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Re: Another Oil price Record

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby Ferretlover » Fri 09 May 2008, 11:08:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'T')hat's going to put a crimp in summer travel.
I wonder how much of an effect (affect?) this will have on other areas of the economy if people don't buy as much extra gas wanted for summer travel?


it will have a huge effect and nothing can affect that effect.


:lol:
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Re: Another Record ($126.61)

Unread postby Roy » Fri 09 May 2008, 11:11:19

NYMEX Crude -- $126.10/bbl

RBOB $3.19/gal

Round and round and round she goes, where she stops nobody knows.
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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby frankthetank » Fri 09 May 2008, 11:13:10

Pup-
My brother that kind of gets it (the part about us being doomed) says the same exact thing. He has to have it. The stuff is more addicting then any drug out.

I always play really dumb when talking about gas prices/oil prices when talking with others. Its a good way to see how much they really know. Most of the time its mind boggling how stupid people really are.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby Roy » Fri 09 May 2008, 11:17:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ost of the time its mind boggling how stupid people really are


I agree, but I've had a change or perspective in the last 4 years. Now it boggles my mind when the subject oil price arises and someone is actually clued in.

I've come to expect the clueless responses and am surprised by knowledge beyond the common misconceptions that we all know so well.
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Re: Another Record ($119.22)

Unread postby catbox » Fri 09 May 2008, 11:18:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('biofuel13', 'c')b


Man, I almost had it! Looks like 125 by Friday will be more like it.

cb[/quote]

Nice prediction CB. What's your best guess on a date for $200[/quote]

Sooner than we all think.
Anyones guess is as good as the others at this point but, we'll get the oil game going again at work today...maybe we'll hit 127 by the end of the day and someone will win the pot! 127.20 is a good number...I'll go with that today. Why? it just sounds good!

Off to deliver the youngin to school....via bike and trailer....and it's sunny!
Have a good day PO crew!


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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby whereagles » Fri 09 May 2008, 11:23:00

126 broken. I feel like such a NOOBLAR at this game... lol.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby joeltrout » Fri 09 May 2008, 12:38:50

I hope I am not the only one profiting off these record high prices by investing in oil.

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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby darren » Fri 09 May 2008, 14:50:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'I') asked her "at what gas price would you quit driving" and she just shook her head. "I have to drive everywhere. I drive to work, I drive to shop, I will keep driving no matter how high the price gets"


Meh. What she said is not literally true. Gas demand is very inelastic yes, but not *completely* inelastic. Everyone who isn't a multi-millionaire will cut back driving (one way or another) or get a smaller car eventually.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby Novus » Fri 09 May 2008, 15:06:59

This run only has a few more dollars to go before we see another pull back. Whenever something goes up $10 in a week that is speculators. Fundamentals support slow increases over a long period of time. Going back from $30 to $60 took two years and going from $60 to $120 took two more years.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby joeltrout » Fri 09 May 2008, 15:13:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'T')his run only has a few more dollars to go before we see another pull back. Whenever something goes up $10 in a week that is speculators. Fundamentals support slow increases over a long period of time. Going back from $30 to $60 took two years and going from $60 to $120 took two more years.


I agree we will see a pull back but $10 is only an 8% move with these prices. That is definitely not unheard of.

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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby Jack » Fri 09 May 2008, 15:23:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'I') hope I am not the only one profiting off these record high prices by investing in oil.

joeltrout


You're not. 8)
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby UncoveringTruths » Fri 09 May 2008, 15:23:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'T')his run only has a few more dollars to go before we see another pull back. Whenever something goes up $10 in a week that is speculators. Fundamentals support slow increases over a long period of time. Going back from $30 to $60 took two years and going from $60 to $120 took two more years.


That is until the general populace has a Peak Oil epiphany. Image The higher oil goes the higher the amount of stones turned over to find out why. The only thing holding the price back is speculation of gouging, manipulation, Saudi's have all the oil if they would just open the taps etc etc. This is particularly interesting since TPTB want to control speculation by passing what I am calling the "American Oil Trading Controls bill" that is within the current Farm bill.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Fri 09 May 2008, 15:53:49

Just bounced off $126.20 again.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Fri 09 May 2008, 16:09:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'T')his run only has a few more dollars to go before we see another pull back. Whenever something goes up $10 in a week that is speculators. Fundamentals support slow increases over a long period of time. Going back from $30 to $60 took two years and going from $60 to $120 took two more years.


Systems like this can experience non-linear and even discrete changes, especially when market failures are evident. The most notable market failure is the lack of reliable information about oil reserves and the physical state of all of the worlds major fields. Simmons said a report was currently being constructed I think it will be out next year. The other failure we have is allowing Cartels to manage oil prices. The fundamentals are present and expected.

The present supply realities are important but the expectation of less oil in the future is like a switch. Once you flip the switch the light goes on, the market immediately knows that $70 oil is too cheap. In fact oil is so important to our ways of life and hopes for the future that some people will pay any price to secure the luxuries it can provide. That is the price 'catastrophe' which is about to occur.
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Fri 09 May 2008, 16:16:25

BWAAAaaaa!1!!

CNBC just said we're all over reacting to the high price of oil. Seems oil is getting so expensive because "We denominate the value of oil in Dollars and so oil has risen by 100%. But if we denominated oil in Euros, you would see that oil has only increased by 50%, which is only half of the value of oil denominated in Dollars."

Image
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Fri 09 May 2008, 16:28:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'B')WAAAaaaa!1!!

CNBC just said we're all over reacting to the high price of oil. Seems oil is getting so expensive because "We denominate the value of oil in Dollars and so oil has risen by 100%. But if we denominated oil in Euros, you would see that oil has only increased by 50%, which is only half of the value of oil denominated in Dollars."

Image


Which helps us out alot. There is a feedback on the dollar from it's connection to oil. But it is a deeper set of problems than simply that oil is denominated in dollars. It's the size of the Us economy and the impact of higer prices on that. It's the way we have structured our economy around particular modes of life that rely so hevaily on cheap oil. I am tending now to think that most of the problems for the US are related the way we have implemented oil technology, the lifestyle we have chosen for ourselves basd upon being the first really big player in the cheap oil era. I think we would have seen the euro drop if oil were denominated in it as well but not as severely as the dollar has dropped.

Of course I am talking about a small effect here, probably a few tenths of a percent annually, definitely not the near 10% drop we have seen in the last few years. Even if they start denominating oil in euros today there is no remedy for the pain of America.

I like how they are now finding scapegoats though instead of looking directly at the real problems: scarcity, waste, greed, an oil based model for society that is not sustainable.
Last edited by Gandalf_the_White on Fri 09 May 2008, 16:31:28, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby dblk » Fri 09 May 2008, 16:30:21

~$126 just wow. $150 by the end of June?
Last edited by dblk on Fri 09 May 2008, 16:32:46, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby threadbear » Fri 09 May 2008, 16:31:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'T')his run only has a few more dollars to go before we see another pull back. Whenever something goes up $10 in a week that is speculators. Fundamentals support slow increases over a long period of time. Going back from $30 to $60 took two years and going from $60 to $120 took two more years.


I agree we will see a pull back but $10 is only an 8% move with these prices. That is definitely not unheard of.

joeltrout


The prices have doubled in less than 2 years, and have gone up 40% in just a few months. A 40% retracement is a strong possibility, providing the American dollar doesn't weaken appreciably.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby threadbear » Fri 09 May 2008, 16:34:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'B')WAAAaaaa!1!!

CNBC just said we're all over reacting to the high price of oil. Seems oil is getting so expensive because "We denominate the value of oil in Dollars and so oil has risen by 100%. But if we denominated oil in Euros, you would see that oil has only increased by 50%, which is only half of the value of oil denominated in Dollars."

Image


Why is this funny? They're trying to make a point about general inflation and devaluing of the American dollar.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby joeltrout » Fri 09 May 2008, 16:40:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')
The prices have doubled in less than 2 years, and have gone up 40% in just a few months. A 40% retracement is a strong possibility,


40% retracement would equal $75/bbl. When do you predict this will happen? And do you think a strengthing dollar will take oil to $75? It seems that you would need to have the reverse of a perfect storm. A perfect calming of oil markets.

I just don't see this.

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