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Re: Another Oil price Record

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby yesplease » Sat 10 May 2008, 01:31:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'I') see no end in sight for this exponential curve
Cornucopian. ;)
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 10 May 2008, 02:34:51

Yes indeed, we have a wealth of troubles ahead--truly an embarrassment of riches.

Did I see Tapis at $130?
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 10 May 2008, 10:25:19

dohboi said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')rices have been doubling about every two years since 2000 when they were way down around $10! I see no end in sight for this exponential curve, except perhaps the end of the grand old USD.


There is an end in sight. Extrapolating from the ERoEI curve tells us that it is 13.25 years away. This is analogous to what happened in the lower continental 48 states. Between 1971 and 1976 oil’s energy contribution from those US fields declined by 28.9%.

A similar phenomenon is now occurring world wide, and has been for the last several years as we approach world peak. Increased coal and NG production over the period have picked up some of the slack giving us a real decline rate of about 1.5 to 2% annually. That has been enough to produce a highly stressing world wide economic crisis.

Once global oil production begins its decline, oil’s energy contribution will fall in access of 5% per year and will continue that decline for more than a decade. The effects will be felt world wide and they will be catastrophic.


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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby sameu » Sat 10 May 2008, 10:45:36

makes me long to the period of denial :-)
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby Starvid » Sat 10 May 2008, 13:08:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')his is not about oil, it about energy.
Oh my god, here we go again.

This is not about energy, of which we have immense amounts, or even cheap energy, of which we have plenty, but about liquid fuels in general and cheap liquid fuels in particular.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sat 10 May 2008, 13:22:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'M')ost of the MSM will stay in denial mode, and they're explanations and rationalizations will get wackier and zanier, but many will believe because they need to. ...


People in MSM are no different than the general public. They, for the most part, will deny that what is happening is anything but a bump in the road; they will, as they have done for years now, report to the public only what they are permitted to present by TPTB. The Fourth Estate has been infiltrated, contaminated and almost completely morphed into a children's collection of fantasies.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'W')e are so beyond screwed.


You are so right.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 10 May 2008, 13:22:57

Ferretgirl, Amazingly cute ferret. We have lots of wild mink around here, and they are remarkably strong and tough as hell- wolverine like. I imagine ferrets are much the same, cute but tough!
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sat 10 May 2008, 13:25:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'F')erretgirl, Amazingly cute ferret. We have lots of wild mink around here, and they are remarkably strong and tough as hell- wolverine like. I imagine ferrets are much the same, cute but tough!


Ferrets, minks, wolverines, river otters-all the same family. Ferrets are just domesticated, charming (ancestors of the future tribbles! :lol:), and totally adorable!
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Sat 10 May 2008, 18:41:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'F')errets, minks, wolverines, river otters-all the same family. Ferrets are just domesticated, charming (ancestors of the future tribbles! :lol:), and totally adorable!


Nah.

That's reserved for the Guinea Pig.

Image
Guinea Pig

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Tribbles
THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 11 May 2008, 09:41:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')his is not about oil, it about energy.
Oh my god, here we go again.

This is not about energy, of which we have immense amounts, or even cheap energy, of which we have plenty, but about liquid fuels in general and cheap liquid fuels in particular.
No it isn't. The vacuum left by the decrease in available oil will usher in a new level of d00m that we could never deal with. Clearly, there isn't any way to somehow use less oil w/o spending years changing over the vehicle fleet. Clearly, even though peak efficiency for just about any new engine, diesel or gas, is around or above 40%, it would be unpossible to improve it from ~20% right now, or simply use less of it. Speaking of demand, nothing can curb that, except for maybe high prices. ;)
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby idiom » Sun 11 May 2008, 10:10:50

Actually is a apathy crisis.

The global d00m scenarios basically argue about how broadly America takes everyone else down with the ship.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 11 May 2008, 10:30:33

How can America take everyone else down with the ship, do all those other countries have to have America's permission to minimize oil consumption or something?
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby Starvid » Sun 11 May 2008, 10:54:35

Image

If those numbers had been compared to 1970 or 1975 instead of 1980, they would have said -50 % instead of -32 %.

The US is much like Sweden. A big pretty sparsely populated country were people love big strong gas guzzling cars. If the US just does what Sweden did they could first get rid of that +21 % increase (go from 20 mbpd to 16) and then halve consumption, like we did. That would mean consuming 8 mbpd, pretty much eliminating oil imports entirely.

That 12 mbpd cut, taken togheter with the possible saving of 15 mbpd just in emerging market substitution of non-transport sector oil to coal, gas and electricity would go quite a bit.

27 mbpd is not chump change. It's almost the oil output of OPEC. Off course, these changes don't happen overnight. But then, neither does oil depletion.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sun 11 May 2008, 19:30:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'I')f the US just does what Sweden did they could first get rid of that +21 % increase (go from 20 mbpd to 16) and then halve consumption, like we did. That would mean consuming 8 mbpd, pretty much eliminating oil imports entirely.

That 12 mbpd cut, taken togheter with the possible saving of 15 mbpd just in emerging market substitution of non-transport sector oil to coal, gas and electricity would go quite a bit.


It is a good point regarding the excess in the US consumption, however, passenger cars account for 40% of the toal US consumption of oil. Also, natural gas depletes, too. Please redo your calculations based on these corrections.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 12 May 2008, 00:21:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'I')t is a good point regarding the excess in the US consumption, however, passenger cars account for 40% of the toal US consumption of oil..
56% of all passenger vehicles are cars, and 38% are "Other 2 axle, 4 tire vehicles" presumably SUVs/trucks. So... Unless your source meant passenger vehicles and said cars, we likely consume more with passenger vehicle use.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 12 May 2008, 09:34:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'I')t is a good point regarding the excess in the US consumption, however, passenger cars account for 40% of the toal US consumption of oil..
56% of all passenger vehicles are cars, and 38% are "Other 2 axle, 4 tire vehicles" presumably SUVs/trucks. So... Unless your source meant passenger vehicles and said cars, we likely consume more with passenger vehicle use.


EIA Demand Page

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he use of petroleum products as vehicle fuels is classified as "transportation" use. In the United States, in contrast to other regions of the world, about 2/3 of all oil use is for transportation, as shown in the graph. (In most of the rest of the world, oil is more commonly used for space heating and power generation than for transportation.) Gasoline, in turn, accounts for about 2/3 of the total oil used for transportation in the United States. Other petroleum products commonly used for transportation include diesel fuel (used for trucks, buses, railroads, some vessels, and a few passenger autos), jet fuel, and residual fuel oil (used for tankers and other large vessels).


So you have 67% for use in transportation and 61% of that 67% is gasoline use which equates to 40%. Passenger vehicle would be a better term to use than passenger car in this case.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby lowem » Mon 12 May 2008, 12:18:14

Earlier in the day-time over here, Bloomberg was mumbling something about oil prices due for a correction because it had gone up "too far too fast" or something of the sort. I sort of grumbled and remarked to my friend that we'll probably do the reverse.

And here we are, it's night-time this side and morning-time New York side, and with the brand new day, we have a brand new record. Crude oil on NYMEX just went someplace north of $126.30 a while ago.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby lowem » Mon 12 May 2008, 12:27:13

The NYMEX CSO page just got updated.
And the new record is $126.40.

Okay y'all Americans can take over now. I might wake up to a brand new record or a brand new world, who knows :lol:
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Mon 12 May 2008, 12:41:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')kay y'all Americans can take over now. I might wake up to a brand new record or a brand new world, who knows


We'll hold down the fort while you're away =).

Yes, the record is indeed #126.40 but we've backed away from the highs today so far. More rumblings in the US press that this may not be a bubble but may actually be fundamentals. Waking up a little at a time.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 12 May 2008, 14:43:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lowem', 'T')he NYMEX CSO page just got updated.
And the new record is $126.40.

Okay y'all Americans can take over now. I might wake up to a brand new record or a brand new world, who knows :lol:
Head line on bloomberg about a minute ago


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tocks in U.S. Climb as Oil-Price Drop Helps Retailers; Wal-Mart Advances


I swear they just make up shit that sounds vaguely plausible.
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