by shortonoil » Sat 10 May 2008, 10:25:19
dohboi said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')rices have been doubling about every two years since 2000 when they were way down around $10! I see no end in sight for this exponential curve, except perhaps the end of the grand old USD.
There is an end in sight. Extrapolating from the ERoEI curve tells us that it is 13.25 years away. This is analogous to what happened in the lower continental 48 states. Between 1971 and 1976 oil’s energy contribution from those US fields declined by 28.9%.
A similar phenomenon is now occurring world wide, and has been for the last several years as we approach world peak. Increased coal and NG production over the period have picked up some of the slack giving us a real decline rate of about 1.5 to 2% annually. That has been enough to produce a highly stressing world wide economic crisis.
Once global oil production begins its decline, oil’s energy contribution will fall in access of 5% per year and will continue that decline for more than a decade. The effects will be felt world wide and they will be catastrophic.
Available Energy