by shortonoil » Fri 09 May 2008, 20:11:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') 40% retracement is a strong possibility, providing the American dollar doesn't weaken appreciably.
As much as this has been discussed its still not understood very well. This is not about oil, it about energy. The amount of oil we have is irrelevant without understanding the amount of energy that it delivers. We use very little oil for anything other than an energy source.
The energy contribution of oil is declining, and it is declining at a fairly constant rate. Because the decline rate is constant, it is continually extracting a larger percentage of the available energy that is remaining. We are subtracting a constant amount from a declining balance.
Example: if you had $10 in the bank and you took out $1, you would reduce you balance by 10%. If you had $5 and took out $1 you would reduce your balance by 20%.
The same is true of oil. When its ERoEI was 100:1 and it was dropping by 1 unit per year, the loss on a fixed quantity was only 1%. The ERoEI went from 100:1 to 99:1. With oil production going up for many years this was not noticed, as increased production hid the decline.
Oil production is now stagnant. With the ERoEI of oil having fallen at the well head to less than 20:1, and with the ERoEI at the consumer at 7 or 8:1, each drop (now about .5% per year) is taking a huge bit out of our available energy budget.
That is, it is not oil that is getting scarce, it is the energy that it can deliver that is getting scarce. Next year the world’s energy budget will decline, unless coal and NG are ramped up, by 6.25 to 7.1%.
Like they are doing now, all energy prices will continue to skyrocket!
Available Energy