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Peak Oil * The final sign *

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby Revi » Mon 12 May 2008, 13:16:53

I don't think it is a necessity for everybody. You can move very close to your job and ride a bicycle, and heat your house with wood. You can even get one of these and drive for .25 a day.

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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 12 May 2008, 13:25:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') don't think it is a necessity for everybody. You can move very close to your job and ride a bicycle, and heat your house with wood. You can even get one of these and drive for .25 a day.
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Are they made with some plastic (oil) components?
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby JoeW » Mon 12 May 2008, 13:33:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('btu2012', 'S')hortage is measured relative to demand, so stop splitting hairs already.
Oil is not a luxury like a golden car, at least in the US it's a NECESSITY.
Btu

I have no idea what you mean by "relative to demand". I am in agreement with those that believe that crude / gasoline / diesel prices will steadily rise over time. There will be some at the pump, but you just won't buy as much when it's $10/gallon as you do now.

When I look around at all the gluttonous consumption surrounding me in the US, I have to disagree with the statement that oil is a necessity. A certain amount per capita is, of course... but not the ridiculous quantities we currently enjoy.

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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby Revi » Mon 12 May 2008, 14:12:18

When you can't afford it it becomes a luxury. I think we will all be able to afford some gas, but not as much as we buy now. We'll all have to amuse ourselves without burning gas on the weekends. Or it could be that only the rich will be able to afford gas, and they will use it in the stupidest ways possible while the rest of us will be moving things around in oxcarts.

I have noticed that the rich people around here are getting bigger and bigger pickup trucks, while us middle class and poor are having a hard time keeping our small cars running.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby btu2012 » Mon 12 May 2008, 14:30:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') don't think it is a necessity for everybody. You can move very close to your job and ride a bicycle, and heat your house with wood. You can even get one of these and drive for .25 a day.
www.sunnev.com

You might have to pay dearly for a dwelling close to work if you work in a major city. I am sure that the new yorkers around here can explain. :(

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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby btu2012 » Mon 12 May 2008, 14:32:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', 'I') have no idea what you mean by "relative to demand".

Shortage simply means that there's less of the stuff than people/societies/industries need to function.

The US is built around cheap oil, that's why it's a necessity in the current US configuration. You'll need massive reorganization, infrastructure redevelopment etc to reduce reliance on oil in the US.

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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby btu2012 » Mon 12 May 2008, 14:35:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') have noticed that the rich people around here are getting bigger and bigger pickup trucks, while us middle class and poor are having a hard time keeping our small cars running.

Yeah, the social inequality levels are beginning to approach those of a banana republic. Time for people to remember that they have the power to vote.

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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby Roy » Mon 12 May 2008, 15:09:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')hat they have the power to vote

I wish that could make a difference. Something tells me no matter how many people voted for an anti-establishment candidate, that somehow the establishment contender would still win. The current system is too entrenched for any sort of radical change in direction through conventional means -- ie the voting booth.

Joseph Stalin has a famous quote noting that who the votes were cast for doesn't matter. What matters is who's counting the votes.

Electronic voting machines only make this more apparent, given the secrecy surround their source code, and the ease with which they can be 'hacked' to produce desired outcomes.

I read on here somewhere that ES&S finally let out their source code, but have not confirmed it myself. If that's true then I view that as a good sign, but that still leaves Sequoia and Diebold.

This presidential election cycle has confirmed to me that our electoral process is a sham. All three candidates represent the same interests for the most part. The only candidates who dared speak the truth were marginalized, ridiculed openly, and ultimately ignored.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Mon 12 May 2008, 15:18:38

Suppose there's a pipeline that carries oil from point a to point b. Now, suppose that pipeline is west of the great divide. Now, suppose that pipeline ruptures.

Is that a shortage, or a case of supply and demand?

If it's a supply and demand issue, supplies can easily be rerouted to meet soaring demand, and prices will stabilize.

If it's a shortage, supply cannot be brought to market, no matter the price.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby Gerben » Mon 12 May 2008, 16:45:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'S')uppose there's a pipeline that carries oil from point a to point b. Now, suppose that pipeline is west of the great divide. Now, suppose that pipeline ruptures.
Is that a shortage, or a case of supply and demand?
If it's a supply and demand issue, supplies can easily be rerouted to meet soaring demand, and prices will stabilize.
If it's a shortage, supply cannot be brought to market, no matter the price.

Just scarcity. I have a car that's still half-full with diesel. You can buy the diesel (with car if you want to) for only $ 1 mln. I'll use my bicycle till that pipeline is fixed. The weather is quite nice here atm.

Your making up a case here. I don't say a shortage can not exist, but it won't be the major case. Most of the problem of reduced supply will be a higher price. Shortage will only happen where the market fails to do its work.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 12 May 2008, 16:52:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'S')uppose there's a pipeline that carries oil from point a to point b. Now, suppose that pipeline is west of the great divide. Now, suppose that pipeline ruptures.
Is that a shortage, or a case of supply and demand?
If it's a supply and demand issue, supplies can easily be rerouted to meet soaring demand, and prices will stabilize.
If it's a shortage, supply cannot be brought to market, no matter the price.

Just scarcity. I have a car that's still half-full with diesel. You can buy the diesel (with car if you want to) for only $ 1 mln. I'll use my bicycle till that pipeline is fixed. The weather is quite nice here atm.
Your making up a case here. I don't say a shortage can not exist, but it won't be the major case. Most of the problem of reduced supply will be a higher price. Shortage will only happen where the market fails to do its work.

Wrong! When the MOL gets to a point that pipelines lose to much pressure due to lack of product - oil is shut off. The system shuts down.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby Gerben » Mon 12 May 2008, 17:09:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'W')rong! When the MOL gets to a point that pipelines lose to much pressure due to lack of product - oil is shut off. The system shuts down.

Did you even read my comment?
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 12 May 2008, 18:04:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'W')rong! When the MOL gets to a point that pipelines lose to much pressure due to lack of product - oil is shut off. The system shuts down.

Did you even read my comment?

No, it was a auto-reply, do don't respond with this link. ............... :razz:
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby phaeryen » Mon 12 May 2008, 20:12:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('usncom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'I')n free markets there is no shortage of any kind on any item because we have exchanges.
Whenever there is an item be it oil or iron ore or orange juice or whatever is short on supply, price goes up and demand goes down and the equilibrium is reached.
In the case of oil the the demand for oil in the world is not down so price keeps going up till it hits the equilibrium.
In short, there can never be shortages in free markets. Except temporary situations like war, hurricane etc

That's true on paper and in theory but in the real world that logic doesn't hold up especially when you are talking about a commodity that is finite and irreplacable.
"Let them eat cake" if the bread gets too expensive. However, if oil gets too expensive tomorrow for 80% of the population what will they substitute for it? If water shot to $1000 a pint there is no shortage for the few who could afford it but for the rest of the populace they are royally screwed.
You're playing semantics here. Very expensive oil is a SHORTAGE of Affordable oil. Lets just call it what it is....a SHORTAGE.

I love that quote to death, but Marie Antoinette, with great probability, never said it. :) She was demonized and made fun of by the masses to an unprecedented degree, and "let them eat cake" is most probably just some of that, but for some reason it stuck. She wasn't stupid as such, just a product of the completely unsustainable lifestyle the court of france was living at the expense of the masses...
...I see an analogy forming here! :D
Your criticism of the other poster though, I fully agree with. Free market mechanics, though a cool religion with a big cult following, doesn't play out in the real world like it should. Religions often don't.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 12 May 2008, 20:24:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ree market mechanics

Is it that some ppl here think as long as THEY have the moola gas will NOT be an issue? Pure fantasy, ya think.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby vetusfirma » Sat 31 May 2008, 02:28:42

No one is talking about the role of government in all this. They will create a shortage for us to ensure a continued supply for them.

Just like the rice exporting countries in Asia have banned export of rice to ensure their own supplies.

Supply and demand will not affect a command economy.

just a thought.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby ki11ercane » Sat 31 May 2008, 04:01:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'a')nd heat your house with wood.

Which is awesome, until everyone is heating with wood, then you get:

"Peak Wood."

I just started looking for a wood lot today.

I'd rather have morning wood.

Couldn't resist.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby cube » Sat 31 May 2008, 13:53:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ree market mechanics

Is it that some ppl here think as long as THEY have the moola gas will NOT be an issue? Pure fantasy, ya think.

Well actually.......

So long as society + government is still in one piece I believe you can insulate yourself from the world's problems with money. The only time money cannot save your rear end is when there is literally a collapse.

A good example is in the movie Titanic where the rich man tries to bribe his way into getting a lifeboat. The ship crewman throws the money back at the rich man's face and says you can't buy your way out of this mess.
Will society reach that point eventually? --> yes.
Is it going to happen within my lifetime? --> no.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby mos6507 » Sat 31 May 2008, 17:00:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'W')ill society reach that point eventually? --> yes.
Is it going to happen within my lifetime? --> no.

I didn't know you were 90 years old.
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Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *

Unread postby cube » Sat 31 May 2008, 17:31:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'W')ill society reach that point eventually? --> yes.
Is it going to happen within my lifetime? --> no.

I didn't know you were 90 years old.

Last time you said I was only 70 years old!

I'm not getting old that quickly. :?
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