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Re: Another Oil price Record

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby threadbear » Fri 09 May 2008, 16:46:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')
The prices have doubled in less than 2 years, and have gone up 40% in just a few months. A 40% retracement is a strong possibility,


40% retracement would equal $75/bbl. When do you predict this will happen? And do you think a strengthing dollar will take oil to $75? It seems that you would need to have the reverse of a perfect storm. A perfect calming of oil markets.

I just don't see this.

joeltrout


Demand destruction and political intervention. I don't thing it's highly likely, just a possibility. If prices remain where they are, alternatives will get a major boost, as well.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby Eli » Fri 09 May 2008, 16:49:56

CNBC is a bunch of media whore cheerleaders, they are not making a point they are just trying to keep spirits up.

Actually if they would think about what they are saying they would realize how truly dire the situation is right now.

The dollar is the worlds reserve currency, and sure if Oil was priced in Euros it would be numerically cheaper than in dollars. Too bad we would still have to pay in dollars and our dollars are worth less and less. If they would think for half a second about what would happen if oil does start being priced in Euros around the globe what happens then?

I will tell you, Oil is no longer 126 a barrel it is 226 and rising. Nations around the globe would dump the dollar and quit holding it. Our National Government would be rendered insolvent and other nations would quit buying our debt. Interest rates on everything would shoot up over night and the US economy would be done.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby bodigami » Fri 09 May 2008, 16:55:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dblk', '~')$126 just wow. $150 by the end of June?


Wow, my $160 high by the end of the year may be optimistic... :shock:
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby UncoveringTruths » Fri 09 May 2008, 16:59:11

What is causing the run up?

1. Speculators and hedge fund managers bidding up the price of oil on the World Markets. Spank their wankers says the lawmakers. [smilie=5bullwhip.gif]

2. The value of oil denominated in the lagging dollar. The .75 cent dollar bill. [smilie=evil5.gif]

3. Peak Oil supply not meeting demand. The end is nigh! So drink heavily. [smilie=new_all_coholic.gif]

4. Lack of investment into future projects. How much do you want for that piece of scrap steel. [smilie=profe.gif]

5. It doesn't matter the stuff is just going to get more expensive. [smilie=new_popcornsmiley.gif]

6. It’s the aliens fault for not coming sooner. [smilie=alien.gif]

7. All the above. [smilie=5opera.gif]

I probably have missed a few other speculations of why the run up is happening. But one thing is for sure the signals are ominous.
It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Fri 09 May 2008, 17:06:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'B')WAAAaaaa!1!!

CNBC just said we're all over reacting to the high price of oil. Seems oil is getting so expensive because "We denominate the value of oil in Dollars and so oil has risen by 100%. But if we denominated oil in Euros, you would see that oil has only increased by 50%, which is only half of the value of oil denominated in Dollars."

Image


Why is this funny? They're trying to make a point about general inflation and devaluing of the American dollar.


Duh....

I thought it was kinda funny that they want us to think of oil prices in Euros so that it won't seem like it's going up so much. But we here in the States think in Dollars, not Euros. It's the value of our Dollar we're dealing with, not the value of the Euro. The point being made was a "Duh!" moment and stupid as hell.

What would they have me do? Am I supposed to be pumping fuel and thinking "Gee, it's really not all that bad if I just think of it in Euros. Hmmm...I should take a drive out to the state park on this lovely day."
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Fri 09 May 2008, 17:08:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dblk', '~')$126 just wow. $150 by the end of June?

I'd say August.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby heroineworshipper » Fri 09 May 2008, 17:44:43

Bernanke's April 30 statement is priceless.

> The Committee expects inflation to moderate in
> coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out
> of energy and other commodity prices
People first, then things, then dollars.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Fri 09 May 2008, 18:05:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'T')his run only has a few more dollars to go before we see another pull back. Whenever something goes up $10 in a week that is speculators. Fundamentals support slow increases over a long period of time. Going back from $30 to $60 took two years and going from $60 to $120 took two more years.


I agree we will see a pull back but $10 is only an 8% move with these prices. That is definitely not unheard of.

joeltrout


The prices have doubled in less than 2 years, and have gone up 40% in just a few months. A 40% retracement is a strong possibility, providing the American dollar doesn't weaken appreciably.


Nope.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 09 May 2008, 18:15:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'I') thought it was kinda funny that they want us to think of oil prices in Euros so that it won't seem like it's going up so much.


Yeah, psyops. Maybe they'll try discussing the cost of oil at 1,166,256 Indonesian Rupiahs/barrel!
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby oowolf » Fri 09 May 2008, 19:11:55

$150: July 28
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 09 May 2008, 20:11:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') 40% retracement is a strong possibility, providing the American dollar doesn't weaken appreciably.


As much as this has been discussed its still not understood very well. This is not about oil, it about energy. The amount of oil we have is irrelevant without understanding the amount of energy that it delivers. We use very little oil for anything other than an energy source.

The energy contribution of oil is declining, and it is declining at a fairly constant rate. Because the decline rate is constant, it is continually extracting a larger percentage of the available energy that is remaining. We are subtracting a constant amount from a declining balance.

Example: if you had $10 in the bank and you took out $1, you would reduce you balance by 10%. If you had $5 and took out $1 you would reduce your balance by 20%.

The same is true of oil. When its ERoEI was 100:1 and it was dropping by 1 unit per year, the loss on a fixed quantity was only 1%. The ERoEI went from 100:1 to 99:1. With oil production going up for many years this was not noticed, as increased production hid the decline.

Oil production is now stagnant. With the ERoEI of oil having fallen at the well head to less than 20:1, and with the ERoEI at the consumer at 7 or 8:1, each drop (now about .5% per year) is taking a huge bit out of our available energy budget.

That is, it is not oil that is getting scarce, it is the energy that it can deliver that is getting scarce. Next year the world’s energy budget will decline, unless coal and NG are ramped up, by 6.25 to 7.1%.

Like they are doing now, all energy prices will continue to skyrocket!

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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby Jack » Fri 09 May 2008, 20:13:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oowolf', '$')150: July 28


Could well be...but we're heavily overbought. I wouldn't be surprised by a little $10 drop just prior to the next advance.

Enough to give the cornucopians hope...

And then crush that hope...

8)
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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby Daculling » Fri 09 May 2008, 21:52:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '$')125.26 @ 7:28 am CT.


Your ferret is starting to look worried..........


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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby AlCzervik » Fri 09 May 2008, 22:07:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'P')up-
My brother that kind of gets it (the part about us being doomed) says the same exact thing. He has to have it. The stuff is more addicting then any drug out.


I think somebody has this in his/her sig, but Vonnegut was right.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ere’s what I think the truth is: We are all addicts of fossil fuels in a state of denial, about to face cold turkey.

And like so many addicts about to face cold turkey, our leaders are now committing violent crimes to get what little is left of what we’re hooked on.

http://www.inthesetimes.com/article/cold_turkey/
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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby Homesteader » Fri 09 May 2008, 22:23:12

[quote="AlCzervik"

I think somebody has this in his/her sig, but Vonnegut was right.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ere’s what I think the truth is: We are all addicts of fossil fuels in a state of denial, about to face cold turkey.

And like so many addicts about to face cold turkey, our leaders are now committing violent crimes to get what little is left of what we’re hooked on.

http://www.inthesetimes.com/article/cold_turkey/[/quote]

That was a great read, thanks.
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 09 May 2008, 22:27:43

Which comes first, back to $100.00, or up to $150.00 ?
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 09 May 2008, 22:50:59

Armageddon said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hich comes first, back to $100.00, or up to $150.00 ?


I would image that it will depend on how fast finished product prices can advance. A 10% fluctuation in the market is sort of the norm, and has nothing to do with energy. It has more to do with the physiology of the traders, but $100 would be surprising unless another Ghawar was found under the White House!
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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby Revi » Fri 09 May 2008, 23:20:48

I hope it comes down a bit around June, so I can buy next winter's heating oil. It's probably going to retrench a bit, when people take profits. Nothing heads straight up without backing off once in a while.

Just my guess. I have been wrong before.
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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby Ferretlover » Fri 09 May 2008, 23:33:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daculling', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '$')125.26 @ 7:28 am CT.

Your ferret is starting to look worried..........

ImageImage


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Re: Another Record ($126.20)

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 10 May 2008, 01:26:47

threadbear wrote:

"The prices have doubled in less than 2 years..."

Prices have been doubling about every two years since 2000 when they were way down around $10! I see no end in sight for this exponential curve, except perhaps the end of the grand old USD.

Most of the MSM will stay in denial mode, and they're explanations and rationalizations will get wackier and zanier, but many will believe because they need to.

So even as we slide toward the end, there is essentially no discussion at the highest levels of policy making about taking measures that might have some chance of slightly cushioning the blow and plan for the next stages. Everyone living today has lived their whole life in a world of ever-increasing oil availability, so it is nearly impossible for pretty much anybody to imagine a world with ever-decreasing oil availability.

We are so beyond screwed.
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