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Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby FreddyH » Sun 25 May 2008, 21:11:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '
')2008 represents the 20th consecutive year that the media has had to endure these annual proclamations and the usual cornucopia of ramifications...


Just about every energy analyst, commentator, and energy industry expert failed to realize at that time that light sweet crude peaked out in 2005. Even here, that concept was subject to much debate.


You have failed to note that it was my 2005 PO.com postings that the Peak of regular conventional crude had "unceremoniously" passed. At the time, Campbell was looking forward to a Peak of both All Liquids and reg conv in 2006. Admittedly, i was harsh in my criticism of ASPO data and conclusions at that time.

I did not need the flame suit long. Redemption came when TrendLines data was finally accepted with Campbell's admission of his mathematical errors, withdrawal of his pdf newsletter from the server and replacement of it with this revised version:
Image

Tardy submitted figures from the int'l community later pushed the date to its present resting place of 2005.

It was not the first time!

McPeaksters have known since July 2005 that Regular Conventional Oil had peaked. They made no big deal about it 'cuz Campbell was foretelling that his 2006 All Liquids Peak was coming "for sure" in 2007.

Unfortunately, it didn't happen in 2006 or 2007 ... so now we see the late-to-the-party McPeaksters jumping on the RCO bandwagon with the bridesmaid. But the media knows that nobody cares about the RCO Peak. Nobody.

And wide exposure of MegaProject based projections has alerted the MSM that the real peak is postponed to at least 2011...
Last edited by FreddyH on Sun 25 May 2008, 21:32:55, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 25 May 2008, 21:23:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', ' ')And wide exposure of MegaProject based projections has alerted the MSM that the real peak is postponed to at least 2011...


Tell that to the markets. The peak comes when the market says it has, whether that is reality or not.

Peak oil is about economics.

The ability for people to access energy.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby FreddyH » Sun 25 May 2008, 21:43:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', ' ')And wide exposure of MegaProject based projections has alerted the MSM that the real peak is postponed to at least 2011...


Tell that to the markets. The peak comes when the market says it has, whether that is reality or not.

Peak oil is about economics.

The ability for people to access energy.


Prices have been rising since 1999. You confuse supply & demand imbalances with Peak Oil. Peak Oil is the point where monthly/quarterly or annual production attains maximum. With EIA announcing two new monthly plus two new quarterly records in the last six months, Peak Oil is not on the near term horizon...
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 25 May 2008, 21:53:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', ' ') You confuse supply & demand imbalances with Peak Oil. Peak Oil is the point where monthly/quarterly or annual production attains maximum. With EIA announcing two new monthly plus two new quarterly records in the last six months, Peak Oil is not on the near term horizon...


I confuse nothing. The future's market sees supply not meeting demand. And I think they see it as not an imbalance but a reality that cannot be market corrected. We will soon attain maximum production.

That is the economic arrival of peak oil.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 25 May 2008, 21:58:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', ' ') With EIA announcing two new monthly plus two new quarterly records in the last six months, Peak Oil is not on the near term horizon...


That's what was said in 1971 just before the US peaked.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 25 May 2008, 22:14:40

Hi Monte, good to see you posting again.

:)
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sun 25 May 2008, 22:19:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'W')ith EIA announcing two new monthly plus two new quarterly records in the last six months, Peak Oil is not on the near term horizon...
That's illogical. One doesn't follow from the other. And with that February peak being less than 500Kbpd above the July 2006 figure, I would have thought a near term peak was more likely than it not being on the near term horizon.
Last edited by TonyPrep on Sun 25 May 2008, 22:26:32, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby FreddyH » Sun 25 May 2008, 22:21:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', ' ') You confuse supply & demand imbalances with Peak Oil. Peak Oil is the point where monthly/quarterly or annual production attains maximum. With EIA announcing two new monthly plus two new quarterly records in the last six months, Peak Oil is not on the near term horizon...


I confuse nothing. The future's market sees supply not meeting demand. And I think they see it as not an imbalance but a reality that cannot be market corrected. We will soon attain maximum production.


At TrendLines Research, we track the Peak Oil forecasts of 24 practitioners. Only two see peak prior to 2010. One is an investment banker and the other has called "this year" THE PEAK virtually every year since 1989. Sorry MQ, but your musings are baseless and really just wishful thinking ....
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sun 25 May 2008, 22:40:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '
')You have failed to note that it was my 2005 PO.com postings that the Peak of regular conventional crude had "unceremoniously" passed. At the time, Campbell was looking forward to a Peak of both All Liquids and reg conv in 2006. Admittedly, i was harsh in my criticism of ASPO data and conclusions at that time.


Please provide link where you said that.

Frankly I don't believe you said anything like that, but I would happy to be proven wrong if you can just show us.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby FreddyH » Sun 25 May 2008, 23:30:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '
')You have failed to note that it was my 2005 PO.com postings that the Peak of regular conventional crude had "unceremoniously" passed. At the time, Campbell was looking forward to a Peak of both All Liquids and reg conv in 2006. Admittedly, i was harsh in my criticism of ASPO data and conclusions at that time.


Please provide link where you said that.

Frankly I don't believe you said anything like that, but I would happy to be proven wrong if you can just show us.


Don't be silly, DP. You are aware that all my 2004/2005 posts have been deleted from PO.com

Here's a link i found on google, but most here remember the controversy:

see "Critique" "Another controversy was the status of the Hubbert Peak of conventional oil. Hutter claimed throughout 2004 that Campbell's own data illustrated that the Peak had passed unceremoniously in the Spring of 2004. The ASPO Newsletter continued to show the extraction peak in 2005 and/or 2006. Finally in August of 2005, Campbell again relented and began publishing that indeed the Peak had passed in 2004."

Ecozine link

And here the Yahoo EnergyResources Group discuss ASPO's featuring of our website as we made peace:

"And then there's Freddy...

<http://www.peakoil.ie/downloads/newsletters/newsletter58_200510.pdf>

623. Trend-lines
An interesting website (www.trendlines.ca), produced in the Yukon,
includes a comparison of different oil depletion models, illustrating
ASPO's evolving evaluations.

<http://www.trendlines.ca/#Oil>
TrendLines Oil Depletion Scenarios 2005:
<http://www.trendlines.ca/TrendlinesPeakOilDepletionScenariosGraph.gif>

"Oct 4th, 2005 - Colin Campbell has today announced his postponement of ASPO's peak oil target from 2007 to 2010, thus ending our year-long controversy.

Likewise, ASPO has adopted our position that the Hubbert Peak for Conventional Oil (not "all oils") passed by unceremoniously in the Spring of 2004.

TrendLines is honoured and humbled that our collaboration has influenced some of the respected Depletion models. It is our goal that shared data and enlightenment will bring cause many of the scenarios to coalesce. That is very much in the interest of better planning by stakeholders.""

Yahoo EnergyResources link
Last edited by FreddyH on Mon 26 May 2008, 05:00:29, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Sun 25 May 2008, 23:37:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')
Ok then - Why don't you give us your great insights and tell us all
about your long term track record on oil and its effects on the economy.



Are you kidding? I'm not wasting time predicting anything, I'm too busy profitting from other peoples ignorance of the issue.
Freddy RULZ!

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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sun 25 May 2008, 23:37:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '
')You have failed to note that it was my 2005 PO.com postings that the Peak of regular conventional crude had "unceremoniously" passed. At the time, Campbell was looking forward to a Peak of both All Liquids and reg conv in 2006. Admittedly, i was harsh in my criticism of ASPO data and conclusions at that time.


Please provide link where you said that.

Frankly I don't believe you said anything like that, but I would happy to be proven wrong if you can just show us.


Don't be silly, MQ. You are aware that all my 2004/2005 posts have been deleted from PO.com

Here's a link i found on google, but most here remember the controversy:

see "Critique" "Another controversy was the status of the Hubbert Peak of conventional oil. Hutter claimed throughout 2004 that Campbell's own data illustrated that the Peak had passed unceremoniously in the Spring of 2004. The ASPO Newsletter continued to show the extraction peak in 2005 and/or 2006. Finally in August of 2005, Campbell again relented and began publishing that indeed the Peak had passed in 2004."

Ecozine link


Exactly.

Everytime someone here wants you to show us your record, you say you don't have one to show. Newcomers: This has happened before - that is FH says he did something or says something but can't prove it.

You say alot but your words don't add up to much of anything.

PO.com deserves a lot better than this. If you or KTH attack me for what someone else has said again, I'll refer them back to this post.

If you want to attack me, then go ahead and prepare to reap the whirlwind.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sun 25 May 2008, 23:41:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')
Ok then - Why don't you give us your great insights and tell us all
about your long term track record on oil and its effects on the economy.



Are you kidding? I'm not wasting time predicting anything, I'm too busy profitting from other peoples ignorance of the issue.


Well you are predicting something. You are saying that some analysts are wrong and going to be wrong again, and by association with this site, you are implying that I am wrong.

So if you don't want to offer an opinion, just shut up and stop attacking me.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Sun 25 May 2008, 23:43:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', ' ')I'm proud to say that in one recent year (2006) I've came very close to predicting exactly how oil high would go during the year, and I didn't do so bad in other years either.



I say we need to put you in charge of the EIA, ASPO, CERA and the IEA IMMEDIATELY!!

I mean really, considering how poorly everyone else does this forecasting thing, I think you need to put it in a book, get it documented, and start the book selling circuit like Simmons and the rest of the gang.
Freddy RULZ!

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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Sun 25 May 2008, 23:46:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Peak oil is about economics.



Talk about being late to the party....
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sun 25 May 2008, 23:52:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', ' ')I'm proud to say that in one recent year (2006) I've came very close to predicting exactly how oil high would go during the year, and I didn't do so bad in other years either.



I say we need to put you in charge of the EIA, ASPO, CERA and the IEA IMMEDIATELY!!

I mean really, considering how poorly everyone else does this forecasting thing, I think you need to put it in a book, get it documented, and start the book selling circuit like Simmons and the rest of the gang.


Moderators: Please remove this post. I've asked KTH to stop attacking me three seperate times now, and he/she continues to do so.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Mon 26 May 2008, 00:08:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '
')You have failed to note that it was my 2005 PO.com postings that the Peak of regular conventional crude had "unceremoniously" passed. At the time, Campbell was looking forward to a Peak of both All Liquids and reg conv in 2006. Admittedly, i was harsh in my criticism of ASPO data and conclusions at that time.


Please provide link where you said that.

Frankly I don't believe you said anything like that, but I would happy to be proven wrong if you can just show us.


Don't be silly, MQ. You are aware that all my 2004/2005 posts have been deleted from PO.com



Funny how that sort of stuff happens to people who's information, experience or ideas combined with a fair quantity of functioning neurons makes them a target when they don't toe the Dogma Of Doom line, eh Freddy? When those people show up, the regulars get all, [smilie=cussing.gif]

Don't worry, I'd say that around here its a mark of distinction. You deserve [smilie=adora.gif]
Freddy RULZ!

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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Mon 26 May 2008, 00:11:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', ' ')I'm proud to say that in one recent year (2006) I've came very close to predicting exactly how oil high would go during the year, and I didn't do so bad in other years either.



I say we need to put you in charge of the EIA, ASPO, CERA and the IEA IMMEDIATELY!!

I mean really, considering how poorly everyone else does this forecasting thing, I think you need to put it in a book, get it documented, and start the book selling circuit like Simmons and the rest of the gang.


Moderators: Please remove this post. I've asked KTH to stop attacking me three seperate times now, and he/she continues to do so.


Are you kidding me? Paying homage is now considered an attack? Wow..... I considered my statement a compliment considering your track record in predicting the future.
Freddy RULZ!

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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Mon 26 May 2008, 00:13:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')
So if you don't want to offer an opinion, just shut up and stop attacking me.


8O
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Mon 26 May 2008, 00:18:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')
If you want to attack me, then go ahead and prepare to reap the whirlwind.


[smilie=5eek.gif]

In the famous words of the Russian astronaut in the movie Armageddon, and with a thick accent... "Iz dis good....or iz dis bad?"
Freddy RULZ!

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