PeakOil is You
Peak Oil * The final sign *
Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
by arretium » Sat 31 May 2008, 17:31:24
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sittinguy', 'I') think it has a long way to go still also, gas prices suck, but its not a big deal. I think when it hits $6 that will be when it becomes a real ISSUE. Even at that point people might have to give up thier $80 a month cell phone, boo hoo.
I don't know if you were around two years ago, but the consensus here on this board was that "once gas hit $ 4 per gallon" the shit was going to hit the fan. I've noticed that as gas increased in price, as we blew by $ 3/gallon, and now $ 4 per gallon, the "consensus" of when TSHTF keeps changing and always seems to be a $ 1 or $ 2 more per gallon than the current price. So, once we hit $ 6/gallon, people will grumble along and then people here on this board and every where else will claim that once gas hits $ 8/gallon then TSHTF...of course, once we get to $ 8/gallon people will say it occurs at $ 10/gallon and so on....
We're like a frog boiling in water. Because it happens (relatively) so slowly, we get used to the warmer water without us realizing that it is killing us. I'm not sure we'll ever know at what price the economy will wither and die. If you asked me 2 years ago, personally, I think I wrote here on this board that it was $ 4- $5 per gallon. No die off off the economy yet. I'm not sure we'll really know until after the fact.
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arretium - Coal
- Posts: 452
- Joined: Mon 04 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
by vision-master » Sat 31 May 2008, 17:35:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('arretium', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sittinguy', 'I') think it has a long way to go still also, gas prices suck, but its not a big deal. I think when it hits $6 that will be when it becomes a real ISSUE. Even at that point people might have to give up thier $80 a month cell phone, boo hoo.
I don't know if you were around two years ago, but the consensus here on this board was that "once gas hit $ 4 per gallon" the crap was going to hit the fan. I've noticed that as gas increased in price, as we blew by $ 3/gallon, and now $ 4 per gallon, the "consensus" of when TSHTF keeps changing and always seems to be a $ 1 or $ 2 more per gallon than the current price. So, once we hit $ 6/gallon, people will grumble along and then people here on this board and every where else will claim that once gas hits $ 8/gallon then TSHTF...of course, once we get to $ 8/gallon people will say it occurs at $ 10/gallon and so on....
We're like a frog boiling in water. Because it happens (relatively) so slowly, we get used to the warmer water without us realizing that it is killing us. I'm not sure we'll ever know at what price the economy will wither and die. If you asked me 2 years ago, personally, I think I wrote here on this board that it was $ 4- $5 per gallon. No die off off the economy yet. I'm not sure we'll really know until after the fact.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow big is the problem? Multiplying production (barrels per year) times the oil price (dollars per barrel) gives a total cost in dollars per year. It's an enormous number; tens of trillions of dollars per year. To put a scale on it, the three thin curves on the graph show the oil cost in contrast to the total world domestic product; the annual value the goods and services added up for all the world's countries. The three curves show the oil cost at one percent, two and a half percent, and five percent of the total world economic output. At $130 this morning, we are at six and a half percent.
Oil production obviously cannot consume 100 percent of the world's income. My intuitive, uninformed guess is that it cannot go above 15 percent. If we see oil at $300 per barrel, we will be looking out over the smoldering ruins of the world's economy.
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic40658.html
- vision-master
