http://www.cnbc.com/id/24190444
$117.
This thread should never, never go away.
Let's make this thread a little monument to denial. When the paper has the $150 a barrel headline, I want to be able to pop into this forum and smile, fondly remembering the good ol' days.
PeakOil is You
WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THAN $100
Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
by RainShadow » Fri 18 Apr 2008, 19:29:43
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Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
by zzzpeakoil » Fri 18 Apr 2008, 20:57:27
This thread should be moved to the "Comedy" or "Humour" section, or if there is no such section, create one special for this thread! How funny!
And also funny it is the conviction with which the autor named the title.. all in CAPS ... guess what !! OIL ALREADY IS 17% more than YOU SAID IT WILL NEVER BE! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
And also funny it is the conviction with which the autor named the title.. all in CAPS ... guess what !! OIL ALREADY IS 17% more than YOU SAID IT WILL NEVER BE! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
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Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
by Cyrus » Sat 19 Apr 2008, 02:28:55
This is one I'll look back on in a few years..
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Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
by GreyGhost » Sat 19 Apr 2008, 10:58:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'A')t least 1 year
So the subject of this thread should really be:
WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100*
* aside from brief periods of more than $100, which will be considered irrelevant because they are only 12 months.
Dude, admitting you're wrong is a very respectable thing to do.
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Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
by timmac » Tue 22 Apr 2008, 22:42:10
4-22-08 OIL IS NOW $120.00 PER BARREL..
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Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
by cube » Tue 22 Apr 2008, 23:26:48
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GreyGhost', '.')..
Dude, admitting you're wrong is a very respectable thing to do.
Even the Catholic church eventually.........admitted that the Earth revolves around the sun. Dude, admitting you're wrong is a very respectable thing to do.
you know what year that was?
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Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
by peak » Sat 26 Apr 2008, 06:31:46
The reason why the oil futures are about the same price as current oil, I don't know.
Maybe its because oil companies are selling the oil at current market prices but to deliver in the future to generate cash now and deliver later. Open interest is also lower.
http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_csf.aspx
DEC 2015 is just $107.49 a barrel
Maybe its because oil companies are selling the oil at current market prices but to deliver in the future to generate cash now and deliver later. Open interest is also lower.
http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_csf.aspx
DEC 2015 is just $107.49 a barrel
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Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
by timmac » Sat 26 Apr 2008, 22:18:31
DEC 2015 is just $107.49 a barrel
How can anyone see that far in the future and say oil is going to be $107 per barrel in 2015,, Thats crazy,, nobody not even wall street knows what is going to happen next week,, it's all guess work and a little gambling,, Thats all.....
How can anyone see that far in the future and say oil is going to be $107 per barrel in 2015,, Thats crazy,, nobody not even wall street knows what is going to happen next week,, it's all guess work and a little gambling,, Thats all.....
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Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
by misterno » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 13:54:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'D')EC 2015 is just $107.49 a barrel
How can anyone see that far in the future and say oil is going to be $107 per barrel in 2015,, Thats crazy,, nobody not even wall street knows what is going to happen next week,, it's all guess work and a little gambling,, Thats all.....
How can anyone see that far in the future and say oil is going to be $107 per barrel in 2015,, Thats crazy,, nobody not even wall street knows what is going to happen next week,, it's all guess work and a little gambling,, Thats all.....
I aggree totally. But it is hard to understand how a risk management in say an airline company would hedge their fuel costs if nothing is certain. Tough job if you ask me.
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Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
by Last_Laff » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 14:06:08
This thread is stupid. This is to prove the poster is a denialist. 
"Panic is not a strategy." - BigTex
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Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
by Gandalf_the_White » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 21:18:20
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'D')EC 2015 is just $107.49 a barrel
How can anyone see that far in the future and say oil is going to be $107 per barrel in 2015,, Thats crazy,, nobody not even wall street knows what is going to happen next week,, it's all guess work and a little gambling,, Thats all.....
How can anyone see that far in the future and say oil is going to be $107 per barrel in 2015,, Thats crazy,, nobody not even wall street knows what is going to happen next week,, it's all guess work and a little gambling,, Thats all.....
I aggree totally. But it is hard to understand how a risk management in say an airline company would hedge their fuel costs if nothing is certain. Tough job if you ask me.
Even if we assume that the price of oil is a random walk we still can make an informed guess about next week.
Random walk means that the difference between price on two consecutive time periods is distributed as a normal random variable with mean zero and some constant variance. That means we know the price will be within two standard deviations of this weeks price 90% of the time. That may not seem like much information but it is enough to make some general plans. The fact is the oil price in this regime has much more memory than a random walk model, you can see this by plotting and exponential fit to the price of oil over the last 8 years. The R-square is high and the year over year is at about 15% increase. Comparing that increase year over year you see the rate of price increase is actually increasing, this shows that supply and demand are diverging at the second derivative at least. Adding to our certainty is the underlying causal arguments that equate increased demand in third world markets(India and China) and flat supply growth, via basic economic theory, with upward price pressure. The increased volatility is also predictable as a consequence of a tight market.
The question we should shift this thread to is
Will oil sell for less than $100 per barrel ever again?
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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