some of the worst problems and again push the dawn of peak oil into the future. The demand destruction will create a new buffer of energy supply upon which we will try to grow again. The system will initially appear to rebalance. There will be a dash for more fuel-efficient vehicles and equipment. The poor and many of the over-leveraged middle class will not be able to afford the investment or the fuel. The rich will outbid the poor for available supplies of energy and conservation methods. Unemployment will increase. People will lose their homes. There will be a major transfer of wealth from the poor and middle class to the rich, much like what took place in the 1930's. Stagflation will occur where you have an inability to grow the economy in the face of rising inflation and interest rates driven by a declining dollar or a rise in energy prices. And then the cycle repeats. There may come a time when hyperinflation steps in. This will occur when everyone knows everything they buy will be selling at a higher price very soon (within days or weeks); therefore everyone spends the cash as soon as possible to beat the price increases. And all of this can or will occur without peak oil.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Now comes the actual decline. Will the FED wait until after the election to raise interest rates to curb inflation?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'T')he call for more exploration and exploitation of oil and gas will become a media event.

[Peleg]

A good risk assessment realizes that there are many possible post peak scenarios. However, I am now of the opinion that within the next decade peak oil will take on the worst of those possible scenarios. After a major economic meltdown in the US within the next two years the world economy will sputter along getting smaller each year while poorer countries will feel the full force of disease unleashed, food shortages, extreme weather, and war over dwindling resources. By no later than 2019 around 25% of the world's population will have died, while at the same time those at the top will have been working very hard to secure their hegemony against the troubles. A world plutocracy will run most of the major powers from behind the scenes and through the proxy of major corporations. The next President will be the last President of the United States of America as we know it today, as peak oil takes the US from the global superpower, to a global player with a regional economy, and then eventually to relocalized economies. All the problems we face will accelerate on the retirement of the baby boomers, peak infrastructure, peak labor, peak oil and natural gas, peak finance. The whole edifice will have crumbled away within three decades.

I hope someone bookmarks this so that we can revisit my prediction in years to come.

Remember there are only three centers of power in the universe: God, the devil, and you. Choose well.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peleg', 'R')emember there are only three centers of power in the universe: God, the devil, and you. Choose well.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ') Like I have said before, it's all about rate and magnitude. But I think the scenario will be a long drawn out affair due to our precarious economic climate which will induce some major demand destruction long before peak oil hits. One caveat; if peak oil is already here, Katy bar the door.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ') Monte you done good!. You done real good! You showed them tinhorns a thing or two about peak decline[with an appropriate colloquial accent on the second syllable, for effect.]

No really. Very prescient. I read that initial post and yes, in fact, the only thing you go wrong, so far, was the interest rate. And the pre-peak addendum. Didn't conventional petroleum peak March 2006?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', ' ') This is the most rational, most realistic scenario I have so far read about Peak Oil!

It's only logical to put demand destruction into the equation, and as I said before I think it wont be one rough ride downhill but rather a rollercoaster ride of uphill and downhill. I even think that Peak Oil will never be "realized" until it already happened, because there will always be periods of cheaper energy, which will support the denial of the reality of peak oil. We see it now, as soon as the oil prizes decline everybody is interpreting it as a relief signal, even if the new price level has doubled from about 20$ to about 40 dollar! The same will happen when the price declines from 100$ to 50$ and so on....

A new great depression could well postpone peak oil for another 20 years...

[MonteQuest]

Is this the future?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', ' ') Or (this just dawned on me) maybe the period between economic peaks progressively extends out so far that there is just never another peak. IOW, there is still oil in the ground but the traditional economy is so weakened it can't revive enough to bump up against capacity. The current "bubbles" in the US economy make for a BIG problem, perhaps The Second Great Depression could make the EIA's prediction of Peak in 2030 turn out to be overly pessimistic, I'll have to meditate on that further after I go turn the thermostat up, LOL.