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Peak Oil * The final sign *

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby vision-master » Sat 10 May 2008, 17:12:00

Chronic fuel shortages in 1st World Countries.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Sat 10 May 2008, 18:46:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'C')hronic fuel shortages in 1st World Countries.


You don't need shortages. The "final sign" will be fuel unaffordable by the masses.
THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby JPL » Sat 10 May 2008, 21:15:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'C')hronic fuel shortages in 1st World Countries.

You don't need shortages. The "final sign" will be fuel unaffordable by the masses.

Sudden, uncontrolled, hithertoo-unforseen, outbreaks of sanity.

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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby vision-master » Sat 10 May 2008, 22:42:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'C')hronic fuel shortages in 1st World Countries.

You don't need shortages. The "final sign" will be fuel unaffordable by the masses.

No, I still think the final sign will be shortages. Unaffordable will come before shortages. Besides, what does unaffordable really mean anyhoo? Shortages will mean NO GAS at the pump. Money will not matter!
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby misterno » Sun 11 May 2008, 00:36:18

In free markets there is no shortage of any kind on any item because we have exchanges.

Whenever there is an item be it oil or iron ore or orange juice or whatever is short on supply, price goes up and demand goes down and the equilibrium is reached.

In the case of oil the the demand for oil in the world is not down so price keeps going up till it hits the equilibrium.

In short, there can never be shortages in free markets. Except temporary situations like war, hurricane etc
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby usncom » Sun 11 May 2008, 01:54:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'I')n free markets there is no shortage of any kind on any item because we have exchanges.
Whenever there is an item be it oil or iron ore or orange juice or whatever is short on supply, price goes up and demand goes down and the equilibrium is reached.
In the case of oil the the demand for oil in the world is not down so price keeps going up till it hits the equilibrium.
In short, there can never be shortages in free markets. Except temporary situations like war, hurricane etc

That's true on paper and in theory but in the real world that logic doesn't hold up especially when you are talking about a commodity that is finite and irreplacable.

"Let them eat cake" if the bread gets too expensive. However, if oil gets too expensive tomorrow for 80% of the population what will they substitute for it? If water shot to $1000 a pint there is no shortage for the few who could afford it but for the rest of the populace they are royally screwed.

You're playing semantics here. Very expensive oil is a SHORTAGE of Affordable oil. Lets just call it what it is....a SHORTAGE.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby Gerben » Sun 11 May 2008, 02:14:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('usncom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'I')n free markets there is no shortage of any kind on any item because we have exchanges.
Whenever there is an item be it oil or iron ore or orange juice or whatever is short on supply, price goes up and demand goes down and the equilibrium is reached.
In the case of oil the the demand for oil in the world is not down so price keeps going up till it hits the equilibrium.
In short, there can never be shortages in free markets. Except temporary situations like war, hurricane etc

That's true on paper and in theory but in the real world that logic doesn't hold up especially when you are talking about a commodity that is finite and irreplacable.
"Let them eat cake" if the bread gets too expensive. However, if oil gets too expensive tomorrow for 80% of the population what will they substitute for it? If water shot to $1000 a pint there is no shortage for the few who could afford it but for the rest of the populace they are royally screwed.
You're playing semantics here. Very expensive oil is a SHORTAGE of Affordable oil. Lets just call it what it is....a SHORTAGE.

Very expensive oil means that it is scarce. There will not be a shortage. It will be there, but you just won't be able to afford it.

At the moment gold is scarce too. There is no shortage. I'd like a golden car, but can't afford it.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby Z » Sun 11 May 2008, 03:56:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', 'A')t the moment gold is scarce too. There is no shortage. I'd like a golden car, but can't afford it.

Then probably you'll find me the price for a live dodo bird. I'd like to buy one.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 11 May 2008, 05:41:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Z', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', 'A')t the moment gold is scarce too. There is no shortage. I'd like a golden car, but can't afford it

Then probably you'll find me the price for a live dodo bird. I'd like to buy one.

You would be asked to pay infinite amount of money.
You could not afford it, so as per logic related to market economy no shortage would be observed. :-D
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby Gerben » Sun 11 May 2008, 05:53:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Z', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', 'A')t the moment gold is scarce too. There is no shortage. I'd like a golden car, but can't afford it

Then probably you'll find me the price for a live dodo bird. I'd like to buy one.

There is a difference between not existent and scarce.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Sun 11 May 2008, 07:31:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'C')hronic fuel shortages in 1st World Countries.

Yes, the key word here is "chronic," such that the demand for oil substantially and permanently exceeds the supply of oil.

But even before that happens, if any of the following occurs as a result of soaring fuel costs, peak oil will have "effectively" arrived:
-- global stock market collapse
-- global hyperinflation causing currencies to become worthless
-- global hyperinflation + global depression causing economic meltdown
-- widespread panic causing a catastrophic run on banks
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby patience » Sun 11 May 2008, 08:51:27

DoomWarrior,
I also think the money troubles will come first, if you want to call that the final sign. For third world countries, unaffordable food is the final sign, and it here, now, for them. I think it must go that way, as relative wealth will determine who gets their sign at any given time.

For the US, it could be a physical shortage of diesel that cripples transport. "Here's yer sign!" per Jeff Foxworthy.

Couldn't resist that.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 11 May 2008, 09:06:34

Remember, we had fuel shortages in the 70's and it happened pretty quick.

Peak Oil production in the good ol USA.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Sun 11 May 2008, 17:23:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'R')emember, we had fuel shortages in the 70's and it happened pretty quick.
Peak Oil production in the good ol USA.

But they were in real terms a "manufactured" shortage. The basic point of Peak Oil is that supply will still be available. The problem lies in how much that supply will cost.

The issues of Peak Oil are not totally inclusive of oil running out. EROEI and the simple ability to be able to afford fuel will be the tell tale signs of TSHTF.

I think in simple terms, if you can afford it then there will be no shortage. Oil producers will always be willing to sell to someone equally willing enough to purchase. Regardless of cost, but for those that can't afford it. Tough titty.
THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sun 11 May 2008, 17:32:44

Last sign,
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('POTUS', 'M')y fellow Americans. I come to you with sober news. World wide production of crude oil has hit its historical height and we are producing less oil today than yesterday. Tomorrow, the world will produce even less oil than today. This decline is irreversible but we retain the ability to overcome it.
blah blah blah blah blah
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 11 May 2008, 18:53:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'R')emember, we had fuel shortages in the 70's and it happened pretty quick.
Peak Oil production in the good ol USA.

But they were in real terms a "manufactured" shortage. The basic point of Peak Oil is that supply will still be available. The problem lies in how much that supply will cost.
The issues of Peak Oil are not totally inclusive of oil running out. EROEI and the simple ability to be able to afford fuel will be the tell tale signs of TSHTF.
I think in simple terms, if you can afford it then there will be no shortage. Oil producers will always be willing to sell to someone equally willing enough to purchase. Regardless of cost, but for those that can't afford it. Tough titty.

Are you talking on a personal basis or societal ? I mean the grocery store was out of bananas today. No bananas means no bananas.

"We have no bananas today".
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Sun 11 May 2008, 20:42:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'A')re you talking on a personal basis or societal ? I mean the grocery store was out of bananas today. No bananas means no bananas.
"We have no bananas today".

I think we can differentiate between the two. No bananas doesn't signify a social collapse.

Seriously, don't even try. The two are simply incomparable. There's a reason it's called Black Gold.

And I mean on a social scale. Over here in the UK, there's a pretty tangible, growing hopelessness when it comes to fuel prices. Yes the tax plays a lot. But people over here are I think being pushed to breaking point.

Where even 5 years ago, the cost of fuel wasn't even a second thought, when you see £5 a gallon (about $10) you have to wonder how soon the collapse will be.
THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby s0cks » Mon 12 May 2008, 09:08:50

Perhaps, but I still think petrol prices will have a long way to go before it's simply unaffordable. Like you said, 5 years ago you didn't give it a second thought. Only now are we having to budget for fuel. Its still not a major outgoing for most people, not compared to rent, mortgage, food, holidays, etc...

Short-term shortages caused by weather, riots, war, etc... is a sign that supply is very tight. Should another Katrina arrive it would hurt a lot.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby sittinguy » Mon 12 May 2008, 09:39:32

I think it has a long way to go still also, gas prices suck, but its not a big deal. I think when it hits $6 that will be when it becomes a real ISSUE. Even at that point people might have to give up thier $80 a month cell phone, boo hoo.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby btu2012 » Mon 12 May 2008, 12:27:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', 'V')ery expensive oil means that it is scarce. There will not be a shortage. It will be there, but you just won't be able to afford it.
At the moment gold is scarce too. There is no shortage. I'd like a golden car, but can't afford it.

Shortage is measured relative to demand, so stop splitting hairs already.

Oil is not a luxury like a golden car, at least in the US it's a NECESSITY.

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